{"id":37121,"date":"2021-03-04T19:36:58","date_gmt":"2021-03-04T19:36:58","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/revistaidees.cat\/analisis\/diari-de-les-idees\/diari-de-les-idees-38\/"},"modified":"2021-03-17T12:33:08","modified_gmt":"2021-03-17T12:33:08","slug":"diari-de-les-idees-38","status":"publish","type":"newspaper","link":"https:\/\/revistaidees.cat\/en\/analisis\/diari-de-les-idees\/diari-de-les-idees-38\/","title":{"rendered":"Diari de les idees 38"},"content":{"rendered":"\n

We publish the new editorial of the Diari de les idees <\/em>in the middle of the negotiation process for the formation of the new Catalan government after the February 14 elections. This election has meant a new victory for the pro-independence parties, which have extended their majority in the Catalan Parliament and surpassed the symbolic threshold of half of the votes, reaching 51.2%.  Despite the relative victory of the PSC by just over 49,000 votes and 33 seats, ERC also has 33 seats, leading the pro-independence forces and surpassing Junts per Catalunya, which has obtained 32 MPs and is in third place. The ERC candidate, Pere Aragon\u00e9s, is therefore in a position to be sworn in as the new president of the Catalan Government, something that has not happened since the Second Republic, more than 80 years ago. The worrying emergence of the extreme right-wing VOX, which has largely surpassed the Partido Popular in a situation of clear irrelevance, and the collapse of Ciutadans, which has gone from being the leading political party to the seventh position with 6 deputies, are also some of the most outstanding features of these elections.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

With these results, socialist Salvador Illa does not seem likely to be able to bring together the necessary sum to reach a majority, and the feasible parliamentary arithmetic draws two possible scenarios for the formation of a government. Both scenarios involve the investiture of Pere Aragon\u00e9s, placing the ERC at the centre of Catalan politics, in a decisive position for the next four years and with the possibility of consolidating a new hegemony. In the first scenario, the pro-independence movement gains 74 seats (ERC+Junts+CUP), which would allow for a renewal of the coalition government with the support or abstention of the CUP. The second feasible scenario would involve an agreement between ERC and the Comuns to build a left wing and pro-sovereignty coalition to form a minority government. This scenario would require at least the favourable vote of Junts or the PSC. In the hypothetical case that the PSC were to support this agreement, it would mean returning the votes that ERC gave in the investiture of Pedro S\u00e1nchez. This second option, for now more distant, would require the PSOE to leave its immobility behind and move out of its comfort zone, in order to make firm commitments to the independence movement that would allow it to get out of the current impasse. A first essential gesture would be to approve the pardons and do whatever is necessary to stop the repressive path. Likewise, it could be a compelling reason to commit to reaching urgent agreements on the priority issues raised at the Negotiation Table. The key question for the viability of this second scenario would be to wonder whether there are incentives for both ERC and PSOE to give each other mutual support in Barcelona and Madrid\u2026<\/p>\n\n\n\n

overtaking of Junts per Catalunya, the Republicans have effectively become the centre of politics and have the capacity to lead a government formed with one or the other. This shift, which matured during the last legislature, has turned ERC into the pro-independence force of reference in Madrid. The definitive turning point was the agreement that facilitated the investiture of Pedro S\u00e1nchez and the subsequent constitution of a negotiation table that, admittedly, has yet to bear any fruit. The consolidation of the Junqueras-driven shift required, however, winning over Junts. Having confirmed the sorpasso<\/em>, the most relevant fact of these elections, voters have also expressed that Catalonia cannot turn the page, as Salvador Illa claimed, without first trying to resolve the demands of the pro-independence movement, today more in the majority than ever in the Parliament. This is not a minor element when it comes to sitting down at the negotiating table with the PSOE government, and it is a very clear message at the international level.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

As Javier Alberdi and Luis Marb\u00e1n say in\u00a0Contexto<\/em><\/a>, ERC has the possibility of seeking different alliances in accordance with the two government alternatives mentioned above. This potential strengthens its negotiating role while at the same time making it possible to reach agreements with any of its possible partners. However, although there are two options, the most likely scenario is the renewal of a pro-independence government. This time, with an exchange of roles, where ERC would occupy the presidency of the Generalitat and where the CUP could once again hold the key, at the same time as guaranteeing the stability of the new government. If we look at the numbers, a pro-independence government is the most viable coalition, but nothing indicates yet that it could be more stable. Ultimately, however, ERC’s leadership of the pro-independence bloc changes the equation and makes the Communs a decisive political actor in exploring what the Republicans call the broad road.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Likewise, Josep Ramoneda argues in Ara<\/em><\/a>\u00a0that once the elections are over, the debate on possible governance has come to the fore. He points out that the pro-independence movement still wins more votes than anyone else, albeit with a significant drop in the vote due to a high abstention rate. Moreover, he considers that it makes no sense for Madrid to continue to deny the political reality of Catalonia, nor is it useful to blame the Spanish government for everything. In times marked by the health emergency, the looming economic crisis and social disorientation, people want solutions and not excuses, and that means having sufficient capacity for dialogue with the powers of the State, which can only be achieved through negotiations and agreements and a well-defined and firm leadership. For this to be possible, it is first necessary for both parties to see the need. In addition, while in Catalonia this is already widely accepted, in Spain, on the other hand, many powerful people are reluctant to accept it. To break this impasse, mutual recognition is needed, which involves the release of prisoners, by either pardon or amnesty. At the same time, it is also necessary to accept that “the other” may also have his or her reasons: it is not a question of subduing or winning, but of reaching an agreement. In short, good politics means having the courage to seize the opportunity. A window of opportunity is now opening up.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

In the same vein, another reading of the election results is that the two parties that have remained in the lead are committed to seeking solutions through dialogue, based on conflicting visions. The question is, therefore, whether they will be able to or know how to find ways to carry out an urgent political dialogue, as called for by the Nota del C\u00edrculo de Econom\u00eda<\/a>, “Rebuilding politics to restart the country”. For the Circle, the new government should concentrate all efforts on economic and social reconstruction and find ways to resolve the conflict during the next legislature. In short, good politics means having the courage to grasp the opportunity and seize it. A path that we Catalans are capable of embarking on because, as it is well said by Gabriel Magalh\u00e3es in La Vanguardia<\/em><\/a>, there is an epic of dialogue that involves the heroism of not wanting to crush the other. Serious problems such as funding and the situation of political prisoners can be solved by reaching an agreement. Dialogue is not a betrayal; it is not throwing in the towel. Pacts are the real victories because with them, a long purgatory, always on the verge of turning into hell, is avoided.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The government resulting from the ongoing political negotiations will require in any case a great deal of stability to address the urgent issues facing the country: the health crisis and its economic impact, the distribution of European recovery funds and the resolution of the political conflict with Spain.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Regarding the implications of the Catalan elections for Spanish politics and the questions that now arise, it is logical to ask whether the PSOE’s coalition government with Unidas Podemos, with ERC as its parliamentary partner, is now more or less stable. And whether the formation of the new Catalan government – pro-independence or left-wing sovereigntist – will influence the Spanish government’s strategy towards the conflict. After many years of immobility, if the PSOE wants to show any willingness to tackle a solution, now is the most opportune moment, in terms of the political situation. However, the Spanish government advisors, led by Iv\u00e1n Redondo, may once again take refuge in the pragmatism of doing nothing and focus their efforts on speculating irresponsibly on an electoral breakthrough to take advantage of the disorientation of the Spanish right. The latest internal conflicts within the Madrid government could be a trial balloon, as Guy Hedgecoe writes in Politico<\/em><\/a>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Certainly, 2021 will be a year in which the PSOE will reign in Spanish politics with a fragmented right wing and a decomposing opposition. As Arsenio Iglesias states in El Diario<\/em><\/a>\u00a0the disastrous results of the Spanish right in Catalonia pose a serious leadership problem for Pablo Casado, leader of a Partido Popular that needs an urgent news start (and not just a change of headquarters) in the wake of the corruption scandals of B\u00e1rcenas, G\u00fcrtel, Kitchen, P\u00fanica, etc. The day after the elections in Catalonia, the mayor of Madrid stated that there is no room for three brands in the centre-right. After VOX’s landslide in Catalonia (which won more seats than PP and Ciutadans combined), the far-right party sees itself with the strength to claim this leadership, while it distances the right’s possibility of becoming a government alternative as it moves away from the political ‘centre’. Proof of the right’s bewilderment is Aznarism celebrating this week the anniversary of its rise to power twenty-five years ago and claiming to unify the right once again, at the price of politically and sociologically integrating the ultras of VOX<\/a>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

In this respect, and in terms of Spanish politics, aside from the parliamentary elections, Josep Ramoneda also warns in El Pa\u00eds<\/em><\/a>\u00a0that political and social inertia has a great potential for erosion and that if institutions are not renewed, political systems deteriorate. One of the absurd legacies of the transition is the taboo on reform, as if, deep down, the two formerly hegemonic major parties were convinced that there are still ghosts of the past hidden in the structures of power and that it is better not to touch anything. This only leads to certain vices becoming chronic. The world and political reality have changed, but the inertia of Spanish politics and its leadership remains stuck in an outdated past.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Shifting our analysis to the global context, we would like to highlight the reflection on the role of the US in the struggle for hegemony that China is disputing. A struggle related to the dangers threatening liberal democracies, the prospects for economic recovery and the growing danger of climate change. With the turbulent times of Donald Trump’s term in office and the chaotic transition to the new Biden administration behind us, Foreign Affairs<\/em> believes it is time to assess the damage done and reflect on what to rebuild and how. The magazine devotes a special report<\/a>\u00a0 with the suggestive title of Can America Ever Lead Again?\u00a0<\/em>The report examines the situation inherited by the Biden administration, traces the gap between the grand geopolitical challenges facing the United States and the more modest concerns of its citizenry, and explores the deep internal divisions in American society.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

At the European level, two articles analyse what the new relations between Europe and the United States might be. Some twenty international figures of various political orientations reflect in\u00a0Le Grand Continent<\/em><\/a>\u00a0on the impact of Biden’s presidency on the future of European strategic autonomy, based on two questions: whether Biden’s election poses a risk to European strategic autonomy and whether the issue is more or less relevant to Europe’s future. Meanwhile, in Politico<\/em><\/a>\u00a0Matthew Kartnischnig argues that the new relationship has already begun with disagreements. For example, when President Biden called on Europe to halt the signing of a trade agreement with China for a few weeks, the EU ignored him. The world has changed since Joe Biden was Barack Obama’s vice-president, and this change has affected relations between the US and the EU. The EU has become much more dependent on China, to the extent that last year China overtook the US as the EU’s largest trading partner. For the US, however, Europe is not just a trading partner, but also an essential ally in confronting common adversaries such as Russia, China or Islamic terrorism. Biden’s challenge will therefore be to convince the EU that despite the economic opportunities to be gained from China, opening Europe’s doors too wide to Beijing may pose a risk to the EU itself.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

With regard to the consequences of Brexit, George Parker argues in\u00a0The Financial Times<\/em><\/a>\u00a0that the specific details of the trade agreement on the relationship between the two sides have yet to be finalised, while many of the problems that have arisen are the result of the British prime minister’s decision to prioritise sovereignty over market access. The effects have already begun to be felt, for example, in the export of crustaceans or in the chemical sector. The conflict has even reached the distribution of COVID-19 vaccines, when on 29 January, the European Commission imposed restrictions on vaccine exports to third countries, including the UK. Continuing with the UK, Simon Jenkins reports in The Guardian<\/em><\/a>\u00a0the growing support for the independence movement in Wales and argues that this is mainly due to the UK government’s mismanagement of the pandemic coupled with a growing sense of neglect by central government public policy. Jenkins stresses the importance of the phenomenon as it adds to the new momentum of Scottish nationalists and that the worst thing Boris Johnson could do is to continue to ignore the huge emotional and psychological burden of the call to create a new state that can better manage the daily lives of its citizens.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Finally, also in the European sphere, the newspaper Hamburger Abendblatt<\/em><\/a>\u00a0echoes the controversy generated earlier this month following a visit to Moscow by EU High Representative for Foreign Affairs and Security Policy Josep Borrell. To his demand to reduce police violence, authoritarian policies and to release opposition figure Alexei Navalny, threatening sanctions if his demands were not met, the Russian foreign minister countered with the situation of political prisoners and pro-independence exiles. The article argues that these developments could have important repercussions on several levels. On the one hand, and bearing in mind that more than 80 MEPs sent a letter to the Commission President warning of Borrell’s unsuitability for the job, this also poses a problem for von der Leyen’s already fragile position. Moreover, Europe is preparing to impose more sanctions on various figures in Putin’s entourage, which could further increase existing tensions.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The future of freedoms is in danger in Russia, where Vladimir Putin’s presidency is increasingly contested by a section of the population, as shown by the demonstrations in favour of the opposition leader Alexei Navalny.. In\u00a0The New Yorker<\/em><\/a>\u00a0Masha Gessen draws an interesting portrait of the oppositionist as an ambivalent figure appearing on the Russian political scene in the early 2000s. At that time alternatives to Putin were few, leading to not always welcome alliances, where activists who did not share ethno-nationalist ideas felt they had to form alliances with Russia’s emerging nationalist movements. In this context of explosive alliances, Navalny tried to convince nationalists to direct their potential for political contestation against Putin rather than against immigrants. Since then, Navalny has reformulated his politics from Russian ethno-nationalism towards a more moderate attempt to imagine a post-imperial Russian national identity. With a discourse that has progressively moved towards an economic and social left.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

A new stage in global governance is opening up in which China’s efforts and strategies to become a hegemonic power stand out. Branko\u00a0Milanovi\u0107\u00a0analizes in\u00a0Foreign Affairs<\/em><\/a>\u00a0one of the main shortcomings of the Peking regime that lies in the social inequalities that have undermined public and international confidence in the Chinese government. He believes that in addition to its past of fluctuating and uneven economic growth, the structural and geographical distribution of China’s wealth is a key factor explaining these inequalities. Milanovi\u0107 also points to corruption and the Communist Party as political factors in the country’s inequality, noting that the average amount siphoned off by prefecture-level party officials is almost three times higher than the amount siphoned off by national-level officials. We will have to hope that China’s top political authorities will be able to rein in this new hybrid political-economic elite, which has little interest in fighting corruption.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Open Democracy <\/em>warns of the regression of democracy in Latin America following the publication of the annual report<\/a> of The Economist<\/em> Intelligence Unit’s Democracy Index. If the results are alarming at the global level, with the lowest score since 2006, the situation is even worse in Latin America, considering that this is the fifth consecutive year of decline. If on the one hand the pandemic facilitated abuses of power with the indiscriminate application of measures to fight the coronavirus, on the other hand the region has continued to suffer from familiar problems: a weak democratic political culture; difficulties in maintaining independent institutions to protect the rule of law; and widespread corruption. Against this backdrop, the wave of protests that have been taking place in the region since 2019 can resurface vigorously later this year, because of citizens’ distrust of their rulers and institutions.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Finally, on a positive note, the election of the Nigerian Ngozi Okonjo-Iweala as head of the World Trade Organisation (WTO), as highlighted by the daily newspaper El Pa\u00eds<\/em><\/a>.\u00a0This is excellent news, both for her high qualifications for the job and for the value of alleviating the unacceptable imbalance in the representation of women and Africans in the leadership of multilateral organisations with wide global repercussions. Events of this kind are highly relevant to overcoming a Westernism that no longer responds to the geopolitical configuration of the 21st century. The rest of the world legitimately calls for change and the West needs to understand that it is not only morally right, but also in its interest to accept it. Adequate pluralism in the leadership of global governance is the prerequisite for its continued relevance.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

In her analysis of the impact of the pandemic on democracy and political systems, Naomi Klein argues in\u00a0La Vanguardia<\/em><\/a>\u00a0that the technology companies are the big winners of the pandemic and that this is a legacy of neoliberalism. The other big winners have been the pharmaceutical companies, which have made big business out of billions in public money to research and develop vaccines. Klein also points out that our normality was already a crisis and that it would therefore make no sense to return to a normality that was, in fact, already a crisis before the crisis. A systemic crisis of democracy, which Carlo Formenti also reflects in the magazine\u00a0MicroMega<\/em><\/a>, with an idea of 21st century socialism emancipated from the dogmatisms of the Marxist tradition and where he proposes the possibility of revitalising the project in Western countries as well as the social basis on which it could be founded. Formenti proposes to fight for the restitution of national sovereignty as an instrument to recover popular sovereignty and to re-establish the contractual force and political representation of the underprivileged classes; placing productive work of social utility rather than economic value at the centre of the action, reducing the weight of unproductive work and redefining the geopolitical position, giving priority attention to the BRICKS, the Mediterranean nations and the global south.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

In the economic field, G\u00e9rard Horny warns in the magazine Slate<\/em><\/a>\u00a0that it is now that governments will really have to face the economic consequences of COVID-19’s impact. Indeed, with the gradual dissolution of public support towards the State that often follows major crises, the consensus on early emergency measures against COVID-19 is breaking down. When Joe Biden presented his $1.9 trillion bailout plan on 14 January, some Democrats denounced it as unnecessarily onerous and potentially dangerous for the stability of the US economy. In Europe, fears of excessive indebtedness persist and some propose a drastic solution: the cancellation in the Eurozone of the part of the public debt held by the European Central Bank, a move that ECB president Christine Lagarde has been adamantly against. On the other hand, some sectors of the left also dislike the proposal and reject both austerity policies and the misleading myth of the miraculous cancellation of public debts.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Meanwhile, in\u00a0Le Monde Diplomatique<\/em><\/a>\u00a0Leigh Philips notes that for some environmentalists, the environmental crisis has reached such a level that there is only one possible solution: degrowth. In their view, climate change does not stem from a market-driven and therefore irrational mode of production, but stems directly from growth, which increases energy demand and hinders the goal of decarbonising the economy. In addition, since a reduction in the production of goods would have the opposite effect, it would therefore be essential to reduce economic activity. Philips warns that humans are not always powerless in the face of the disruptions we cause. In the meantime, in\u00a0The NewStatesman<\/em><\/a>, Ido Vock brings to the table an issue of global concern: the border restrictions between countries caused by COVID-19. Aware of the enormous economic impact of these restrictions in all sectors, governments are promoting certain initiatives in order to increase the movement of people in times of pandemic and incomplete vaccination, such as, for example, the vaccination passport that would give more freedom of movement to vaccinated people, or the creation of bubble groups of countries where mobility between countries with a similar health situation would be allowed. However, beware that these measures would also contribute to further increase the inequality gap between countries, as the richest countries will be the first to be vaccinated, and therefore the first to receive tourists, which will boost their economy. In contrast, the poorest countries will take much longer to achieve herd immunity through vaccines and thus their economic recession will continue.\u00a0<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Regarding the climate emergency, Bill Gates’ interviews with several media outlets stand out, such as El Pa\u00eds<\/em><\/a>\u00a0where he argues that the effects of climate change will be far worse than those of the pandemic if we fail to reduce greenhouse gas emissions to zero by 2050. He is aware that this is a Herculean mission, but he does not believe it is impossible if markets, technology and politics focus on the same goal. Gates also warns that the pandemic is making all inequalities worse, ethnic minorities are suffering more economically, they are also getting sicker and dying more, debt is rising, incomes are falling and trust in governments will take at least five years to return to previous levels.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

In the magazine El Salto<\/em><\/a> Pablo Rivas warns that in time of climate emergency, there is one sector that has traditionally been exempt from accountability: the military. In fact, the military is exempt from publicly reporting on its polluting activity and there is no consensus in the European Union on whether it should be required to report. Thus, a report<\/a> by the Conflict and Environment Observatory<\/em> and Scientists for Global Responsibility<\/em> warns of the increase in European military spending, a sector whose emissions represent 24.8 million tonnes of carbon dioxide, equivalent to at least 14 million cars per year. In this context, multilateralism, a commitment to diplomacy and a peace and disarmament agenda would reduce the number of military deployments and arms production. This would make it possible to combat two threats to people’s lives: violence from armed operations and climate change.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Finally, Christopher Darby and Sarah Sewall analyse in Foreign Affairs<\/em><\/a> the struggle for hegemony in technological and scientific innovation and point out that one of the problems is that the major powers focus mainly on technology applied to the military sector, without expanding development to other sectors.  They therefore consider it essential to strengthen collaboration between academia and business to fund research in a field that is acquiring fundamental geopolitical importance. We are facing a new type of conflict scenario, therefore, where Artificial Intelligence will play a key role, as stated by Matthew Hutson in The New Yorker<\/em><\/a> <\/em>where he warns that we are in “a Manhattan Project moment” for AI and machine learning. Indeed, recently, several AI research organisations have started to develop systems to address the ethical impact, and even the legitimacy, of certain lines of research. In this context, facial and voice recognition programmes are often in the firing line, as their ethical development requires training and knowledge of social issues, such as racism or transphobia, which computer scientists do not always have. AI will also be crucial in order to repair the damage caused by the pandemic in our health systems, as argued by Sid Mohasseb in Foreign Policy<\/em><\/a> where he stresses that we need to go beyond simple digitisation and start implementing AI in the health sector. AI has already played an important role during this health emergency by helping to track infections and identify how the virus was spreading. Countries such as the UK have announced a $346 million investment in the sector and the US $1 trillion. But this trend must go beyond a reaction to COVID-19 and must be addressed with a long-term vision.  Indeed, in the face of challenges such as an ageing population or the increase in the number of people in a situation of dependency, the use of AI would be a good way to improve the management of health systems.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

We publish the new editorial of the Diari de les idees in the middle of the negotiation process for the formation of the new Catalan government after the February 14 elections. This election has meant a new victory for the pro-independence parties, which have extended their majority in the Catalan Parliament and surpassed the symbolic threshold of half of the votes, reaching 51.2%.  Despite the relative victory of the PSC by just over 49,000 votes and 33 seats, ERC also has 33 seats, leading the pro-independence forces and surpassing Junts per Catalunya, which has obtained 32 MPs and is in\u2026<\/p>\n","protected":false},"featured_media":35335,"template":"","category_newspaper":[320],"segment":[],"subject":[],"class_list":["post-37121","newspaper","type-newspaper","status-publish","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category_newspaper-320"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"\nDiari de les idees 38 – IDEES<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/revistaidees.cat\/en\/analisis\/diari-de-les-idees\/diari-de-les-idees-38\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Diari de les idees 38 – IDEES\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"We publish the new editorial of the Diari de les idees in the middle of the negotiation process for the formation of the new Catalan government after the February 14 elections. 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