{"id":20372,"date":"2020-09-16T06:26:07","date_gmt":"2020-09-16T06:26:07","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/revistaidees.cat\/analisis\/diari-de-les-idees\/diari-de-les-idees-29\/"},"modified":"2020-09-16T14:00:05","modified_gmt":"2020-09-16T14:00:05","slug":"diari-de-les-idees-29","status":"publish","type":"newspaper","link":"https:\/\/revistaidees.cat\/en\/analisis\/diari-de-les-idees\/diari-de-les-idees-29\/","title":{"rendered":"Diari de les idees 29"},"content":{"rendered":"\n

We resume the publication of the Diari de les idees<\/em> after the holiday period and we do so with a more complicated situation than could have been expected at the beginning of the summer with respect to the Covid-19 pandemic and after more than six months since the state of alarm was declared. The truce that the summer break should have meant has not been the case and the constant increase in contagion and the risks of new outbreaks pose a complicated return to activity. You can check these websites to follow the latest data on the evolution of the pandemic around the world: those of the Johns Hopkin University<\/a> and the Financial Times<\/em><\/a>, which offer updated data in real time, and the geopolitical observatory of the coronavirus Le Grand Continent<\/em><\/a>. Moreover, Naci\u00f3 Digital<\/em><\/a> offers every day updated maps by regions and cities with the evolution of the pandemic in Catalonia in terms of cases of infection, rate of outbreak and speed of spread of the virus.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

From IDEES we continue with our review of the most important current issues and we start with the international political situation, where as the date of the presidential election in the United States approaches some alarms are already sounding in the Democratic Party because the victory cannot be taken for granted. Although for months now Joe Biden has held a comfortable lead in all the polls, the situation is beginning to change in some of the swinging states that are decisive for obtaining a majority in the Electoral College, such as Wisconsin and Pennsylvania. This is analysed by Susan B. Glasser in The New Yorker<\/em><\/a> <\/em> and Ronald Brownstein in The Atlantic<\/em><\/a>, where they warn that Biden’s current lead over Trump is the same as that enjoyed by Hillary Clinton four years ago, with at the end the well-known result. Brownstein points out that the key element of the election will not be the ideological factor as Trump’s polarising presidency might lead to believe, but rather those US citizens tired of the chaos surrounding his presidency. Moreover, very especially the events that have marked the end of his term: the fight against the pandemic and racial injustices. In connection with this last aspect, Nate Rosenblatt warns in Slate<\/em><\/a> that, irrespective of the result of this election, the risk of political violence becoming entrenched in the United States is high and is already becoming a reality in some parts of the country. In The New Yorker, Michael Luo<\/a> links political violence to the history, theology and culture of the white churches in the United States, which contribute to reinforcing racist attitudes. Indeed, despite the fact that these churches are struggling to eradicate the legacy of the slavist religion, several studies reveal that the more racist attitudes a person has, the more likely he or she is to identify as a white Christian (whether Catholic, mainstream Protestant or from the myriad of evangelical churches), which contrasts with the attitudes of white people with no religious affiliation.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The growing concern about the Middle East, also marks the current global situation, a region where a series of circumstances have been aggravating an already very complex and volatile historical situation. Therefore, The Economist<\/em><\/a> <\/em> highlights Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan’s intention to become the voice of Muslims in the world, based on the conviction that the old world order is collapsing and seeking to secure a relevant role in the new one. This, within a regional context that Steven A. Cook describes in Foreign Policy<\/em><\/a> <\/em> as practically as a point of no-return. Following the failure of the so-called Arab springs of 2011, which brought hope of democratisation and greater economic and political progress, the whole region – from Lebanon to Yemen, Syria to Egypt- has become a dystopia marked by violence, the resurgence of authoritarianism, economic dislocation and inequality and local conflicts, now aggravated by a global pandemic and a terrible and deep global recession. As a paradigm of the intricate situation of the region, Anchal Vohra<\/a> points out in Foreign Policy<\/em> the dramatic situation of Lebanon where, since the devastating explosion in the port of Beirut this summer (fairly indicative of the country’s state of decline), protest movements against the economic and political stagnation have become increasingly confessional. This cannot lead to anything other than the reinforcement of the perpetual status quo that the country has been experiencing for decades and has led to a failed economy and an inefficient political system.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

With regard to Europe, the magazine Politico<\/em><\/a> starts the new course by analysing the main issues that will mark the European agenda in the coming months. 1. Reforming migration; 2. Saving digital trade; 3. Making investment moral; 4. Managing the fallout from Brexit; 5. Taking on the chemicals industry; 6. Taming tech giants; 7. Reforming farm funds; 8. Building trade defences; 9. Securing coronavirus vaccines; 10. Matching climate promises; and finally paying for it all, as the current EU budgetary framework ends on December 31, and despite the agreement reached in July, funding for the next seven-year cycle is not yet guaranteed. A European Union that in the coming years will have to take fundamental decisions on its role in the world. As Federico Steinberg stresses from the pages of El Pa\u00eds<\/em><\/a> <\/em> where he warns that before it is too late the EU must incorporate the concept of power into a renewed foreign policy in an international order that will be increasingly uncooperative. The aim would be to achieve strategic autonomy by explicitly linking the economy, trade, finance and technology with geopolitics as the other powers do, but also to learn how to address threats relating to cybersecurity and disinformation. The geostrategic role of the Union must therefore aim to prevent international relations from entering into a neo-imperial logic in which countries are forced to decide whether to side with (and be influenced by) the USA or China. Florian Louis shares the same analysis in Le Grand Continent<\/em><\/a>, where he stresses the need for Europe to adopt a power policy that would enable it to maintain its position in the world and defend its interests in an increasingly competitive context. Finally, in The Guardian<\/em><\/a>, Stephen Buranyi warns of the increase in demonstrations against the measures adopted by governments to face the Covid-19, particularly in countries such as Germany. The danger lies in the fact that these protests are not only a symptom of citizens’ frustration, but represent a deliberate break with our shared reality.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

With regard to the Spanish political situation in times of pandemic, David Jim\u00e9nez published a devastating article in The New York Times<\/em><\/a>. He tries to explain why Spain has become a leading country in terms of contagion and outbreaks after the easing of the lockdown. He argues that the decision to favour the opening of bars, restaurants, discotheques and beaches in a failed attempt to save the tourist season has been to the detriment of education for millions of students who must now return to the classroom in the midst of new outbreaks. The lack of foresight that has plunged the reopening of schools into confusion is part of a management burdened by opacity, lack of reliable data, inconsistency and slow reaction on the part of central and regional governments. Within a context of a crisis of democratic, political and institutional legitimacy symbolised by the flight of King Emeritus Juan Carlos I, aggravated by the serious health and economic crisis unleashed by the Covid-19, Josep Ramoneda warns of the danger represented by the strategy of the authoritarian right: to let the situation rot so that, when mass unemployment and the degradation of coexistence in the neighbourhoods and families arrive, they can set themselves up as defenders of the losers with the demagogy of right-wing populism and the banner of authoritarian patriotism. Beyond the health emergency, also in El Pa\u00eds<\/em><\/a>, Juan Lu\u00eds Cebri\u00e1n highlights two immediate issues that deserve his attention: the economic recovery and the institutional strengthening needed to enable a country project for Spain. He warns that, although little has been said and discussed over the summer, the funds that will come from the EU’s recovery plan are vital from an economic point of view. Nevertheless, we will have to be very scrupulous because both the subsidies and the credits, their use, their adequacy to the intended purposes, and their implementation schedule, will be closely monitored and controlled by the European Union. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

As for Catalonia, Jordi Amat analyses in La Vanguardia<\/em><\/a> <\/em> what the cycle of celebrations of the Diada<\/em> [Catalonia\u2019s National Day] has meant in terms of independence and points out that from 2012 onwards there has been much discussion as to whether the Proc\u00e9s<\/em> had been a movement driven by grassroots activism or a project led by the elites. Amat considers that the confluence between these two vectors, which became less pronounced after the event of October 1 2017, was a political decision, and that from that moment onwards the Proc\u00e9s no longer had a single leadership and this situation, which has never been completely resolved, meant that constant mobilisation became the real vector of continuity. As the yet undefined date of the Catalan elections approaches, there is growing interest in knowing how Puigdemont’s party will articulate what is called “intelligent confrontation”. Based on Jordi Mu\u00f1oz’s book Principi de realitat<\/em> (L’Aven\u00e7, 2020), Albert Branchadell states in El Pa\u00eds<\/em><\/a> <\/em> that the confrontation witht he State revealed a fundamental strategic error: the lack of awareness of the legitimacy deficit that the pro-independence movement had been dragging on since it lost the plebiscitary elections of 27 September 2015. To remedy this, he considers that it is necessary to meet more demanding criteria to base the independence cause on qualified or reinforced majorities that can provide all the legitimacy and strength needed.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

In La maleta de Port Bou<\/em><\/a>,\nJosep Ramoneda reflects on the consequences of the pandemic on human beings and\nsociety. Suddenly, the world stopped” and by simple decrees, most states,\neven in the most liberal regimes, locked us up at home and applied a brutal\nreduction of basic freedoms. Yet, there has been hardly any debate. In the face\nof this, Ramoneda calls for a vindication of the complexity of the human\ncondition, in a context of crisis that culminates years of simplification, of\nreduction of the human subject to a simple Homo economicus<\/em>. Also\nconcerned about the human condition is the Chinese artist and dissident Ai\nWeiwei who, in an interview with the Portuguese newspaper P\u00fablico<\/em><\/a>, compares China’s\npolitical and economic strategy in the world with the Covid-19, as he considers\nthat it acts like a virus in the living cells of our body. He warns that, if\nthe advance is almost invisible and the symptoms are still weak, we are already\ndeeply infected. He also stresses that China is a secret, very powerful state\nwith a very clear vision of how it wants to develop its power.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

From the economic\nperspective, reflections and debates on the devastating consequences of the\nCovid-19 pandemic continue. In Foreign Affairs<\/em><\/a>, Carmen and\nVincent Reinhart even speak of pandemic depression since the shared nature of\nthis shock – the new coronavirus does not respect national borders – has caused\na recession never seen since the Great Depression, whose recovery will not be\nas strong or as fast as could have been predicted. This is because the fiscal\nand monetary policies used to combat the contraction of the economy will\nultimately mitigate, rather than eliminate, the economic losses, thus opening\nup a long period before the world economy can recover to the positions of early\n2020. In the same journal, Branko Milanovi\u0107<\/a> states that the\nnotable slowdown in global growth resulting from the new coronavirus crisis\nwill not be uniform. Indeed, China’s economic growth – although currently far\nlower than in any other year since the 1980s – will continue to outstrip that\nof the West and this will speed up the closing of the income gap between Asia\nand the Western world. If China’s growth continues to outpace that of Western\ncountries by two or three percentage points a year, over the next decade many\nmiddle-class Chinese will be richer than their middle-class counterparts in the\nWest, meaning that for the first time middle-class Westerners will no longer be\npart of the world incomes elite. Especially relevant in this unique context of\nwidespread crisis is the report The Age of Disorder – the new era for\neconomics, politics and our way of life<\/em> by the research department of Deutsche Bank<\/a>, which points out that 2020\nmay mean the end of what has been the second wave of globalisation and the\nsimultaneous reversal of many current trends. The research team responsible for\nthis report stresses that we are about to enter a new phase of disorder and\nuncertainty where protectionism, cold wars, rising debt, price volatility, the\nomnipresence of technology, and class and inter-generational struggle will be\nsome of the features that will shape this new era. Thus, the deterioration of\nUS-China relations and the reversal of unbridled globalisation would be the\nlogical consequence of China being at the heart of the second era of\nglobalisation now ending. A new era that will also be decisive for Europe as it\nwill have to choose between fragmentation and real union in an environment\nmarked by increased indebtedness where disorder and chaos in the financial\nmarkets will be commonplace. These disruptive factors will lead to growing\ninequality leading to a widening of the intergenerational gap as those who have\nentered the labour market during the last decade have already experienced the\ntwo biggest crises since the Great Depression. The climate debate will also\nfocus attention on this new era, between those who advocate policies (taxes,\ninvestments…) to protect the environment (often the youngest), and those who\nprioritise greater economic growth. Finally, the report also stresses that we\nare fully in a technological revolution whose expectations are uncertain but\nwhich may also lead to profound changes in the status quo.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

A few weeks ago, UN Secretary General Ant\u00f3nio Guterres<\/a> called for cooperation in the fight against the climate emergency and warned of the danger of major countries and investors clinging to the use of fossil fuels and not moving quickly enough towards renewable energies, and how the recovery of countries after the pandemic could mean greater global disunity. It also warns that we are running out of time, so we have to act very quickly because phenomena are accelerating and feeding back so that the situation may soon be even more dramatic. He concludes his appeal by stressing that this is why a series of transformational measures are needed in relation to energy, transport, agriculture, industry, which directly affect our own lifestyle. In the same vein, Antonio Cerillo reviews in La Vanguardia<\/em><\/a> <\/em> a report by the European Environment Agency (EEA) which warns of how the deterioration of the environment is damaging human health. Indeed, the destruction of forest habitats in tropical areas means that many pathogens previously confined to inaccessible places are now being transmitted to the human species. From this perspective, Covid-19 would be the most recent example.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Finally, the Director General of the World Health Organisation (WHO), Tedros Adhanom<\/a>, also issued another relevant warning call in The Economist<\/em>. He warns that to stop the pandemic quickly and effectively, the world needs to resist what he calls “vaccine nationalism”. Such a strategy will not end the crisis, but perpetuate it, as it raises the same problems that occurred with the March lockdowns, when different authorities sought personal protection equipment on their own and in a frantic race. Adhanom warns that if the same system continues, once new vaccines and treatments become available, demand will greatly exceed supply, worsening the possible way out of the health crisis. Ultimately, global coordination is essential, as this alone will ensure that vaccines reach those who need them most. A cooperative approach is morally right and a smart way forward, more efficient, with less loss of life and a guarantee of a faster return to normal life.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

A normal life that has been disrupted by the sudden outbreak of the pandemic that, as The Economist<\/em><\/a> <\/em> points out, has led to the forced digitisation that governments have had to undertake in order to cope with the Covid-19. In many countries, it has been impossible to obtain a court hearing, a passport or to get married due to the closing of offices, as all these procedures require face-to-face interactions. In this context, governments that have long invested in digitising their systems (a case in point is Estonia) have experienced fewer disruptions to their operations. In addition, even where online services already existed, their shortcomings have become apparent, as for example in the case of digital unemployment management systems, which have collapsed in many countries. It has therefore become clear that there is an urgent need to digitise as much as possible the administrative procedures carried out on-line. Finally, we highlight Anthony Vinci’s article in Foreign Affairs<\/em><\/a> <\/em> where he addresses the issue of how Artificial Intelligence and autonomous systems will transform intelligence agencies. Although intelligence work will still consist of stealing and protecting secrets, the way in which they are collected, analysed and disseminated will be fundamentally different. Futurist military analysts studying see the rise of AI and autonomous weapons systems as a revolution in military affairs. Through this revolution, machines will become more than just tools for gathering and analysing information. They will become consumers of intelligence, decision makers and even targets of other machine-related intelligence operations. The ultimate concern of these machines will continue to be the political, social, economic and military relationships of human beings, but machine-driven intelligence will operate at a speed, scale and complexity that human-driven intelligence can no longer sustain. For further information on this topic, see the AI section<\/a> of IDEES. <\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

We resume the publication of the Diari de les idees after the holiday period and we do so with a more complicated situation than could have been expected at the beginning of the summer with respect to the Covid-19 pandemic and after more than six months since the state of alarm was declared. The truce that the summer break should have meant has not been the case and the constant increase in contagion and the risks of new outbreaks pose a complicated return to activity. You can check these websites to follow the latest data on the evolution of the\u2026<\/p>\n","protected":false},"featured_media":77128,"template":"","category_newspaper":[139],"segment":[],"subject":[],"class_list":["post-20372","newspaper","type-newspaper","status-publish","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category_newspaper-139"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"\nDiari de les idees 29 – IDEES<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/revistaidees.cat\/en\/analisis\/diari-de-les-idees\/diari-de-les-idees-29\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Diari de les idees 29 – IDEES\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"We resume the publication of the Diari de les idees after the holiday period and we do so with a more complicated situation than could have been expected at the beginning of the summer with respect to the Covid-19 pandemic and after more than six months since the state of alarm was declared. 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