{"id":56541,"date":"2022-04-07T06:14:11","date_gmt":"2022-04-07T06:14:11","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/revistaidees.cat\/analisis\/diari-de-les-idees\/diari-de-les-idees-58\/"},"modified":"2022-04-11T11:22:09","modified_gmt":"2022-04-11T11:22:09","slug":"diari-de-les-idees-58","status":"publish","type":"newspaper","link":"https:\/\/revistaidees.cat\/en\/analisis\/diari-de-les-idees\/diari-de-les-idees-58\/","title":{"rendered":"Diari de les idees 58"},"content":{"rendered":"\n

Despite the deadlock in the military situation, the war in Ukraine continues to attract attention, especially after the confirmation of war crimes committed by Russian troops evidenced by the bodies of murdered civilians and the mass graves discovered in the towns of Bucha, Borodyanka and Trostyanets, among others. Uncertainty is the dominant chord in a context where the withdrawal of Russian troops from the northern front may mean a regrouping of forces to carry out major attacks against the south and east of the country, with Odessa as the main target to isolate Ukraine from the Black Sea and ensure control of a corridor to the Donbass. However, Diari de les idees<\/em> also analyses other scenarios such as China’s concern about a possible Western coalition in the Indo-Pacific region, the ambiguous position of African countries regarding the Ukrainian conflict, the stagnation of Middle East democracy after the Arab Spring raised hopes, the elections in Hungary and Serbia \u2013two countries of great importance in a decisive region for European geopolitical order\u2013, the hazard of possible food shortages in the Middle East and Africa, or the EU\u2019s plans to face the new energy challenges.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

To begin with, the global geopolitical outlook, in the pages of the Washington Post<\/a><\/em> David Ignatius pays tribute to the recently departed Madeleine Albright, Bill Clinton’s former secretary of state, the first woman to hold this position and inspire a generation of foreign policy leaders. One of the most prominent features throughout her career as secretary of state and in the more than two following decades is that she always remained true to her values. For example, in her book Fascism: A Warning<\/em> (Harper, 2018), Albright warned that totalitarianism is not an abstraction but a very real and daily danger.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

This totalitarian danger leads Amaney A. Jamal and Michael Robbins to analyse in Foreign Affairs<\/a><\/em> why democracy has become stagnant in the Middle East. Despite the great possibilities for change started by the Arab Spring since 2011, the old order in the Middle East has returned, more repressive and authoritarian. It is even more serious the fact that they point out that, while in 2011 an overwhelming majority of Arab citizens considered democracy to be the best possible system, today little more than half of them hold this view. One of the reasons for this change may be that in that historical context, in addition to the struggle for political renewal, a big part of the protests was economically motivated. After the fall of the Algerian and Sudanese regimes, authoritarian regimes have learned to give more importance to the economic situation, while in a context of loss of influence of the US neoliberal model, the Russian and Chinese models have gained ground in the region. The authors compared two groups of countries, authoritarian countries (Morocco, Egypt and Jordan) and more democratic countries (Lebanon and Tunisia), and found out that the authoritarian countries performed better economically, and that citizen satisfaction towards economy was deeper. It seems, therefore, that the desire for a governance system that ensures economic dignity outweighs the claim of abstract notions of freedom and democracy.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

A disturbing situation which also involves Africa and  ‘s Jason Burke analyses in The Guardian<\/a><\/em> is why 17 African countries abstained from voting on the UN General Assembly resolution condemning the invasion of Ukraine. The 27 African countries that voted in favour are mostly democracies, while most of those that abstained or, like Eritrea, voted against the resolution, are authoritarian or hybrid regimes. This fact led some analysts to suggest the possibility of a new strategic split in Africa, similar to that of the Cold War. Indeed, many African countries are ruled by parties that received support from Moscow during their struggles for liberation from colonial rule. Ties with Russia are strengthened through investment in mining, financial loans and the sale of agricultural equipment or nuclear technology. A quite revealing detail is that Russia was the leading arms exporter in sub-Saharan Africa in 2016-2020.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

At the same time, Le Monde<\/a><\/em>‘s editorial shows concern about the drift of one of the key countries in the fight against jihadism in the Sahel. Certainly, Mali, which was one of the showcases for democratisation in West Africa after the end of a long dictatorship, began to break down in 2010, weakened by the corruption of the regime and a Tuareg rebellion allied with the Islamists. Only French military intervention at the request of Bamako prevented the country from falling into the jihadists hands. Now, the announcement of the suspension of broadcasts by French channels accused by the current council in power of wanting to destabilise the country means an advance of Russian influence in West Africa, as the military council justifies its decision by the precedent set by the European Union’s banning of Russian propaganda tools such as Russia Today and Sputnik. Thus, while Wagner’s Russian mercenaries defend the existing power in Bamako, the banning of Radio France Internationale and France 24 enables Moscow to fill the media vacancy.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

In the Financial Times<\/a><\/em>, Edward White and Tom Mitchell reveal the concerns of the Chinese authorities regarding the articulation of a hypothetical ‘Indo-Pacific NATO’ that could lead China to further disengage from the West. In this context, it is relevant to highlight that Wang Yi, the Chinese Foreign Minister, attended the opening ceremony of the 48th session of the Council of Foreign Ministers of the Organisation of Islamic Cooperation (OIC). It is made up of 57 states with a population of nearly two billion, where he endorsed $400 billion in aid for projects in 54 Islamic countries. This setting is different from the Bandung Conference of 1955, where the participants were poor countries in reconstruction that had just achieved independence, China is now the world’s second largest economy, and some of the countries that have come to seek its help in order to achieve stability are important regional players such as Algeria, Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, Turkey, Nigeria, Iran and Egypt.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Analysing China again, Reid Standish tells Radio Free Europe<\/a><\/em> about the shift in relations between Beijing and Moscow because of the invasion of Ukraine. Since the start of the war, China has taken an uncomfortable line of supporting Moscow’s invasion while trying to distance itself from the war scenario itself. However, after a month of war, the strength of the bonds between the two countries has been put to the test. Tough sanctions have paralysed Russia’s economy and left the Kremlin under unprecedented international pressure. Beijing has avoided showing political or economic support for Moscow, while at the same time providing diplomatic cover for its partner and its state media have promoted Russia’s narrative of invasion to domestic and foreign audiences. The reality is that China’s policy is dictated by Xi and he supports Putin, since allowing the failure of an autocrat could pose challenges to his own authority in China, while Xi also shares Putin’s commitment to making a safer world for authoritarianism and challenging US global leadership.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

In this context, Llu\u00eds Bassets argues in Pol\u00edtica&Prosa<\/a><\/em> magazine that the Kremlin’s project behind the invasion of Ukraine is a challenge to the world order as it has been organised since the demise of the Soviet Union, the “greatest geopolitical catastrophe of the 20th century” according to Putin. He now wants to retake the map drawn at the Yalta Conference, where Stalin, Roosevelt and Churchill divided Europe into areas of influence. At the same time, he also wants to redesign the international institutions shaped since 1945 to his own advantage, a task for which he has allied with China, the best-placed superpower to reap the economic and geopolitical benefits of the outcome of the war in Ukraine. Indeed, the severe sanctions imposed on Moscow and the alternatives sought by the Kremlin to replace payment systems, energy market customers and international alliances have begun to draw a map of the future, in which China has a preeminent place.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

In a long interview in La Vanguardia<\/a><\/em>, historian Philipp Blom states that we were convinced that we were living in a bright new era and that the struggle between ideologies was over because liberal and capitalist democracies had triumphed over communism. We thought that the liberation of markets would lead to the liberation of ideas and democracy. However, the illusion that has been shattered by the Russian invasion of Ukraine reveals that we need a new pattern, because when we gaze at the ruins of Ukraine we also gaze at the ruins of our own historical illusions, those truths that were so convenient and in which we had so much believed. We believed in a world where the market solved every mystery, whether political, social or health-related, a world without historical traumas which worked thanks to market mechanisms, a world where historical identities, with all their problems and contradictions, were reduced to the much more malleable identity of a commercial brand. Ukraine proves that this has not been the case.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

As for Spanish politics, Jos\u00e9 Antonio P\u00e9rez Tapias analyses inCTXT<\/a><\/em> magazine the change of stance of Pedro S\u00e1nchez’s government on the Western Sahara issue with the acceptance of Morocco’s 2007 plan for autonomy for the region. Overturning the policy that the Spanish state has developed for almost fifty years \u2013defending the need for a referendum on self-determination as the key established by UN resolutions to culminate a decolonisation process hindered by the Moroccan regime\u2013, the Spanish Prime Minister has sided with the position of Mohamed VI, who in a way manages to culminate the ‘Green March’ that his father, Hassan II, fostered to illegally occupy the territory. It is also important to bear in mind the justification given by the Prime Minister’s Office for this new position: it marks the beginning of a new stage in relations between Spain and Morocco. This has effects mainly on three issues: curbing Moroccan claims to Ceuta and Melilla, economic agreements and migration control.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

In Europe, Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has undoubtedly had a decisive influence on elections in two countries that are important for Europe’s geopolitical balance. In Serbia, the incumbent populist president, Aleksandar Vucic, has consolidated his power by winning the first round of the presidential election with approximately 60% of the votes. The impact of the Ukraine crisis on the results has been relevant, and Serbia has swung to the right with the entry of two ultranationalist formations into parliament. In Hungary, Viktor Orb\u00e1n, has won a fourth consecutive election victory with two-thirds of parliamentary majority and even increasing his share of the vote despite the fact that for the first time the opposition ran as a unitary bloc. In his victory speech, Orb\u00e1n once again charged against his archenemies: “The national left, the international left, the Brussels bureaucrats, George Soros, the international media and Ukraine’s president Volodymyr Zelensky”. Thus, it seems that voters have rewarded his ‘equidistance’ between the West and Russia.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

At a time of general uncertainty in the continent, Georges-Henri Soutou argues in Le Grand Continent<\/a><\/em> that the sequence opened by the invasion of Ukraine confirms the return of a brutal geopolitics between East and West, in which Europe will have to keep at all costs its autonomy of observation and interpretation in a context that cannot be considered a new Cold War. The Cold War was definitely still in the era of Universalist ideologies. Liberalism and communism were kind of enemy siblings. Before the triumph of totalitarianism theories \u2013which denied this relationship, emphasising instead the proximity between communism, fascism and Nazism\u2013, many actors and presenters, until the 60s, thought that for Russia the communism of the Soviet Union, compared to tsarism and the Byzantine cultural past, represented basically modernisation and a path, certainly a very particular one, towards the Western model. The “containment” suggested by George Kennan in 1946 was to give some time to this regime transformation by liberalising its economy and society. At the same time, the Cold War was geopolitical and not just ideological. Subsequently, the two superpowers extended a rivalry that was certainly ideological, but also political and strategic, to all continents. It was even economic, especially in terms of control over raw materials. Soutou argues that we are witnessing a new East-West ideological opposition, even if the terms are very different, since geopolitics now dominate, which was not the case before 1990. In any case, the EU has every interest in maintaining as much as possible its autonomy of observation and interpretation, its capacity for action (including financial), a minimum of energy security and its military skills. It also seeks to equip itself with the necessary means to make its voice heard in the Western set, which will most likely reconstitute itself against Russia and for a long time to come, irrespective of the short-term outcome of the Ukrainian crisis.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

A Ukrainian crisis that, as Christian Makarian argues in Slate<\/a><\/em> magazine, reveals a great ploy aimed at taking the lead in a vast de-globalisation plan in order to weaken North Americans and Europeans. To understand the origin and scope of this strategy one Putin’s narrative must be analysed based on three key concepts. The first one is showed in the revealing article “Putin’s Long State”, by the Kremlin’s first propagandist, Vladislav Surkov. The second is about “Russian messianism”, described in the work of the American historian Stephen Kotkin, an undeniable Stalin specialist. The third one is the Primakov Doctrine, created by Yevgeniy Primakov, Russia’s Foreign Minister from 1996 to 1998, who affirmed that Russia needed to continue to control its “close foreigner”. In the same vein, David Von Drehle points to another interpretation in an article published in the Washington Post<\/a><\/em>, where he highlights Alexander Dugin’s intellectual influence on the Russian president. Because of the Soviet Union’s period of decline, Dugin belongs to the group of political theorists who reinvent a powerful and glorious past, imbued with mysticism and obedient to authority, to explain a failed present. Before modernity ruined everything, a spiritually motivated Russian people promised to unite Europe and Asia in a great empire, ruled by Russian ethnicities. Unfortunately, an empire led by money-hungry corrupt individualists, led by the United States and Great Britain, hindered Russia’s fate and eventually subjugated Eurasia. In his best-known book, The Foundations of Geopolitics: The Geopolitical Future of Russia<\/em> (1997), Dugin laid out his plan in detail. Russian agents would have to foster racial, religious and class divisions in the United States while promoting isolationist groups in the United States. In Great Britain, the effort would have to focus on inflaming historical fractures with continental Europe and separatist movements in Scotland, Wales and Ireland. Meanwhile, Western Europe would become dependent on Russia because of the lure of natural resources: oil, gas and food. NATO would collapse from within. In some ways, Dugin’s book can be summed up in one idea: the wrong alliance won the World War II. If Hitler had not invaded Russia, Great Britain might have been defeated, the US would have stayed at home, isolationist and divided groups, and Japan would have ruled the former China as Russia’s junior partner.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

In the economic sphere, Reid Standish<\/a> analyses the economic impact of the war in Ukraine and one of its possible outcomes: a global food crisis. Russia and Ukraine account for approximately 30% of world wheat exports, while Russia is the world’s leading exporter of fertiliser and a significant amount of the world’s wheat, corn and barley is being held up in both countries because of the war, while an even larger share of fertiliser is stuck in Russia and Belarus. The simultaneous disruptions to crops and fertiliser production are driving food prices up and sending economic shock waves around the world. Since the 24th February invasion, world wheat prices have risen by about 21%, barley\u2019s price by 33% and some fertilisers by as much as 40%. After more than a month into the war, economists and aid agencies say the world faces a series of simultaneous crises that could cause a global food emergency. Food and fertiliser prices were already rising to record levels before the conflict because of shipping constraints, high-energy costs and natural disasters. Supply became even tighter in the first weeks of the war, with Moscow limiting wheat exports and urging its fertiliser producers to stop exports temporarily. Kiev also banned exports of wheat and other basic commodities. As the conflict continues and shows no signs of stopping, the Ukrainian war could be a watershed for a global hunger crisis.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Regarding the climate emergency, Genoveva L\u00f3pez argues in El Salto<\/a><\/em> magazine that although climate change entails huge economic losses, it has also become a huge business plenty of financial instruments that turn nature into a market good with which one can trade and speculate. This use of natural capital creates a system that promotes the defence of nature by giving it a market value. This means that taking care of climate change has to be profitable, which has serious consequences for the quality of our democracies. Some experts claim that capital, in the context of crisis, acts either by privatising or by using financialisation, that is to say, not investing in the real or productive economy, but in finances that allow for the realisation of important (fictitious) profits until the crisis arrives. An example of this are cat bonds, through which risk factors that cannot be traded, such as a natural catastrophe, are speculated with. Companies find a niche here because of social concern about climate change. They can call for more action without compromising their profits and doing what they have always done. Voluntary remediation procedures are less strict and controlled. There are offsetting mechanisms (e.g. a country or company reduces its greenhouse gas emissions to compensate for emissions made elsewhere); there are also ranking lists of activities considered sustainable in order to obtain economic incentives (EU Taxonomy Regulation). Somehow, there is a risk of creating a kind of market for biodiversity destruction where finance rather than nature is at the centre and an ecosystem can be destroyed if another of similar value replaces it.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

For his part, Alain Karsenty states in The Conversation<\/a><\/em> that, in a context of unprecedented population growth on the African continent, the means to preserve biodiversity are at the core of intense debate, especially within the framework of the Convention on Biological Diversity<\/a>, whose main proposal aims to classify 30% of national territories as protected areas, including 10% classified as strictly conservation. National parks are thus at the centre of the debate and two main questions are stirring conservationist circles in Africa: is it legitimate to restrict use rights for conservation reasons? What model of protected area, or alternative strategy for biodiversity preservation, can align efficiency with consideration of human and land rights? The overall situation is not encouraging, because most protected areas in Africa are underfunded as they get little tourism revenue and most suffer from poor management. In addition, revenue related to access rights have decreased significantly in recent years given the health crisis. Researchers estimate budget requirements of $103 to $178 billion to achieve the 30% target. However, protected areas alone cannot meet all the challenges posed by the biodiversity crisis. A remark on the whole territory of a country considering the connection among different activities is necessary to renew our view of nature and to redefine more effective biodiversity conservation strategies.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Furthermore, John Mueller states in Foreign Affairs<\/a><\/em> that despite pre-war fears, cyberattacks have turned out to be a relatively minor threat. The cause of this misjudgement is that most of the debate has focused on worst-case scenarios and has not considered the costs of cyberattacks having into account the enormous value of the Internet and Artificial Intelligence. Cyber technology seemingly enhances a state’s ability to carry out old-fashioned operations such as espionage, propaganda dissemination and sabotage. Analysts have even coined a new term, “hybrid warfare”. If hackers were to focus on digital espionage against the United States, for example, they would be likely to find that most of what they find is already known and much of the rest is irrelevant. Cyber sabotage achievements have also been quite modest. The US and Israel used a computer virus to hinder Iran’s progress towards developing a nuclear weapon, but the Iranian programme quickly recovered. In addition, the fear that terrorist groups might cause damage through cyberspace has existed for many years. So far, however, no terrorist group has managed to launch a successful cyberattack. Election interference also plays a significant role in the alarmist discourse about cyber threats. During the 2016 US Presidential Election, for example, the US highlighted attempts by Russian hackers to undermine Hillary Clinton’s campaign. Ultimately, most cyberattacks target the private sector, as they try to steal or extort money from companies and their customers.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Finally, and returning to a subject that has been put aside by the war in Ukraine, John Nkengasong, director of the Africa Centres for Disease Control and Prevention, asserts in the New York Times<\/a><\/em> that while for many countries it looks like 2022 will be the year when the emergency phase of the pandemic will end, there is still a lot of work to be done before this optimism is shared by the whole world. Indeed, only 15% of the population in Africa has been fully vaccinated and with vaccination rates so low, there is a risk that new variants will emerge. South African President Cyril Ramaphosa presented a comprehensive report at the African Union summit of Heads of State and Government, which commits governments to achieving over 70% vaccination rates for their countries by the end of 2022, but so far only about 14 of the AU’s 55 member states have vaccinated more than 40% of their population. For vaccination campaigns to be successful, vaccine donations need to be closely coordinated with COVAX initiatives and the African Vaccine Acquisition Task Team (AVATT). Mass shipment of doses without adequate infrastructure or coordination to distribute them could result in vaccines expiring. Avoiding this will require countries to decentralise vaccination centres, by either using mobile vaccination units, involving religious organisations, allowing weekend vaccination or encouraging young people to get vaccinated. Another goal is to increase the availability of rapid antigen tests and equitable access to drugs for COVID-19 treatment. Finally, the pandemic has also worsen mental health, stress, economic uncertainty and social isolation. These conditions have led to an increase in domestic violence and the abuse of alcohol and psychotropic substances.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Illustration: \u201cLady Refugee\u201d, Grenoble Street Art Fest, Grenoble, 2017<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Ra\u00fcl Gil, Eva Lam, Raquel Garc\u00eda and Pilar Querol, trainees at the CETC, have contributed to this issue 58 of Diari de les idees<\/em><\/strong><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Despite the deadlock in the military situation, the war in Ukraine continues to attract attention, especially after the confirmation of war crimes committed by Russian troops evidenced by the bodies of murdered civilians and the mass graves discovered in the towns of Bucha, Borodyanka and Trostyanets, among others. Uncertainty is the dominant chord in a context where the withdrawal of Russian troops from the northern front may mean a regrouping of forces to carry out major attacks against the south and east of the country, with Odessa as the main target to isolate Ukraine from the Black Sea and ensure\u2026<\/p>\n","protected":false},"featured_media":56510,"template":"","category_newspaper":[454],"segment":[],"subject":[],"class_list":["post-56541","newspaper","type-newspaper","status-publish","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category_newspaper-454"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"\nDiari de les idees 58 – IDEES<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/revistaidees.cat\/en\/analisis\/diari-de-les-idees\/diari-de-les-idees-58\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Diari de les idees 58 – IDEES\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"Despite the deadlock in the military situation, the war in Ukraine continues to attract attention, especially after the confirmation of war crimes committed by Russian troops evidenced by the bodies of murdered civilians and the mass graves discovered in the towns of Bucha, Borodyanka and Trostyanets, among others. 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