{"id":52763,"date":"2021-12-22T09:09:37","date_gmt":"2021-12-22T09:09:37","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/revistaidees.cat\/analisis\/diari-de-les-idees\/diari-de-les-idees-52\/"},"modified":"2022-01-19T08:33:11","modified_gmt":"2022-01-19T08:33:11","slug":"diari-de-les-idees-52","status":"publish","type":"newspaper","link":"https:\/\/revistaidees.cat\/en\/analisis\/diari-de-les-idees\/diari-de-les-idees-52\/","title":{"rendered":"Diari de les idees 52"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<p>In the last issue of the year, <em>Diari de les idees<\/em> highlights the growing tension between Russia and Ukraine, which, in turn, affects the global strategies of the European Union, NATO, the United States and China. At the same time, there is the moment of transition in Europe after the withdrawal of German Chancellor Angela Merkel, in which a new Berlin-Paris-Rome-Brussels axis seems to be being drafted. All this in a global context that continues to be marked by the economic impact of COVID-19, now with its omicron variant, as well as the sustained rise in energy prices and inflation.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Starting with the tensions in the east of the European continent, we have to keep in mind that there is already war in Ukraine, a low-intensity war in its eastern regions, which since 2014 has caused more than three thousand deaths and seven thousand wounded, the vast majority of them civilians. Now, the confrontation could escalate with a head-on clash between the Ukrainian army and the Russian troops that Vladimir Putin has been amassing on the border between the two countries. Such a conflict would put NATO in a very delicate position. A country like Poland, historically very hostile to Russia, would feel called directly into action while Belarus would immediately side with Moscow. The risk of escalation exists and the US president, in an attempt to curb it, has opened the door to negotiations between Russia and a group of five NATO countries (the United States, Germany, France, Italy and the United Kingdom).&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>In this situation, Western countries are seeking a difficult balancing act with the threat of significant economic retaliation that does not cause excessive collateral damage. On the military side, Ukraine is not a NATO member and therefore not protected by the mutual defence clause, and it is clear that no one is considering active NATO troop involvement. Economically, there is a wide range of options, some of which could indeed be very painful for Russia. However, there are also many collateral risks here that complicate the scenario. Indeed, many economic sanctions options would entail considerable damage for the West, and in an asymmetric way, hitting the EU in particular with respect to gas supplies, making consensus among partners difficult. Hitting Russian oil exports, as has been done in the past with Iran, is also not a viable option in the face of a country like Russia, a key producer for the European market and at a time of energy price increases.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>In <a href=\"http:\/\/www.slate.fr\/story\/219870\/russie-menace-invasion-ukraine-poutine-pari-otan-occident-risque-guerre\"><em>Slate<\/em><\/a>, however, Fred Kaplan relativizes the dangers of an armed conflict and argues that an invasion of Ukraine would pose two major problems for Putin. First, he would have to occupy Ukrainian territory for a long time, and the Russian military has never been very good at sustaining offensive operations or supply lines, which would be vulnerable to guerrilla action. Second, it would galvanise NATO as a military and political alliance as never before since the end of the Cold War. It would mean that the United States could return to Europe in force, at a time when Biden is reorienting towards China and the Indo-Pacific space. This strengthening of transatlantic relations would destroy a strategy Putin has been pursuing for a decade, a crucial element of his foreign policy, which is to promote the weakening of relations between the United States and its allies.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>It is against this backdrop of tension that the democracy summit convened by the US president took place in early December. In its editorial, the newspaper&nbsp;<a href=\"https:\/\/www.lemonde.fr\/idees\/article\/2021\/12\/11\/le-sommet-pour-la-democratie-de-joe-biden-a-decu_6105670_3232.html\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\"><em>Le Monde<\/em><\/a>&nbsp;considers that the summit has proved to be a model of a false good idea. The US administration has thus had to settle for minimum service (criticism of bad government, praise for the work of the media) on an issue that is nonetheless of paramount importance, since democracy is in decline almost everywhere. On the other hand, as pointed out by Nathalie Tocci in <a href=\"https:\/\/www.politico.eu\/article\/president-joe-biden-us-china-european-union-eu27\/\"><em>Politico<\/em><\/a> the classic foreign policy instruments for the promotion of democratic values such as economic sanctions, military interventions or trade agreements are a thing of the past, at a time when the United States no longer wants to (or can) be the world&#8217;s policeman. The prudent management of the crisis in Ukraine and Biden&#8217;s rhetorical commitment to strengthening democracies thus define a new era in international relations.&lt;A[relations|relationships]&gt;. As <a href=\"https:\/\/www.cfr.org\/book\/isolationism\">Charles&nbsp; A. Kupchan<\/a> argues in his book <em>Isolationism: A History of America&#8217;s Efforts to Shield Itself from the World<\/em> (Oxford University Press, 2020), the US faces an era of &#8220;mixed bipolarity&#8221; where for the first time in its history, Washington faces a competitor at all levels, China. The USSR was not. Its GDP never exceeded 55% of that of the US. This time it is different. Soon China&#8217;s economy will be the world&#8217;s largest and today two thirds of the world&#8217;s countries do more business with China than with the US.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>It is interesting that precisely at this moment of tensions and redefinitions of global and particular strategies, the new&nbsp;<a href=\"https:\/\/ecfr.eu\/special\/power-atlas\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">atlas<\/a>&nbsp;of power of the European Council on Foreign Relations has been published with the aim of better understanding the actions and strategies of states, and finding ways to coexist more peacefully. Today, digital information is key to global dominance. Fifty-seven per cent of the world&#8217;s population is connected to the internet, although the balance is still tilted towards the northern hemisphere. Countries no longer compete with weapons but with digital infrastructure. Digital companies have already overtaken oil companies: whereas in 1980 seven of the world&#8217;s ten most valuable companies were in oil or gas business and only one in information flows, today six of the ten most productive firms are digital-based. Although the US retains the market leadership today, China has become the world&#8217;s largest investor in technology. In recent years, some 3,800 Chinese technology companies have expanded across their borders, and in 2020 Beijing spent $378 billion &#8211; 2.4% of GDP &#8211; on digital research.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Another factor that is changing power relations is climate change, as the ecological transition from fossil fuels towards green energy sources &#8211; mainly in the United States and Europe &#8211; has changed certain dynamics. Indeed, changes in demand for oil and coal are having a major impact on exporting countries such as Qatar, Saudi Arabia and Iraq. At the same time, other countries are benefiting from the increase in renewable energies. Studies agree on the potential of African countries to use sunlight as a driver of industry, as well as South America, which in addition to a good capacity for photovoltaics is a major beneficiary of wind energy.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>As for Catalan politics, Vicent Partal analyzes in <a href=\"https:\/\/www.vilaweb.cat\/noticies\/la-venjanca-europeista-per-que-lindependentisme-guanya-als-tribunals-europeus\/\"><em>Vilaweb<\/em><\/a> the reasons why the European courts, especially the CJEU, agree with the pro-independence movement, and argues that it is necessary to observe what has given rise to a confluence of interests that has Europeanism as a common resource that unites Catalan politicians and European justice. Partal considers that the significant part lies in the way in which the current European Union has been built. Until now, any process of union of states was based either on dynastic unions or on wars. The European Union, however, is trying out a new model that has been extremely effective: the homogenisation of laws, which equalises societies from below and therefore, avoids the major problems that would make the project impossible. However, the CJEU detected a flaw in the system decades ago. If the laws on both sides of the internal borders are the same but each government applies them differently, the whole project falls like a house of cards. That is why, after the adoption of the Lisbon Treaty, Europe has a constitution voluntarily signed by all member states, which is no longer simply an international agreement, but from which rights and obligations are derived for the states, but also, for the first time, for the citizens. Moreover, here lies the key to everything. The Treaty of Lisbon establishes a union of states and citizens and, consequently, all European citizens have the same rights that are indisputable, guaranteed precisely by the CJEU. Thus, the CJEU has become a kind of vanguard of Europeanism, and this is where the confluence of Catalan nationalism and its interests lies. The Catalan pro-independence movement and European justice simply coincide in what they want to achieve, i.e. to put Europe above the states, in this case thanks to the pre-eminence of European law over state law.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Mercedes Yusta analyses in <a href=\"https:\/\/legrandcontinent.eu\/fr\/2021\/12\/02\/lespagne-et-la-posterite-du-franquisme\/\"><em>Le Grand Continent<\/em><\/a> the survival of Francoism in certain political parties and Spanish state structures and points out that Spain, or at least part of its society and political class, has not renounced the Francoist past. In this sense, all the actors of the transition to democracy, both from the right and, above all, from the left, are unanimous in recognizing that the Transition was above all what could be done depending on the circumstances, both internal and external. In the midst of the Cold War and after the agitation that the Carnation Revolution in Portugal had provoked in the European chancelleries, no government was willing to support a radical break in Spain. Thus, King Juan Carlos, appointed by Franco himself as his successor, was able to count on international support to moderate a process of transition to democracy that would leave the existing political infrastructure practically intact. In addition, which would recycle a substantial part of Franco&#8217;s political, administrative, judicial and military personnel. Yusta considers that the success of the Transition was built on the failure to condemn Franco&#8217;s regime, which entailed impunity for the crimes committed in its name, and on the relegation of its victims to the background of the history of the supposed triumphal advent of democracy.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>At European level, the magazine&nbsp;<a href=\"https:\/\/www.politico.eu\/politico-28-class-of-2022\/\"><em>Politico<\/em><\/a>&nbsp;publishes like every year its list of the most influential people leading the debate and driving decisions in Europe, which this year revolves around one central theme: who will tackle the problems that Angela Merkel leaves unresolved. After 16 years at the helm of Europe&#8217;s largest economy, the German chancellor has retired and her legacy is characterised by stability but no long-term problem-solving measures. The magazine&#8217;s list draws on the experience of its editors, as well as the expertise of diplomats and politicians, to provide an informed snapshot of who is best placed to shape European policy over the next twelve months. As in previous years, the ranking consists of three lists: the doers (those who hold the executive power), the dreamers (those who channel ideas to drive the debate) and the disrupters (those who can change the game in unexpected ways). The composition of the list thus reflects the challenges that have remained unresolved during Merkel&#8217;s four terms in office: monetary union, growing threats such as China or Russia, the climate crisis, the migration problem, the harmful effects of social networks, and the fight against the coronavirus. The magazine singles out the Italian Prime Minister and former head of the ECB, Mario Draghi, as the most influential personality in Europe; among doers, Olaf Scholtz, the new German Chancellor. Among dreamers, the mayor of Paris and presidential candidate Anne Hidalgo; and the former Polish Prime Minister and former President of the European Council Donald Tusk, among the disrupters.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Beatriz Navarro analyzes in <a href=\"https:\/\/www.lavanguardia.com\/internacional\/20211201\/7902901\/pulso-influencia-global.html\"><em>La Vanguardia<\/em><\/a> the <em>Global <\/em><em>European<\/em> <em>Initiative Getaway<\/em>, an investment plan capable of mobilising up to 300 billion euros to build infrastructures around the world, an initiative with a clear geostrategic vocation that is born, a few years late, in response to the new Silk Road promoted by China. The plan will draw on EU development aid, pre-accession funds and research and development programmes, among others, while also working with international financial institutions such as the European Investment Bank and the European Bank for Reconstruction and Development. With the help of private investment, Commission economists estimate that 300 billion euros could be mobilised between 2021 and 2027. Ultimately, the plan is an attempt to put an end to the EU&#8217;s weakness in the world, a situation caused by a succession of internal and global crises (the debt crisis, the 2015 migration wave, Brexit, COVID-19) while China and other actors gained ground.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>From the pages of <a href=\"https:\/\/www.theguardian.com\/society\/2021\/nov\/25\/society-thatcher-reagan-covid-pandemic\"><em>The Guardian, <\/em>Jill Lepore<\/a> explores what society will be like in a post-pandemic world by analysing the main theoretical contributions developed throughout the 20th and 21st centuries. The pandemic has forced a large number of people to withdraw from the real and social world, but long before the lockdowns, intellectuals and policy makers had already warned of the weakening of social bonds. After World War II, research on the rise of totalitarianism shattered liberals&#8217; faith in society and conservatism pointed to the vulnerability of the masses in political persuasion. Later, Thatcher and Reagan denied the existence of society and presented the market as the only place to find solutions to individuals&#8217; problems. This vision contributed to the dismantling of social systems, and now underpins the deregulated and privatised architecture of the Internet. Lepore believes that, despite the intentions of the creators of social networks to repair the social bounds, they are destroying them. For its part, totalitarianism remains a danger, but no longer so much from states, but rather from large corporations that control data, knowledge and information.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Another disruptive factor for the future of democracies is the management of migration flows, and Stephen M. Walt notes in <a href=\"https:\/\/foreignpolicy.com\/2021\/11\/30\/belarus-europe-migration-refugees-global-order\/\"><em>Foreign Policy<\/em><\/a><em> <\/em>that the current migrant crisis in Belarus demonstrates very clearly the failure of the current global order to solve a growing problem. The use of induced migration works as a method of coercion, as it exploits pre-existing conflicts within destination states and the fact that there are not enough politically powerful voices demanding acceptance of migrants, and EU policymakers know this. They also know that there are many more potential refugees in the countries of origin and that accepting Lukashenko&#8217;s demand that the EU lift the sanctions it imposed after his fraudulent victory in the 2020 elections would only lead the dictator to continue with the same tactic. Likewise, pressuring Poland to open the border would give the green light to many potential migrants that the EU is unwilling to accept right now. Thus, in order not to create parallels with the migrant crisis of 2015, Brussels has described the conflict not as a migration crisis but as an &#8216;attempt by an authoritarian regime to destabilise its democratic neighbours&#8217;. Although objectively an ageing and shrinking Europe would benefit economically from increased immigration, the 2015 refugee crisis helped unleash a wave of right-wing populism and generated a shift in European public opinion towards more anti-immigrant positions. Even so, we must be aware that the situation will worsen in the coming years, as demographics, growing economic inequality, political violence and climate change will force more people to migrate to richer or safer countries, and destination countries are unlikely to welcome them warmly. Current trends indicate that the opposite is likely to be the case.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>On the economic front, <a href=\"https:\/\/www.economist.com\/leaders\/2021\/12\/04\/what-the-omicron-variant-means-for-the-world-economy\"><em>The Economist<\/em><\/a>&#8216;s forecasts on the impact of the omicron variant of COVID-19 stand out. Faced with the prospect of further lockdowns (such as what the Netherlands decreed in late December), border closures and nervous markets, investors have reacted by selling shares in airlines and hotel chains. The price of oil has fallen by about $10 a barrel, a drop that is often associated with an impending recession, and the threat of a revival of the pandemic amplifies three existing dangers. The first is that any restrictions that may be applied in the first world will harm growth in the wider world. The spread of the omicron variant is also likely to intensify the restriction of free movement within the first world, with the result that the expected recovery of developed countries&#8217; service industries will be postponed. Secondly, the variant could increase the already high level of inflation, while it could trigger further blockades in key manufacturing centres such as Vietnam and Malaysia, aggravating supply problems. Finally, it could trigger a slowdown in China, the world&#8217;s second largest economy, which would also end up hurting global economic growth and disrupting supply chains again.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>On the subject of climate change, Rafael Poch analyses in <a href=\"https:\/\/ctxt.es\/es\/20211201\/Firmas\/37954\/geopolitica-energias-imperalismo-petroleo-transicion.htm\"><em>CTXT<\/em><\/a> magazine the role of renewable energies in global geopolitics and warns that thinking that the energy transition consists of replacing fossil energies with renewables is unrealistic. In fact, renewable energy sources as we know them today cannot replace fossil fuels because they do not have the capacity to generate the same amount of energy. On the other hand, according to a <a href=\"https:\/\/www.iea.org\/reports\/the-role-of-critical-minerals-in-clean-energy-transitions\">report<\/a> of the International Energy Agency, if climate targets are to be met, demand for minerals for the development of clean energy technologies will increase at least fourfold by 2040. The IEA estimates that in twenty years, demand for lithium will increase fifty-fold and for cobalt and graphite thirty-fold. In this context, it is worth recalling how the imperialism of oil resources has determined geopolitical strategy throughout the 19th and 20th centuries. While oil and gas deposits are scattered around the world, the difference now is that many of the minerals needed for the energy transition are concentrated in very specific geographic areas. Most copper ore is supplied by just four countries: Chile, Argentina, Peru and the Democratic Republic of Congo. Likewise, the main reserves of lithium are in three countries: Australia, Argentina and Chile. Finally, while China has 70 per cent of rare earths, the Democratic Republic of Congo accounts for 80 per cent of cobalt production. The geographic concentration of these resources can therefore pose serious geopolitical problems.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>At the same time, Lucas Chancel defends in <a href=\"https:\/\/www.theguardian.com\/commentisfree\/2021\/dec\/07\/we-cant-address-the-climate-crisis-unless-we-also-take-on-global-inequality\"><em>The Guardian<\/em><\/a> the need of considering inequality in climate policy making. The poorest half of the population hardly has any wealth, so they are little or not at all responsible for the emissions associated with climate change, and therefore have less capacity to decarbonise their consumption. For this reason, the big emitters would have to make the greatest effort to combat the climate emergency. In fact, the poorest half of the population in the US and most European countries have already reached or almost reached the target of significantly reducing emissions by 2030, while the middle and wealthy classes are still well above it. Chancel therefore argues for a shift away from egalitarian strategies and towards serious economic redistribution to compensate the most disadvantaged consumers.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Finally, and in relation to technological innovation, <a href=\"https:\/\/www.theguardian.com\/commentisfree\/2021\/dec\/06\/google-silicon-valley-ai-timnit-gebru\">Timnit Gebru<\/a>, ex-worker of Google, argues that ethical Artificial Intelligence requires research programmes independent of the big tech companies and protection for whistle-blowers. Gebru was fired from Google after publishing an article describing the harms of AI models used by digital platforms. These companies prioritise growth above all else, as evidenced by the effects that misinformation and hate speech on social media have had on the situation in Ethiopia. On the one hand, labour protections are necessary to curb the dominance of big tech by empowering workers who speak out against the harms of AI. On the other hand, anti-trust regulations are crucial to prevent tech giants themselves from controlling the AI research agenda and funding.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Martin Gak presents <a href=\"https:\/\/www.opendemocracy.net\/en\/technology-and-democracy\/a-ten-point-manifesto-for-a-digital-european-citizenship\/\"><em>Open Democracy<\/em><\/a> a manifesto to promote European values through the transformation of the digital sphere. Large technology companies have become indispensable to the exercise of certain functions of public authorities, and the European rule of law has thus lost sovereign power to the rules defined by the terms and conditions of service of these companies. Never has any set of policy instruments contributed so much to the erosion of liberal democracy, and it is clear that Brussels cannot tackle this rollback with regulation alone. It takes courage and commitment for the EU to define clear political priorities and achievable goals, as well as a Charter of Digital Rights that establishes the political and ethical basis on which jurisprudence. In this sense, Gak advocates introducing European values into the digital public sphere through the algorithmic infrastructure of the main platforms. He also advocates establishing an executive mechanism to ensure effective enforcement of regulations, as well as for the European Union to promote the development of its own digital tools on an industrial scale. Finally, according to the <a href=\"https:\/\/stateofeuropeantech.com\/chapter\/executive-summary\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">report<\/a><em>State of&nbsp;<\/em><em>European<\/em><em>&nbsp;<\/em><em>Tech<\/em><em>&nbsp;2021<\/em>,&nbsp;start-ups on the European continent have tripled their investment in a single year, from 36 billion euros to 107 billion euros by 2021. In this way, Europe is closing the gap with the United States: while the US accounts for 35% of global technology investment, Europe now accounts for 33%, leaving Asia in second place. The good health of the European ecosystem is largely due to the UK market, which continues to lead in terms of investment. Germany, France, Sweden and the Netherlands, at a considerable distance, follow it. Spain remains in the second European division as, despite having regained dynamism, it is still at the bottom in terms of the number of start-ups per million inhabitants. In order to improve the results, the report stresses that two major problems need to be solved. On the one hand, access to financing should be improved, since one third of the capital comes from American investment funds. On the other hand, access to technological talent should be facilitated. In this sense, the biggest challenge is the incorporation of women into the technology sector, which is still far from reaching parity.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Laura Puente, Laura van der Haar, Eva Lam and Enric Brugu\u00e9s, trainees at the CETC<\/strong>,<strong> have contributed to this 52 issue of Diari de les idees<\/strong>.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>In the last issue of the year, Diari de les idees highlights the growing tension between Russia and Ukraine, which, in turn, affects the global strategies of the European Union, NATO, the United States and China. At the same time, there is the moment of transition in Europe after the withdrawal of German Chancellor Angela Merkel, in which a new Berlin-Paris-Rome-Brussels axis seems to be being drafted. All this in a global context that continues to be marked by the economic impact of COVID-19, now with its omicron variant, as well as the sustained rise in energy prices and inflation.\u2026<\/p>\n","protected":false},"featured_media":52116,"template":"","category_newspaper":[320],"segment":[],"subject":[],"class_list":["post-52763","newspaper","type-newspaper","status-publish","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category_newspaper-320"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v27.3 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>Diari de les idees 52 &#8211; IDEES<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/revistaidees.cat\/en\/analisis\/diari-de-les-idees\/diari-de-les-idees-52\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Diari de les idees 52 &#8211; IDEES\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"In the last issue of the year, Diari de les idees highlights the growing tension between Russia and Ukraine, which, in turn, affects the global strategies of the European Union, NATO, the United States and China. At the same time, there is the moment of transition in Europe after the withdrawal of German Chancellor Angela Merkel, in which a new Berlin-Paris-Rome-Brussels axis seems to be being drafted. 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