{"id":47725,"date":"2021-10-07T09:18:30","date_gmt":"2021-10-07T09:18:30","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/revistaidees.cat\/analisis\/diari-de-les-idees\/diari-de-les-idees-48\/"},"modified":"2021-10-22T06:27:30","modified_gmt":"2021-10-22T06:27:30","slug":"diari-de-les-idees-48","status":"publish","type":"newspaper","link":"https:\/\/revistaidees.cat\/en\/analisis\/diari-de-les-idees\/diari-de-les-idees-48\/","title":{"rendered":"Diari de les idees 48"},"content":{"rendered":"\n

This new issue of Diari de les idees<\/em>, focuses on the analysis of the geostrategic changes that will affect the development of international politics in the coming years, such as the new AUKUS alliance between the United States, the United Kingdom and Australia in order to determine a new distribution of roles in the control of the entire Indo-Pacific area and especially the Strait of Malacca. In terms of Catalan politics, the brief arrest in Alghero of former president of the Generalitat Carles Puigdemont stands out. As noted in the daily Ara<\/em><\/a> former Constitutional Court lawyer Joaqu\u00edn Ur\u00edas, some see the Spanish judiciary as a suicidal driver who, going in the wrong direction on a motorway, believes other drivers are wrong. However, everything suggests that they know they are going in the wrong direction, but believe that the motorway is theirs.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

We also devote special attention to the German elections in view of the implications of Angela Merkel’s replacement as Europe’s top leader. The new chancellor will have to reposition himself in the European leadership and weave new complicities to face the stability of the EU and future policies. This at a particularly decisive moment for the EU with the implementation of the EU NextGeneration funds, the challenges of the ecological and digital transitions, the search for strategic autonomy in terms of defence, the increase in gas and electricity prices and the scarcity of raw materials…<\/p>\n\n\n\n

In international politics, the alliance between the United States, the United Kingdom and Australia in an attempt to balance naval forces with the People’s Republic of China in the Pacific Ocean is one of those events that define an epochal shift. The US is forging closer ties with what remains of the former British Empire, underpinning Brexit, while the European Union is left out of the equation and the new global centre of gravity is consolidating its shift towards the Strait of Malacca, the geographical enclave separating the Malaysian peninsula and the island of Sumatra, through which a quarter of the world’s goods production flows. More than 50,000 ships a year.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The last few weeks have seen interesting reactions to the AUKUS that has led to the cancellation of the contract signed with France to deliver conventionally powered submarines. The deal has been warmly welcomed in some key Indo-Pacific countries. In India, it has been hailed as a step forward in the coalition of countries most concerned about China’s rise. Japan, too, appreciates the Australians’ clear stance, which contrasts with the hesitancy of the Europeans, who have been publicly criticised by Japanese officials for their indecision over the tone to adopt with China. Yet this creates discomfort for other Southeast Asian countries because, in the end, it will force local actors to adopt a clearer stance, which Vietnam, for example, has no interest in doing. Regional balances are complex and it is one thing to act to counterbalance China’s growing weight, but quite another to position oneself alongside the US.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Finally, the reaction of the Europeans. The snub of the cancellation of the contract with France has caused the Trade and Technology Council initiated in the United States to break off negotiations with EU emissaries. This will slow down negotiations to create a complementary front to curb China’s technological advance. We will also have to keep an eye on what might happen in the military sphere, as France has reacted by invoking more strategic autonomy. Finally, and beyond the case of the submarine sales contract, it is worth noting that France is the only European power with territories in the region (Polynesia, New Caledonia and Wallis and Futuna), some of which are in very sensitive situations. This is the case of New Caledonia, where, in accordance with the 1998 Noum\u00e9a Agreement, two independence referendums have already been held, with a steady increase in the favourable vote. The last and final vote is scheduled for 12 December.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Similarly, Jeremy Cliffe argues in The New Statesman<\/em><\/a> that the AUKUS alliance is only the beginning of the conflict between China and the United States in the Indo-Pacific region. It is also clear what the intentions of the United States are. First, the will to counterbalance effectively China in this region. Second, the unusual initiative to share its technology with its allies, partially relinquishing the relative monopoly it has enjoyed until now (it is important to note that, unlike the contract signed with France, the new agreement includes the supply of nuclear-powered submarines). Finally, the new agreement points to a new system of alliances, where multiple actors (AUKUS and other military alliances such as Five Eyes or Quad) can converge into a more flexible network of allies in order to make agreements with third countries as well. This would represent a shift in US strategy, which has so far focused on bilateral relations between countries.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Because of this crisis and the geostrategic changes it brings, it is necessary to strengthen multilateralism as Robert Muggah and Giovanna Kuelea point out in Foreign Policy<\/em><\/a> where they stress that the world is at a historic turning point. It faces interconnected threats that could undermine global stability: a long-lasting pandemic, accelerating climate change, deepening inequalities and economic insecurity, massive digital vulnerabilities and the proliferation of nuclear and biological weapons. Now more than ever, then, humanity’s collective future depends on effective cooperation, and to avoid expanding global instability, Ant\u00f3nio Guterres, the recently re-elected UN secretary-general, has called for a new impetus to multilateralism. In his report “Our Common Agenda” presented to the UN General Assembly, Guterres set out the plan to achieve this and proposed an urgent reset of the global system that takes into account the needs of future generations. Therefore, an urgent process must be initiated to revitalise multilateralism and make the UN more relevant in global economic governance.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

In Catalonia, Jordi Barbeta argues in El Nacional<\/em><\/a> that as long as the exile is not resolved, the wound between Catalonia and Spain will remain open and, like the volcano on La Palma, will erupt sporadically depending on the circumstances. Only a dignified exit for the president, who was democratically elected and dismissed thanks to distorted legislation, will allow a gradual return to political normality with a de-escalated conflict that socialists and republicans seek and a large part of Catalan society yearns for. Overall, the most alarming thing that the events in Alguer have revealed is the extent to which the judicial bunker is willing to use Puigdemont or whatever it takes to bring down the coalition government formed by the PSOE and Unidas Podemos. It seems as if the Deep State is aiming for a traumatic overthrow of the current government in response to the difficulty of the increasingly extreme Spanish right wing to gain power democratically.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The European agenda in recent weeks has been marked by two events: the State of the Union address by the President of the Commission and the elections in Germany. As regards the first topic, David Herszenhorn analyzes in Politico<\/em><\/a> Ursula von der Leyen’s speech and highlights that the President underlined the importance and strength of European values, but also addressed the EU’s situation in international politics, and internal disputes, suggesting that the EU struggles to achieve its goals and project itself internationally. She also touched on the two main axes of the post-pandemic recovery, climate action and digital initiative policies, promising a new agreement for chip manufacturing in the EU, which would allow for more technological autonomy from Asia. Finally, von der Leyen also referred to the need for greater European strategic autonomy in light of the West’s withdrawal from Afghanistan and the new AUKUS treaty.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Likewise, in The Financial Times<\/em><\/a> Henry Foy and Sam Fleming argue that the new agreement signed between the US, Australia and the UK demonstrates the need for greater military collaboration between EU states. While aware of the need to take on more responsibility for protecting the continent, European defence officials, recognise that stronger and more effective collaboration among member states cannot replace partnership with the US. The question is therefore not how to make Europe militarily independent of the US, but how to make it a more reliable ally. Indeed, key EU member states are well aware of the extent to which the US has reoriented its foreign policy towards competition with China, leaving European security issues as a lower priority than they were during the Cold War. In this context, it is also not surprising that a few days after meeting with Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi for bilateral talks the US president attended the first Quadrilateral Security Dialogue summit with the leaders of Australia, India and Japan. A new set of meetings, then, underscores the growing urgency with which Washington and its partners are trying to reshape the balance of power in the Indo-Pacific region.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

As regards the second major issue, Florian Elder<\/a> y Matthew  Karnitschnig<\/a> analyse in Politico<\/em> the recent elections in Germany, which have ended in a virtual dead heat between the two dominant forces, the Social Democrats of the SPD and the conservative CDU-CSU alliance. This will entail a long coalition-building process that will probably keep Merkel at the helm of the country provisionally through the autumn if not beyond. The only thing that is sure right now is that after Merkel, Germany will follow the transatlantic course and moderate parties will continue to lead Europe’s most populous country. Remarkably, however, none of the mainstream parties won more than a quarter of the vote, so it seems that their traditional dominance of government coalitions is about to end. Indeed, instead of the two-party coalition that has dominated post-war German politics, a three-party alliance is almost certain, although it is difficult to predict which ones. Both the Greens and the FDP seem destined to join this coalition but the key question is whether they will ally with the centre-right or the centre-left.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Also important for the future of Europe are the sessions of the Conference on the future of Europe, which Guillaume Sacriste and Karolina Boro\u0144ska-Hryniewiecka review in Le Grand Continent<\/em><\/a>. For the Conference to succeed, MPs from member states should be given a more prominent place to reinforce the legitimacy of the Conference, if the debates are to deliver concrete policy proposals. Indeed, not inviting MEPs to participate in the more strategic parts of the deliberative process could give prominence to the various Eurosceptic voices in discrediting the recommendations made by citizens. It could also lead to accusations of a lack of transparency or potential diversion of citizens’ input into policy deliberations. Participatory democracy and representative democracy are two essential dimensions of the EU’s legitimacy. Therefore, the citizens’ recommendations to be presented to the plenary assembly of the Conference in spring 2022 should also be the subject of parliamentary debates in each member state since, like it or not, national parliaments are the main representatives of the different European demoi<\/em>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

In the economic field, Michele Barbero analyses in Foreign Policy<\/em><\/a> Europe’s future fiscal policies. As the COVID-19 pandemic comes under control, economies are finally starting to rebound and a major political battle is brewing over what a post-pandemic European Union should look like. A heated debate has thus begun over whether member states’ spending and debt restrictions – suspended in March 2020 because of the COVID-19 crisis – should be restored or substantially loosened in the longer term. At stake is a battle for Europe’s financial soul between fiscally conservative northern countries like Germany and the Netherlands, and southern European countries like Spain, France and Italy that have long demanded more spending flexibility. The challenge is important, not least because there is now a real and unprecedented opportunity to change the rules. The north-south divide is recurrent in European politics and in the past, it has provoked deep resentment, such as when painful austerity measures aimed at fiscal consolidation were imposed across the bloc after the 2008 financial crisis. It resurfaced again last spring, when Germany and the Netherlands initially resisted emergency measures to boost Europe’s confiscation-damaged economies. During the pandemic, as governments increased their borrowing to support workers and businesses, public debt soared across the EU. In the first quarter of 2021, the EU’s median public debt has grown by 14% compared to a year earlier. Germany’s debt has exceeded 70 per cent of its GDP, while France’s has reached 118 per cent, Italy’s 160 per cent and Greece’s 200 per cent. Unlike in the past – thanks in part to the joint issuance of EU debt and the European Central Bank’s huge bond-buying programme – there are now no substantial differences between countries at least as far as the bond market is concerned.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

For their part, Antonio Turiel and Juan Bordera review in Contexto<\/em><\/a> the current crisis in raw materials and supply chains. At first, it was microchips. Production was not enough and car factories started to shut down for a few days to accommodate their production. Then many building materials started to become scarce – and more expensive -: rolled steel, aluminium, copper, foundations, even wood. Some pigments, epoxy resins and various types of plastics are also in short supply. The list of raw materials in short supply is getting longer and longer, and this is starting to affect the materials made from them. There is a shortage of spare parts for some cars, or for bicycles. Computers and printers have quietly disappeared from the catalogue. Nevertheless, the problem does not end there: some foodstuffs are also becoming scarce, this year the wheat harvest in Russia will be poor and the price of wheat is rising. There is a shortage of steel and aluminium for cans, container and shipping costs have increased tenfold or twentyfold. But that’s not all: suddenly the price of electricity has also skyrocketed, and families and businesses are suffering.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

With a view to the upcoming COP26 in Glasgow, several authors warn of the growing urgency of the fight against climate change. Thus, Oliver Milman denounces in The Guardian<\/em><\/a> that none of the major greenhouse gas emitting countries have made sufficient plans to reduce pollution to meet the 2015 Paris Climate Agreement. This means that the world will be increasingly subject to more disastrous climate impacts. Under the Paris Agreement, countries pledged to prevent the global average temperature from rising more than 1.5\u00b0C above pre-industrial times to avoid heatwaves, floods, storms, droughts and other consequences that are already beginning to be felt. But a new Climate Action Tracker study finds that virtually no country is meeting this commitment. In August, a major report by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), the world’s leading authority on climate science, found that the burning of fossil fuels is changing the Earth’s climate as never before, and that rapid cuts in greenhouse gases are needed to avert climate disaster. Even countries with strong climate targets are not on track to meet them, while international funding to help poorer countries cope with the climate crisis is falling short.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

A good example of this is the situation in the Middle East. Anchal Vohra warns in Foreign Policy<\/em><\/a> that the region is warming twice as fast as the global average and that if this continues, the temperature increase will be 4 degrees Celsius by 2050. At the same time, the World Bank predicts that extreme weather conditions will become more frequent and that the region could face long periods of well above normal temperatures. Moreover, the Max Planck Institute says that many cities in the Middle East may become uninhabitable before the end of the century. All this in a region already weakened by armed conflict, widespread corruption and inter-religious disputes that make it difficult to deal effectively with the challenges that threaten its future. In this context, it should be stressed that it is the poor countries in the region – which do not have the resources derived from oil – that suffer most from the social instability caused by the lack of basic facilities such as water and electricity.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Finally, in the field of new technologies, we highlight two articles that deal with China’s increasingly important role in this area. The Economist<\/em><\/a> argues that with the policy of blocking foreign competitors such as Facebook and Google, domestic tech giants have ruled for two decades the Chinese market. Until now the Communist Party had maintained a tight grip on policy, tech companies had considerable room for manoeuvre in their business activities. However, the Communist Party has now made a U-turn, reminding the internet billionaires who holds the real power and pushing for a profound change and using a series of new laws and regulations to force tech companies to alter their behaviour and products, with the aim of controlling everything the Chinese see and do online. Thus, the new rules will force tech companies to write code for their platforms in a way that promotes content the government likes and inhibits content the government does not.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

At the same time, Naubahar Sharif points out in La Vanguardia<\/em><\/a> that that if China were to eventually match or surpass Western technology leaders, the scale of its operations would profoundly alter the global technology landscape. In this respect, China can leverage three different sources of competitive advantage to develop its capacity for technological innovation. First, and this is no secret, a large domestic market. The other two are strong state intervention in the field of industrial policy, and globalisation itself, which complement market size and provide the country with a path to global technological leadership. Of course, the first two factors are not new historically, but they are new for China. The US has benefited in the past from the development of a large domestic market and even from strong, interventionist government support. The third factor, globalisation, is of much more recent origin and, in recent times, is seen by some as still subject to much hesitation.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

This new issue of Diari de les idees, focuses on the analysis of the geostrategic changes that will affect the development of international politics in the coming years, such as the new AUKUS alliance between the United States, the United Kingdom and Australia in order to determine a new distribution of roles in the control of the entire Indo-Pacific area and especially the Strait of Malacca. In terms of Catalan politics, the brief arrest in Alghero of former president of the Generalitat Carles Puigdemont stands out. As noted in the daily Ara former Constitutional Court lawyer Joaqu\u00edn Ur\u00edas, some see\u2026<\/p>\n","protected":false},"featured_media":47042,"template":"","category_newspaper":[320],"segment":[],"subject":[],"class_list":["post-47725","newspaper","type-newspaper","status-publish","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category_newspaper-320"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"\nDiari de les idees 48 – IDEES<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/revistaidees.cat\/en\/analisis\/diari-de-les-idees\/diari-de-les-idees-48\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Diari de les idees 48 – IDEES\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"This new issue of Diari de les idees, focuses on the analysis of the geostrategic changes that will affect the development of international politics in the coming years, such as the new AUKUS alliance between the United States, the United Kingdom and Australia in order to determine a new distribution of roles in the control of the entire Indo-Pacific area and especially the Strait of Malacca. 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