{"id":23847,"date":"2020-10-16T12:02:26","date_gmt":"2020-10-16T12:02:26","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/revistaidees.cat\/analisis\/diari-de-les-idees\/diari-de-les-idees-31\/"},"modified":"2020-10-20T09:41:13","modified_gmt":"2020-10-20T09:41:13","slug":"diari-de-les-idees-31","status":"publish","type":"newspaper","link":"https:\/\/revistaidees.cat\/en\/analisis\/diari-de-les-idees\/diari-de-les-idees-31\/","title":{"rendered":"Diari de les idees 31"},"content":{"rendered":"\n

Night curfews in Paris and eight\nFrench cities, new restrictions in Portugal and Italy, partial lockdown in\nLiverpool and stricter containment measures in Brussels, Amsterdam and Berlin.\nState of alert in Madrid and a new package of measures in Catalonia where there\nis particular concern about the very high risk of outbreak in Barcelona, its\nmetropolitan area and central Catalonia. At the time of publication of this new\nedition of the Diari de les idees<\/em>, the situation is very worrying as the\nsecond wave of COVID-19 is already here and threatens expectations of economic\nrecovery.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

As Josep Corbella points out in La Vanguardia<\/em><\/a> the worsening of the epidemic in Catalonia is\nbeginning to overwhelm the capacity of primary care, while the percentage of\npositive PCR has increased to 9.3%, showing that there are more and more cases\nthat cannot be detected. The percentage of positive PCR must be below 5% to\nachieve good control of the epidemic. The latest figures from the EPG (which\nindicates the risk of reoccurrence with a value above 100 meaning that the risk\nis high) are also worrying. They reach 378 in Catalonia and 449 in Barcelona\nwhile the speed of virus reproduction is constantly increasing and is already\nat 1.4 in Catalonia and 1.54 in Barcelona, which means that each new case\ninfects more than one person. In the rest of Catalonia, the situation is\nrapidly deteriorating in the sanitary regions where the cities of Lleida,\nTarragona and Girona are located. All of them have virus reproduction numbers\nabove 1.40 and rising rapidly, indicating that the epidemic is accelerating. In\nview of this situation, the government of Catalonia has decided to apply a\nseries of measures for 15 days, which will probably be extended in time, in\norder to reduce the mobility of citizens and avoiding sporadic social contacts.\nMeasures aimed at trying to avoid a total lockdown of the population which,\ngiven the experience of last spring, would have disastrous consequences at all\nlevels. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

In the midst of this very worrying\ncontext, Spain, its critical health, political, institutional and economic\nsituation has occupied a very important place in the European and international\npress in recent weeks. The Economist<\/em><\/a> points out that after decreeing the harshest lockdown in\nall of Europe, Spain precipitated its easing, while several regions, especially\nMadrid, have failed to reinforce primary care and contact tracking. The failure\nto control the pandemic has also led to seriously compromising the economic\nrecovery due to the outbreaks and now the second wave. The economy is expected\nto contract by up to 13%, the worst figure in Europe. This is even more\nworrying given that the Spanish economy is particularly vulnerable owing to the\nslowdown in tourism and the hotel and catering industry, which account for 26\npercent of GDP, five points more than the European average. In an article\npublished in the newspaper ABC<\/em> Rosal\u00eda S\u00e1nchez<\/a> echoes an increasingly widespread perception in the international\neconomic and financial sectors regarding Spain’s economic recovery after the\npandemic, doubts generated in large part by the political situation and the\ncharacteristics of the Spanish economy. There is therefore mistrust as to\nwhether the country is prepared to manage the considerable inflow of European\nfunds, as the situation is too unstable politically. It may be necessary for\nthe World Bank or the IMF to identify significant projects that deserve\nfunding. The political and institutional situation is also associated with the\nfailure to manage the pandemic, in a diagnosis that suggests that political\ndivisions are preventing a correct management of the crisis. This crisis is\naffecting the fourth largest economy in the euro area and is taking on such\ndimensions that the country will scarcely be able to recover with its own\nmeans. Furthermore, the perception of Spain in the markets has changed for the\nworse since, although the pandemic is universal and the upturn is seen\nthroughout Europe, this is not the case in Spain. A situation which is\ncomplicated by the fact that the Spanish stock market abounds in a type of\ncompany that is less well adapted to the new environment, such as banks and\nconstruction companies. The influential Financial Times<\/em><\/a> describes the\nsituation as a burden for the recovery of the European economy, showing that\nthis means that the chances of the Eurozone suffering another recession during\nthe last months of the year are increasing. The weakening of confidence\nindicators suggests that the idea of a strong post-virus recovery sustained at\nthe end of the year is now seriously questioned in the Spanish case as the\nservice sector, one of the mainstays of the Spanish economy, is faltering due\nto its excessive dependence on tourism. Finally, in its printed edition,  Frankfurter Allgemeine Zeitung<\/em><\/a> publishes a\ndevastating editorial in which it states that the second wave of the\ncoronavirus highlights the failure of the Spanish state. There is no consensus\namong the parties. Little has been learned from the first wave; the leaders are\nnot up to the crisis; the political parties are clashing irreconcilably; the\nright wing is charging against S\u00e1nchez’s left-wing coalition as if the election\ncampaign were not yet over. Although the FAZ points out that Spain is not a\n“failed state”, it argues that it is impossible to overlook the\nfailure of the state and that, despite the terrifying death toll and the\neconomic emergency, the politicians are unable to reach a consensus. In short,\nit denounces the lack of leaders with state vision capable of uniting a country\nwhere for the PP opposition the overthrow of the Sanchez government matters\nmore than the fight against the COVID-19. The virus is attacking a state that\nhas been weakened by unresolved conflicts. The article dwells on the series of\nproblems affecting the state structures: instability and confrontation shape\nthe political culture and prevent the necessary reforms; the conflict between\nBarcelona and Madrid threatens to escalate again owing to the anticipated\nregional elections and a political solution is still a long way off. Finally,\nthe accusations of corruption against Juan Carlos have also plunged the\nmonarchy into a crisis and the consensus that emerged during the transition\nfrom Franco’s dictatorship to democracy is collapsing. In short, in the face of\na crisis of this magnitude Josep Ramoneda points out in El Pa\u00eds<\/em><\/a> the absolute\nneed to take vigorous action, which involves approving recovery budgets that\nare not exclusive. Putting an end to fiscal dumping between autonomous\ncommunities; recovering threatened rights; returning the Catalan question to\npolitics which inevitably involves some form of pardon or amnesty; returning to\nthe balance of power after the judiciary has been charged with responsibilities\nthat do not correspond to it. In short, a fully-fledged revival that would\nrequire a wide-ranging pact to defuse a seriously compromised future. Will the\ndifferent Spanish political actors be able to carry this out? Everything points\nto the fact that it will not be possible in the medium term…<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Europe is also going through a\nturbulent time in an autumn marked by the increasingly real threat of a second\nwave of coronavirus spreading across the continent and where the implementation\nof the ambitious economic recovery programme is being postponed by amendments\nproposed by different states regarding the modalities of implementation and\ncontrol of the planned aid and loans. A plan which, as Ioana Petrescu points\nout in Politico<\/em><\/a> will only be effective if Brussels manages to prevent\nthe money from going into the wrong hands. Too often, EU funds are wasted on\npointless projects or simply disappear. In a report published at the beginning\nof October, the EU anti-fraud office estimated that last year’s fraudulent use\nof EU funds amounted to 485 million. The creation of the European Public\nProsecutor’s Office and the use of European Deputy Prosecutors to work within\nmember countries are necessary measures to curb corruption. However, they are\nhardly enough. Quality audits of projects financed with EU money would\ntherefore be necessary, which, instead of focusing exclusively on bureaucratic\ndetails, would take into account the quality of the output and whether the\nproject objective has been achieved. Another area where the EU has outstanding\nduties is in its foreign policy as evidenced by the failure to agree on\nsanctions against Belarus. Also in Politico<\/em>, Nathalie Tocci<\/a> denounces that European foreign policy remains largely paralysed: the\nMember States do not agree on how to deal with Vladimir Putin’s Russia, Xi\nJinping’s China and Donald Trump’s America. Moreover, even if Europe shares a\ncommon vision and sometimes takes common action, this is still a long way from\na coherent foreign policy. The problem lies in the decision-making process in\nthat, unlike other areas, decisions on foreign and security policy issues must\nbe taken unanimously. This means that all too often the members of the EU,\njealous of their sovereignty, prioritise specific national interests over a\njoint European strategy. There is therefore an urgent need to abandon the\nprinciple of unanimity, if not on all foreign policy issues, at least \u2013as the\nCommission President, Ursula von der Leyen<\/a> and Josep Borrell have\nproposed\u2013 when it comes to sanctions and the protection of human rights.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The US presidential elections, the redefinition of global scenarios and China’s role in a post-pandemic world are the focus of international political attention. The former dean of the Kennedy School of Government at Harvard University, Joseph S. Nye, reflects in El Pa\u00eds<\/em><\/a> on the possible future global scenarios for the aftermath of the COVID-19 pandemic: the end of the globalised liberal order; a 1930s-style authoritarian resurgence; China’s predominance in international affairs; the triumph of a green international agenda; or, finally, a return to business as usual. All these scenarios ara marked on the one hand by the loss of US global influence, which has accelerated under the presidency of Donald Trump, and by China’s growing role. In Foreign Affairs<\/em><\/a>, James Goldgeier and Bruce W. Jentleson question the role of the United States as one of the world’s great democracies given the systemic racism suffered by its society and institutions, while social and economic inequalities continue to grow, as revealed by the COVID-19 crisis. A situation that could begin to change if there is a change of incumbent in the White House after the elections of 3 November, elections that Michael Hirsh describes in Foreign Policy<\/em><\/a> as the most important ever. After a first term in which Trump has openly defied Congress and the courts, twisted foreign policy to serve his political interests, disregarded electoral rules and turned a frightened Republican Party into an instrument for his own interests, his stay in power could come to question the stability of American institutions and what remains of the system of checks and balances established by the Founding Fathers. A concern shared by David Brooks who in a very harsh article published in\u00a0The New York Times<\/em>\u00a0<\/a> describes the American president as a character whose immorality knows no bounds and threatens the stability of citizenry life.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

As for the growing influence of China, Michael Schuman\nargues in The Atlantic<\/em><\/a> that\nwe can imagine how this country would exercise its power if it became a hegemonic\npower by analysing the historical patterns of past eras in which China was also\na major world power. In addition, he warns that China does not believe in\nrelations between equals but in the superiority of its civilisation and\neconomic power. A danger, therefore, to global geopolitical stability that Aaron\nFriedberg also enlights in Foreign Policy<\/em><\/a> stressing that despite its excesses and omissions, the Trump\nadministration has done what was necessary to put pressure on Beijing. If he is\npresident after the elections, Biden should maintain this pressure while\ndiscarding the negative aspects that have deteriorated Donald Trump’s\npresidency and damaged the US’s ability to address its biggest strategic\nchallenge for the future. An increase in China’s global power that must be put\nin balance as Amy MacKinnon<\/a>\nsuggests\nin the same journal. A study conducted by the Pew Research Institute indicates\nthat opinion of China has undergone a fairly negative change over the past year\nowing to its handling of the coronavirus epidemic, particularly in the world’s\nrichest countries. The same report also stresses that, contrary to what we\nmight think, there is little correlation between China’s investment in a\ncountry and its citizens’ favourable opinion of China, which means that Beijing\nis having to rethink how to boost its global image, as its huge economy,\ntrading power and massive investments abroad have not translated into political\ndividends. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

The impact and consequences of the COVID-19 pandemic continue to be the focus of economic attention. The Economist<\/em><\/a> analyses the uneven impact of the pandemic on economies. Indeed, if the initial shock caused by COVID-19 was uniform, now as some recovery is taking place, huge gaps are opening up between countries, which could add even more instability to the global economic order. By way of example: at the end of next year, according to OECD forecasts, the US economy will be the same size as in 2019, but China’s will have grown by 10 per cent, while Europe will still be below its pre-pandemic production level and could remain so for a few years. In short, the pandemic could lead to a situation of less globalised, more digitalised and more unequal economies. Growing inequality, on the other hand, also relates to the distribution of wealth. \u200bL\u00e9ah Boukobza reveals in Slate<\/em><\/a> <\/em> that although extreme poverty had decreased over the past decades, the trend is now being reversed due to the COVID-19 crisis. Millions of people could soon find themselves below the extreme poverty line set by the World Bank at less than $1.90 a day (about 1.60 euros). According to World Bank predictions, the number of people living below the extreme poverty line will increase dramatically: between 70 and 100 million more could soon find themselves in this situation. A scenario that should persist for a few years due to the slowdown in economic growth after the pandemic. In addition, the World Bank estimates that between 40 and 150 million more people will fall below the poverty line and will therefore have to live on less than $3.20 a day (about ?2.70). The current health crisis is therefore a major setback in the fight against global poverty that will mark the next few years and even the next few decades. This situation could be further aggravated by the consequences of climate change, as reported by \u200bOl\u00faf\u00e9mi O. T\u00e1iw\u00f2 and Beba Cibralic in Foreign Policy<\/em><\/a>. Indeed, the climate crisis will displace more than 140 million people over the next 30 years. To adapt, the international community will need a different policy approach from the current one. In this context, there is a need for recognition of rights to displacement and resettlement, and a liberalisation of rich countries’ border policies. The alternative of maintaining the current status quo means hunger, regional armed conflicts and widespread displacement that would mean that the poorest people would suffer the worst consequences of a climate crisis for which they are least responsible. A climate crisis that as warns Mariana Mazzucato in Social Europe<\/em><\/a> is reaching a critical point, so much so that in the near future, the world may have to resort to lockdowns again, this time to deal with a climate emergency. To avoid this scenario, there is an urgent need to review our economic structures because the window of opportunity to launch a climate revolution and achieve an inclusive recovery of the COVID-19 will quickly close. In this context, Elizabeth Kolbert describes in The New Yorker<\/em><\/a> three possible scenarios for the future of the climate emergency: the first, in which the necessary measures to reduce gas emissions would be implemented. A second scenario where emissions would continue to grow as global inequality would, in which developed countries would protect themselves from the consequences of climate change, while excluding developing countries. Finally, a scenario where the greenhouse effect would lead to a global conflict between all nations. All in all, each of these scenarios would involve a drastic change in the world as well as in knowledge, for better or for worse. Finally, now that the UN General Assembly has met a few days ago to discuss the global ecological crisis, Jason Hickel launches in Foreign Policy<\/em><\/a> a warning regarding the Sustainable Development Goals (SDG), as the index used to calculate the results does not make it clear where each country stands. Thus, for example, countries such as Sweden, Denmark, Finland, France and Germany, along with most other rich Western nations, are at the top of the ranking, while being the most unsustainable countries in the world. Indeed, data published by the University of Leeds show that all the countries that rank highest in the SDG index significantly exceed the limits set not only in terms of resource use and emissions, but also in terms of land use and chemical flows such as nitrogen and phosphorus. A wake-up call to keep in mind. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

Finally,\nin the field of new technologies, the former chess world champion and president\nof the Human Rights Foundation, Garry Kasparov argues in The Economist<\/em><\/a> the need to improve democracy through new\ntechnologies as these are far ahead, driven by scientists and engineers, giant\ncompanies and public investment. At a time when democratic institutions around\nthe world are suffering from serious erosion, the mechanisms of politics seem\nunable to adapt to the changes of modern life. The solution is therefore to\nembrace the spirit of technological progress and to introduce innovation into\ndemocratic systems and political processes, so that they can keep up with the\ndemands of the times. A study<\/a> published\nin the same newspaper analyses the link between broadband Internet access and\nthe increase in citizens’ distrust of government. The conclusion is that, in\ngeneral, people’s confidence in their leaders has been declining because of the\nspread of 3G. However, the intensity of this effect varies. It is lower in\ncountries that allow a free press than in those where traditional media are\ncensored, and higher in countries with unlimited web browsing than in those\nthat censor the Internet. A picture that can still vary a lot, in one way or\nanother, as the introduction of 5G can play an important role as Arun Bansal points\nout in Politico<\/em><\/a> insofar as the COVID-19 pandemic has reinforced the importance of connectivity\nas a critical infrastructure.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Night curfews in Paris and eight French cities, new restrictions in Portugal and Italy, partial lockdown in Liverpool and stricter containment measures in Brussels, Amsterdam and Berlin. State of alert in Madrid and a new package of measures in Catalonia where there is particular concern about the very high risk of outbreak in Barcelona, its metropolitan area and central Catalonia. At the time of publication of this new edition of the Diari de les idees, the situation is very worrying as the second wave of COVID-19 is already here and threatens expectations of economic recovery. As Josep Corbella points out\u2026<\/p>\n","protected":false},"featured_media":77128,"template":"","category_newspaper":[139],"segment":[],"subject":[],"class_list":["post-23847","newspaper","type-newspaper","status-publish","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category_newspaper-139"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"\nDiari de les idees 31 – IDEES<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/revistaidees.cat\/en\/analisis\/diari-de-les-idees\/diari-de-les-idees-31\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Diari de les idees 31 – IDEES\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"Night curfews in Paris and eight French cities, new restrictions in Portugal and Italy, partial lockdown in Liverpool and stricter containment measures in Brussels, Amsterdam and Berlin. State of alert in Madrid and a new package of measures in Catalonia where there is particular concern about the very high risk of outbreak in Barcelona, its metropolitan area and central Catalonia. At the time of publication of this new edition of the Diari de les idees, the situation is very worrying as the second wave of COVID-19 is already here and threatens expectations of economic recovery. 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State of alert in Madrid and a new package of measures in Catalonia where there is particular concern about the very high risk of outbreak in Barcelona, its metropolitan area and central Catalonia. At the time of publication of this new edition of the Diari de les idees, the situation is very worrying as the second wave of COVID-19 is already here and threatens expectations of economic recovery. 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