{"id":17454,"date":"2020-07-29T09:01:40","date_gmt":"2020-07-29T09:01:40","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/revistaidees.cat\/analisis\/diari-de-les-idees\/diari-de-les-idees-28\/"},"modified":"2020-07-30T08:56:49","modified_gmt":"2020-07-30T08:56:49","slug":"diari-de-les-idees-28","status":"publish","type":"newspaper","link":"https:\/\/revistaidees.cat\/en\/analisis\/diari-de-les-idees\/diari-de-les-idees-28\/","title":{"rendered":"Diari de les idees 28"},"content":{"rendered":"\n

The last edition of the Diari de les idees<\/em> before the holiday break once again reflects the concern about the resurgence of Covid-19 in our territory, which means the economic situation could worsen dramatically after a tourist season that professionals in the sector already give almost lost. At the same time, we continue to observe and analyse the main issues that stand out on the international, Catalan and European agenda.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

In The New\nYork Times<\/em><\/a> Rush Sharma analyzes how the coronavirus is\naccelerating the retraction in national economies that began with the 2008\nglobal financial crisis. Governments are increasingly taking control of all\naspects of economic life, accumulating public debt to keep growth alive and\nimposing new barriers to foreign trade and immigration. Despite their mastery\nof technology, the United States and China are becoming overly indebted and\ntheir governments have been widely criticized for mismanagement of the pandemic\nand in this context it is quite likely that the big winner will be Germany. Its\nresponse to the pandemic has highlighted its strengths – efficient government,\nlow debt, a reputation for industrial excellence and a growing ability to build\ntechnology companies in a world dominated by the American and Chinese Internet\ngiants. A global situation, then, characterized once again by the tense\nrelations between the two superpowers that Julian Borger discusses in The\nGuardian<\/em><\/a> following the new increase in tension between the\nUnited States and China as a result of the closure of the Chinese consulate in\nHouston amid accusations that it was a centre for espionage, and the closure of\nthe US mission in the Chinese city of Chengdu in retaliation. Trump’s\nwithdrawal from world leadership leaves the US in a very bad position to lead\nthe fight against China’s hegemonic claims. Indeed, the U.S. departure from the\nWHO and the failure of the Trump administration to respond to the coronavirus\npandemic have greatly complicated the task of U.S. diplomats to convince\nforeign governments to make common cause against China. In addition, in Foreign Policy<\/em><\/a>\nStephen M. Walt warns of how Washington’s status as a superpower has been\ndeclining for years and how Trump’s management of the pandemic is bringing it\ndown. Indeed, the US president’s disastrous management is producing long-term\ndebilitating effects that will further accelerate America’s decline. Even if he\nis defeated in November and a Joe Biden administration does almost everything\nright, the consequences of Trump’s reign of flaw will continue to be felt for\nmany years to come.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Regarding Catalonia Francesc-Marc \u00c0lvaro analyses in La\nVanguardia<\/em><\/a> the double reality of the pro-independence movement today:\npolitical prisoners remember the pending trip to Ithaca while President Torra\nand his ministers have to deal with the pandemic. This disconcerting clash\nlimits the margin of political response of the parties involved and so it says\na lot about the mood of the pro-independence base that Jordi Cuixart, president\nof \u00d2mnium and the only prisoner who does not belong to any party, is perceived\nas the great hope: people like his speech because it is based on solemn\nprinciples and moral reasons. On the other hand, Josep Ramoneda argues in El\nPa\u00eds<\/em><\/a> that the lightness of taking a decision they were not\nprepared for, has had a high price for those responsible and has put the\ncountry into a long undertow. Three years of repression, frustration and wear\nand tear, with no clear strategic horizon in sight. In between, the pandemic\nhas finished damaging the scenario, with a worn-out government that has wanted\nto present itself as the best of its kind in the management of the health\ncrisis, ending up trapped like everyone else. So right now on the political\nagenda and on the electoral horizon, along with the fate of the independence\nproject, is the health crisis, the economic crisis and the educational crisis. Moreover,\nnow it is not enough to say that we would do better alone. In short, we must\nask if there is anyone within the pro- independence movement with sufficient\nauthority to lift the taboo, to say that the programme of maximums is not the\norder of the day, and to offer an integrating project that will generate shared\nspaces for an economic, social and political reconstruction in which at least\nPodemos and the socialists do not feel alienated. At the same time, the serious\ncrisis of the Spanish monarchy is being analysed in The\nEconomist<\/em><\/a> following revelations about the business and other\nshady activities of former King Juan Carlos, where it is emphasized that while Felipe\nVI has largely fulfilled his promise of a renewed monarchy for a new era, he\nnow faces the prospect that his father will be accused, even though as King\nEmeritus Juan Carlos can only be tried in the Supreme Court, and prescription\nmay save him. Already expelled from the country three times between 1808 and\n1975, the Spanish Bourbons are still on probation while republican sentiment is\ngrowing. If today the monarchy is perhaps not entirely condemned, it is no less\ntrue that Juan Carlos is a toxic figure and that Felipe VI will have to fight\nhard to regain respect and trust for an institution that currently arouses\nlittle sympathy.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Halfway between Spanish and European political news,\nEnric Juliana celebrates in La\nVanguardia<\/em><\/a> the agreement obtained in extremis at the last meeting\nof the European Council and considers that it has a truly historic scope\ninsofar as, for the first time, the European Union decided to get into debt to\nface the disastrous economic consequences of the Covid-19. It is therefore the\nfirst mutualisation of debt to deal with the calamity, which the author\ndescribes as the ‘Hamiltonian moment’. Politically, the European agreement\noffers a constructive horizon to Spain, a country in which at least five major\ncrises are currently unfolding: a health crisis, an economic crisis, an\ninstitutional crisis, a territorial crisis and a political reputation crisis.\nIt will not be easy to solve them, but at this point, it is possible to draw a\nhorizon of collective effort ten years from now. This agreement is also\nanalysed by Laura Greenhaigh and Lili Bayer in Politico<\/em><\/a> <\/em>where\nthey point out that the Multiannual Financial Framework (MFF) for the period\n2021-2027 will be of \u20ac1.074 billion and will be reinforced by a \u20ac750bn EU\nrecovery fund as part of the innovative plan that will also see European\ncountries borrowing together on financial markets for the first time. In\ncontrast, The\nEconomist<\/em><\/a> adds nuances to the statements highlighting the\n‘Hamiltonian moment’ that many analysts wanted to see in the agreement,\nstressing that the European Council’s agreement breaks two historical taboos.\nFirst, European leaders have agreed that the European Commission, acting on\nbehalf of the member states, could incur debt on an unprecedented scale. The\nNGEU (Next Generation EU) will be financed by six-year loans, with bonds issued\nwith maturities extending to 2058. 750 billion will be distributed in the form\nof grants and therefore will not add to the debt burden of governments, thus\ncrossing a red line on significant fiscal transfers within the EU. However, the\narticle considers that the agreement does not come to be the “Hamiltonian\nmoment” that some had hoped for, since no one has proposed to mutualise\nthe debts inherited from the EU countries; not even the new common debt will\nenjoy solidarity guarantees. In addition, the question of how to pay it has\nbeen left for later. Finally, the agreement raises two issues of concern. First,\nthe price demanded by the frugals. To preserve recovery subsidies, the cuts\nwill affect so-called “future-oriented” areas such as research,\nhealth care and climate adjustment. And second, how will it be done to prevent\ncountries that undermine the rule of law, such as Hungary and Poland, from\naccessing subsidies?<\/p>\n\n\n\n

In this sense, Branko Milanovi\u0107 states in Social\nEurope<\/em><\/a> his concern about the dangers facing democracy and\nargues that the historic decisions of today’s authoritarian leaders will leave\na legacy that is almost impossible to reverse in the future. To demonstrate\nthis, he points to four recent political decisions by four major world leaders as\nattempts to tie the hands of their successors by making the decisions\nirreversible, thus ensuring their own political immortality: Russian President\nVladimir Putin’s decision to annex the Crimea; his Chinese counterpart Xi\nJinping’s abrogation of Hong Kong’s autonomy; Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin\nNetanyahu’s decision to annex parts of the occupied Palestinian territories;\nand Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdo\u011fan’s decision to turn Hagia Sophia into\na mosque. All these leaders, who have been in power for many years now, believe\nthat the best guarantee that a policy will be maintained is to make it so that\nit is reversible only if there is a total national defeat. This not only makes\nthe policy more enduring – total defeats are rare – but ensures the leader a\nposterity even in the event of a defeat. This democratic concern is shared by\nMario Ricciardi in Le\nGrand Continent<\/em><\/a> where, by analyzing the long history of epidemics, he\nwonders whether the coronavirus will cause the resurgence of the Leviathan and,\nif so, what form the monster will take this time. However, he states that it is\ndifficult to imagine a new Hobbesian solution; the fear of the anomy produced\nby the effects of the disease as a lever to legitimize the establishment of a\npower that guarantees security could open the way, in the current\ncircumstances, to a drift towards a capitalist society of vigilance and not\ntowards a fundamentally liberal commitment. Similarly, Seth Kaplan warns from\nthe pages of Foreign\nPolicy<\/em><\/a> that the human rights situation in the world is in\nrecession and over the past 14 years, political rights and civil liberties have\ndeclined worldwide. Authoritarian states such as China are increasingly\nsuccessful in arguing throughout Asia, Africa, and the Middle East that\neconomic stability and progress depend on significant curtailments of basic\nfreedoms such as freedom of expression and legal procedures. The growing\ninfluence of China, Russia, and other authoritarian regimes thus means that,\nfor the first time since the 1970s, liberal democracy faces an alternative\npolitical framework worldwide.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

From the economic perspective, Ilias Alamian warns in Open\nDemocracy<\/em><\/a> that the narratives of the resurgence of state\ncapitalism are far from innocent. He believes that the emergence of these\nnarratives are not coincidental and must be placed in the context of a series\nof interrelated geopolitical and geo-economic transformations, including a\nshift in the centre of gravity of the global economy from the North Atlantic to\nthe Pacific Rim, the dispersion of power in the global economy away from the\ntraditional centres of power in the West, and the multiplication of forms of\nassertion of state authority in the economy and society. A State that, as\nAriane Auma\u00eetre Balado points out in Slate<\/em><\/a>, after\nten years of economic instability and pending structural reforms, is going\nthrough a very delicate time in the countries of southern Europe (Spain,\nGreece, Italy, Portugal). With segmented labour markets, a high degree of\nprecariousness and unstable social protection, the welfare state in southern\nEurope will find it more difficult than its northern neighbours to cope with\nthe impact of Covid-19. However, there are some reasons for reasonable optimism\nwith, for example, the fact that the countries in this region of Europe have\nmanaged to put in place a rapid response to protect their citizens in terms of\nwork and income, facilitating the conditions of access to unemployment benefits\nin order to cover as many households as possible. In addition, the pandemic has\naccelerated structural reforms, such as the introduction of a minimum income in\nSpain, which will promote more inclusive social protection. In the opinion of\nthe analysts of The\nEconomist<\/em><\/a> these measures are not exempt from danger since this\nnew era we are entering has four defining characteristics. The first is the\nscale of loans made to governments and the seemingly unlimited potential to\nincrease them further. The second is the implementation of the currency\nmachine. The central banks of the United States, Britain, the euro zone and\nJapan have created new money reserves worth some $3.7 trillion by 2020. Third,\nthe growing role of the state as the main distributor of capital and, finally,\nlow inflation. The absence of upward pressure on prices means that there is no\nimmediate need to curb the growth of central bank balance sheets or to raise\nshort-term interest rates from their minimum level of around zero. However, the\nnew era also presents serious risks. If inflation shoots up unexpectedly, the\nwhole debt edifice will tremble, as central banks will have to raise their\ninterest rates and in turn pay large amounts of interest on the new reserves\nthey have created to buy bonds. In addition, even if inflation remains low, the\nnew machinery is vulnerable to attacks from different pressure groups.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Some pressure groups that, as Ferm\u00edn Koop argues in Open\nDemocracy<\/em><\/a> are making that despite the Covid-19 crisis the\nresponses to climate change are intensifying the trends that existed before the\npandemic. National and sub-national institutions that gave generous subsidies\nto fossil fuel production and consumption have revived oil, gas and coal. These\npolicies will therefore delay economic recovery, the energy transition and\nprogress towards laying the foundations for a low-carbon economy. Ultimately,\nrecovery spending must be drastically redirected to support clean energy as an\ninvestment in the future, rather than subsidizing the polluting policies of the\npast. This point of view is taken up with great emphasis by Ernesto Vidal in CTXT<\/em><\/a> where\nhe denounces the traps of green capitalism and warns that the cost of\neliminating most greenhouse gas emissions is high since it is considered that\nmoving to an energy model in which renewable energies provide 80% of the energy\nwould cost about $15 billion. In total, the bill for reducing net emissions to\nzero could be as high as $50 billion, according to a study by Morgan Stanley.\nIt may seem an extraordinary sum, but it pales in comparison with what it would\ncost not to do so. According to a study published in the journal Nature<\/em>,\nreducing emissions to the Paris Accord target of keeping the temperature at\n1.5-2\u00b0C above pre-industrial levels would cost the economy more than $600\nbillion by 2100, but doing nothing would cost up to $2,197 billion. This\nconcern is also shared by Vanessa Buth in Social\nEurope<\/em><\/a> where she argues that the European Green Deal is unlikely\nto be sufficient to achieve the climate objectives of the Paris Agreement as it\nremains a new growth strategy, based on the same ideology that has led us to\nthe climate crisis. Although the aim is to reduce carbon emissions, it allows\nfor the continued extraction and consumption of unsustainable and non-renewable\nresources, with natural gas – specifically liquefied natural gas, which is less\ncarbon-intensive – as an important part of the energy strategy for a\n(indefinite) transition period, including carbon generation and storage (which\nis a long-term strategy by default).<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Finally, in the field of innovation and new\ntechnologies, Elizabeth Sherwood-Randall analyses from the pages of Foreign\nAffairs<\/em><\/a> the concept of strategic stability in the light of\ntechnological changes. During the Cold War, especially when mutually assured\ndestruction became an accepted logic between the United States and the Soviet\nUnion, the pursuit of strategic stability provided a framework for managing the\nexistential risks associated with massive nuclear arsenals. Meanwhile, new\ntechnologies are presenting their own challenges to this concept of escalation.\nConsequently, the traditional approach to strategic stability may no longer be\nsufficient to manage current risks. Even with the resurrection of arms control\nagreements that are now being dismantled, there is reason to doubt that\nstrategic stability, at least as understood in the old paradigm, can be\nrestored or preserved. A stability that can often hide very dangerous aspects\nas explained in The\nGuardian<\/em><\/a> by Darren Byler and Carolina Sanchez Boe where they\ndenounce a global phenomenon they call “terror capitalism” that\njustifies the exploitation of subjugated populations by defining them as\npotential terrorists or security threats. It mainly generates profits in three\ninterconnected ways. First, generous state contracts are awarded to private\ncompanies to develop and deploy police technologies to monitor and manage\ntarget groups. Then, using the vast amounts of biometric and media data\nextracted from these groups, private companies improve their technologies and\nsell retail versions of them to other states and institutions, such as schools.\nFinally, all this makes the target groups an immediate source of cheap labour, by\ncoercion either directly or indirectly through stigma.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

The last edition of the Diari de les idees before the holiday break once again reflects the concern about the resurgence of Covid-19 in our territory, which means the economic situation could worsen dramatically after a tourist season that professionals in the sector already give almost lost. At the same time, we continue to observe and analyse the main issues that stand out on the international, Catalan and European agenda. In The New York Times Rush Sharma analyzes how the coronavirus is accelerating the retraction in national economies that began with the 2008 global financial crisis. Governments are increasingly taking\u2026<\/p>\n","protected":false},"featured_media":77128,"template":"","category_newspaper":[139],"segment":[],"subject":[],"class_list":["post-17454","newspaper","type-newspaper","status-publish","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category_newspaper-139"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"\nDiari de les idees 28 – IDEES<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/revistaidees.cat\/en\/analisis\/diari-de-les-idees\/diari-de-les-idees-28\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Diari de les idees 28 – IDEES\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"The last edition of the Diari de les idees before the holiday break once again reflects the concern about the resurgence of Covid-19 in our territory, which means the economic situation could worsen dramatically after a tourist season that professionals in the sector already give almost lost. At the same time, we continue to observe and analyse the main issues that stand out on the international, Catalan and European agenda. In The New York Times Rush Sharma analyzes how the coronavirus is accelerating the retraction in national economies that began with the 2008 global financial crisis. 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