{"id":56715,"date":"2022-04-21T06:25:21","date_gmt":"2022-04-21T06:25:21","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/revistaidees.cat\/analisis\/diari-de-les-idees\/diari-de-les-idees-59\/"},"modified":"2022-04-28T08:15:29","modified_gmt":"2022-04-28T08:15:29","slug":"diari-de-les-idees-59","status":"publish","type":"newspaper","link":"https:\/\/revistaidees.cat\/en\/analisis\/diari-de-les-idees\/diari-de-les-idees-59\/","title":{"rendered":"Diari de les idees 59"},"content":{"rendered":"\n

Almost two months after the invasion of Ukraine, everything indicates that the war is entering a new phase with a large-scale offensive concentrated in the east and south of the country. As could not be otherwise, Diari de les idees<\/em> continues to devote special attention to the conflict and its political, economic and social repercussions. Beyond the reordering of the international geopolitical order, the impact on the future of NATO, China’s position in the conflict (always with the threat hanging over Taiwan on the horizon) or the ambivalent role of Turkey, we also highlight the internal dangers of destabilisation in Europe posed by Viktor Orb\u00e1n’s autocratic regime or a second round of the French presidential elections in which outgoing President Emmanuel Macron could secure a very narrow victory over the far-right candidate Marine Le Pen. All this is without losing sight of one of the regions that may experience the next crisis on the EU’s eastern border: the Balkans.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Turning to global affairs, Paul Taylor analyses in Politico<\/em><\/a> magazine the impact of the war in Ukraine on NATO’s structures and policy. Since the fall of the Berlin Wall, NATO\u2019s main priorities have been peace-building, civilian operations and training, and crisis and escalation control, for example in Libya or Iraq. Although the defence of Ukraine has been successful in part thanks to the use of light Javelin anti-tank weapons and Stinger anti-aircraft missiles supplied by the Alliance countries, the threat of possible Russian operations has put Europe, especially the three Baltic republics, Moldova, Sweden and Finland, on full alert. Paul Mason tells Social Europe<\/em><\/a> that NATO’s strategic concept, a 12-year-old guidance document, will need to be deeply revised. The design of this new concept will depend on the evolution and final outcome of the war, whose realistic scenarios range from a defeat of Russian forces resulting in a frozen conflict in the Donbass and armed neutrality in Ukraine to the partition of the country, with massacres and forced population movements to the Russian-controlled zone. In this context, European strategic autonomy is also seen as necessary for the EU to find its own centre of gravity, in terms of security, vis-\u00e0-vis Russia and the rest of the world. It is possible that Sweden and Finland will apply to join the Alliance in the coming weeks or months. With the new membership of two welfare economies currently under social democratic leadership and the renewed activism of the Social Democrat-led German government, NATO’s political centre of gravity in Europe could shift.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

In Conflits<\/em><\/a> magazine, Xavier Guilhou argues that the war in Ukraine shows the acceleration of the deconstruction of the world. To the old confrontation between the United States and Russia, an economic war and an energy war are to be added, and new actors such as China, Iran and Turkey are carrying more weight in the international scene. Take, for example, the case of negotiations to achieve a ceasefire or even to initiate a peace process between the Ukrainians and Russians. These are not taking place under the protection of the United Nations in Geneva, but in the Eastern Mediterranean in Antalya and at the Dolmabah\u00e7e Palace in Istanbul under the Turkish presidency. Certainly, Turkey is a member of NATO, but bringing together the leading actors of this war without the Americans and Europeans says a lot about how the world is changing. In this context, the discreet role of Israel and its networks of influence, starting with the Russian and Ukrainian oligarchs, cannot be ignored from the beginning of the events with its indirect consequences in the Iranian dossier. The same goes for China, which has considerable interests in the entire Eurasian space, in particular to consolidate its Silk Road strategy. It is also worth noting the rather cautious position of a large part of the world in the face of this conflict, since for the first time the North Americans have not been able to obtain full support as in the past, especially in the fight against terrorism.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Thus, from the pages of Foreign Policy<\/em><\/a>, Colum Lynch points out that if the West has supported the Ukrainian cause, the same cannot be said \u2013 far from it\u2013  of the rest of the world. Apart from the US’s closest friends and military allies in West and East Asia, most countries in the world are not interested in joining the campaign to isolate Russia. Many countries have historical ties with Russia that they are unwilling to break, and fear that participating in the economic blockade of Moscow will have dramatic consequences for their populations in the form of food and fuel shortages or rising prices that could lead to food crises and growing instability within their own borders. Others still harbour deep resentment towards the US, whose military interventions from Afghanistan to Iraq and Libya have left a legacy of destruction and social, political and economic crises. Thus, no African country has imposed sanctions on Russia, which in recent years has become the world’s largest arm exporter to the continent. Nowhere has ambivalence been more distinct than in the Middle East, where key US strategic allies \u2013Israel, the United Arab Emirates and Saudi Arabia\u2013 have rejected US demands to isolate Russia and join Washington in imposing sanctions on the Russian president. The position of Israel, Saudi Arabia and the UAE reveals the extent to which Washington has lost its confidence and its allies are willing to risk eroding their special relationship with the US in order to protect what they have developed in terms of strategic diversification, including rapprochement with Russia and China. Consequently, a world that is largely adapting to a new multipolar era is taking shape, where the United States is no longer the only superpower. For additional information, we recommend two very insightful maps published in Le Grand Continent: one on countries’ reactions<\/a> to the invasion and other on their position<\/a> regarding the UN vote condemning the aggression.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

In this redefinition of the international geopolitical order, China will be one of the main actors and a leading candidate for global hegemony. Foreign Policy<\/em><\/a> devotes a dossier to the issue in which it is pointed out that, despite the war in Ukraine, major changes in Chinese policy are unlikely because they would not be useful for the regime. On the one hand, abandoning Russia would not solve China’s main problem, namely its relationship with the US. On the other hand, Xi Jinping and Putin recently committed themselves to cooperation. It is in China’s interest to maintain relations with both Russia and the West; and a war- and sanctions-weakened, economically dependent and resource-rich Russia is also in China’s interest. China is currently only helping Russia from the sidelines, but has the means to do more if the situation changes. In the same vein, Yun Sun and Paul Heer analyse in SupChina<\/a><\/em> what the consequences of war might be for China. China’s perception of the conflict is not based on moral calculation but on the interests derived from this war, given that Russia has become a destabilised country that has lost political instruments to fulfil its foreign policy agenda and this could rebound on Beijing. China is thus pursuing a strategy of rapprochement with Europe in order to strengthen its own position and political agenda, as Beijing sees Europe as a large market with significant economic potential favourable to Chinese interests.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

In an extensive dossier published in La Vanguardia<\/em><\/a>, Didier Billion, deputy director of the Institute for International and Strategic Relations (IRIS), analyses the strategy of another country that is acting carefully to increase its influence: Turkey. He argues that, although tactical changes cannot be ruled out, it seems clear that for Erdogan, Moscow’s policy in the region is less destabilising to his interests than Washington’s. Turkey’s foreign policy developments are part, on the one hand, of a long search for identity that has been noticeable for five decades and, on the other, of a more recent willingness to take into account the new paradigms that tend to structure international relations. The values that the Western powers continue to consider confusedly as universal no longer manage to impose themselves militarily, politically or culturally. Despite their differences, the so-called emerging powers are asserting themselves on the world scene and disrupting the old balance. Turkey is an example of this change in the world, which often leads president Erdogan to express his rejection of an international order governed by the five powers of the United Nations Security Council. In this context, Turkey’s stated desire is to redefine its relations with the outside world without breaking with the country’s traditional system of alliances. It is Turkey’s ability to find itself at the confluence of divergent or opposing interests that constitutes its strength and underpins its potential attractiveness.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The spying on politicians, pro-independence leaders and members of civil society by the Spanish government, both under the presidency of Mariano Rajoy and Pedro S\u00e1nchez, revealed in the article published by Ronan Farrow in The New Yorker<\/em><\/a>, is particularly relevant to Catalonia. The operation was carried out using the Pegasus spyware developed by the Israeli company NSO, which is only sold to governments. It has already been linked to hundreds of cases of abuse, some perpetrated by authoritarian regimes such as Saudi Arabia but also by democratic countries such as India and EU member states such as Poland and Hungary. In the Spanish case, although the use of illegal tools and strategies to try to destroy the enemy is nothing new (remember the phrase “The state also defends itself in the sewers” in the time of the GAL paramilitary groups), the importance is not minimised. According to the data provided by the investigation carried out by Citizen Lab<\/em><\/a>, there is a wide range of connections that lead to one or more Spanish government bodies being responsible for this large-scale espionage. Moreover, according to sources close to the Spanish secret service, the CNI (National Intelligence Centre) has admitted to the acquisition of the software in the middle of the last decade to spy abroad, where spies have to operate outside the law. However, if the reason to buy Pegasus was to spy abroad, why did it end up on the devices of Catalan independence supporters? The origin of the money used to acquire this spyware is also disturbing, as Josep Casulleras reveals in Vilaweb<\/em><\/a>. Indeed, although NSO does not disclose the price of the service to its clients, data on payments in some countries where Pegasus has also been used has been spread, showing the enormous expenses behind it, which surely far exceeds the money allocated to reserved funds in the Spanish budget. Indeed, by way of example, the Mexican government paid around 280 million euros between 2012 and 2018 to the Israeli company. The question is where all this money came from, since the Spanish government’s budget for reserved funds is 27 million euros per year, an amount far below what the spying on Catalan independence could have cost, if we compare this case to the Mexican case. The Mexican case points to one possibility: the diversion of public funds in a series of inflated budget items. There could be more, but there would need to be a thorough investigation to determine this. The question now is whether the Spanish state will do so.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Turning to European affairs, the editorial in Le Monde<\/em><\/a> warns that without the rule of law there is no Europe and considers the victories of Viktor Orb\u00e1n in Hungary and Aleksandar Vu\u010di\u0107 in Serbia as red flags. Yasmeen Serhan also points out in The Atlantic<\/em><\/a> that the European Union is finally realising that the presence of autocrats in its ranks poses as great a danger as Putin. Thus, the EU has announced that it would implement for the first time a decision to withhold funds from countries that fail to meet democratic standards, a measure that could cost Budapest tens of billions of euros. Such funding cuts would have a huge impact for Hungary, which is one of the largest per capita recipients of EU funding, and for Orb\u00e1n, as the he has been growing richer for more than a decade at the expense of EU funds through transfers from the companies of his childhood friend L\u0151rinc M\u00e9sz\u00e1ros, as Szabolcs Panyi tells Euractiv<\/em><\/a> in an article. Faced with rising inflation and an energy crisis triggered by the war in Ukraine, he cannot afford to lose any financial support right now.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The results of the first round of elections in France are another source of concern. Despite an apparent repetition of the previous round, there have been very significant changes that predict even a more uncertain second round than five years ago. Thus, Mathias Bernard points out in The Conversation<\/em><\/a> that the restructuring of the French political scene around three major poles is happening. A liberal, centrist and European pole that unites just over a quarter of voters but which, thanks to the mechanism of majority voting, has so far managed to dominate political life. A populist and identitarian pole, led by Marine Le Pen, which together with other right-wing populist candidates, accounts for around 33%. Finally, a radical left pole dominated by La France insoumise<\/em>, which, if the results of the communist and Trotskyist candidates are included, gathers around 25% of the votes. This tri-polarisation implies the marginalisation of the two political forces that, since the 1970s, had structured French political life. With less than 2% of the votes, the Socialist Party confirms a decline that might have seemed relevant in 2017 but is now an undeniable reality. The decline of the traditional right is another notable fact, as the candidate of Les R\u00e9publicains<\/em> party has divided by four the percentage obtained five years ago.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

We cannot overlook the fact that there is one region that may experience the next major crisis on the EU’s eastern border: the Balkans. Alix Kroeger argues in The New Statesman<\/em><\/a> that what is happening now in Ukraine reminds of another war that took place in Europe and points out that it was only after NATO’s intervention that peace negotiations began. Thirty years later peace remains fragile in Bosnia and the same thing could happen in Ukraine after the Russian invasion. In the same vein, an article published in the Portuguese newspaper P\u00fablico<\/em><\/a> by MEPs from the Social Democrat group recalls the importance of the enlargement process as an engine for democracy, freedom, peace, the rule of law and prosperity. They believe that the EU must quickly start accession talks with Skopje and Tirana. In order to play a stronger political role in Bosnia and Herzegovina, Europe needs to regain its credibility, which has been decreasing in recent years in the Western Balkans. One of the reasons is Europe’s inaction or, even worse, broken promises. When Athens and Skopje signed the historic Prespa Agreement four years ago to solve the issue about the name of North Macedonia, an opportunity opened up to start bringing the Western Balkans into the Union. Nevertheless, the EU has not yet begun accession talks with either North Macedonia or Albania, although it has been said that both countries have done all that was required of them to start accession procedures. The future of the Western Balkans lies in the European Union, the rule of law, liberal democracy, social justice and the innovative determination of an open society. EU membership offers the guarantee that the citizens of the six Balkan nations can enjoy these benefits.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

David Brooks in The New Tork Times<\/em><\/a> links certain dangers for democracy to the end of globalisation as we have known it until now and the beginning of the culture wars. In the 1990s, British sociologist Anthony Giddens argued that globalisation was about the integration of worldviews, products, ideas and culture. Now, the world is no longer converging, but diverging. The process of globalisation has slowed down and, in some cases, even reversed. Russia’s invasion of Ukraine highlights these trends. The Economist<\/em><\/a> <\/em> reports that between 2008 and 2019, world trade, relative to global GDP, fell by about five percentage points. Immigration flows have slowed down. Global long-term investment flows halved between 2016 and 2019. The causes of this deglobalisation are many and deep. The 2008 financial crisis delegitimised global capitalism for many people. China has apparently shown that mercantilism can be an effective economic strategy. All sorts of anti-globalisation movements have emerged: Brexiteers, xenophobic nationalists, populists, Trumpists, the anti-globalisation left, and so on. Hundreds of companies have now left Russia as the West partially disengages from Putin’s war machinery. Many Western companies are rethinking their operations in China as the regime becomes more hostile to the West and supply chains are threatened by political uncertainty. As John Micklethwait and Adrian Wooldridge wrote in an essay<\/a>, geopolitics is definitely moving against globalisation towards a world dominated by two or three major trading blocs. It is clear that globalisation as trade flows will continue, but globalisation as the driving logic of world affairs seems to be over. Economic rivalries have now converged with political, moral and other rivalries in a single global competition for hegemony. Globalisation has been replaced by something that closely resembles a global culture war. Indeed, global politics over the last decades has functioned as a massive social inequality machine and large sections of the population feel despised and ignored. In addition, most people feel strongly loyal to their place of origin and feel that their nations are threatened when, in the moment of glory of globalisation, multilateral organisations and global corporations seemed to be eclipsing nation-states. People are also very attached to their own cultural values, due to their desire to defend their values when they appear to be under attack. After the Cold War, Western values have dominated the world through films, music, political debates and social networks. One theory of globalisation was that world culture would basically converge around these liberal values. The problem is that Western values are not the world’s values.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

On the economic field, Adam Tooze writes in Foreign Policy<\/em><\/a> that in the space of a few weeks the war in Ukraine has changed the global scene. Both sides, of course, endure the worst part; the Ukrainian economy has shrunk by 16 per cent in the first quarter and Russia has been virtually cut off from the global financing system. There is currently no market for roubles or Russian financial assets, the withdrawal of Western companies from Russia has meant the country’s economic decline, and long-term development prospects are dire. Europe will have to cope with large numbers of refugees, as well as severe energy price instability. Brussels is committed to reducing its dependence on Russian oil and gas, and in the medium term, the crisis can be beneficial, accelerating the energy shift away from fossil fuels. However, replacing one supply chain requires another, and Europe will need to purchase hard-to-access electronic materials, microchips and batteries. If anything has been learned from the COVID-19 pandemic, it is that the West and rich countries can increase public spending to try to mitigate external shocks to an increasingly interdependent economy, but rising debt remains a major danger for less developed countries. The World Bank is already warning several countries about debt risk, and twelve countries may not be able to meet their debt repayments by the end of the year. Particular attention should be paid to Sri Lanka<\/a>, where the economic situation is at a critical point of no return, with major power cuts and much political instability.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

At the same time, Paola Tamma points out in Politico<\/em><\/a> magazine that the war in Ukraine has forced Europe to seek energy independence from Russia and inflation is also a challenge that has forced an increase in production costs and a redistribution of subsidies. The goals of European countries are to increase their strategic autonomy, reduce the use of fossil fuels and accelerate the transition to renewable energy, and in order to achieve these goals and respond to the current crisis, the European Pandemic Recovery Fund will be used, as the Nordic countries are reluctant to take on new joint debt. The advantage is that the fund’s rules already required 37 per cent of each country’s allocation to be earmarked for ecological transition, a key objective that the war has made more urgent. Still, the question is how far existing resources will stretch. Some countries will borrow more, and those unable to do so because they have already borrowed in full may ask for their plan to be rewritten to accommodate new priorities and to take account of inflation. The deficit will have to be financed by European loans or funds and countries will have to go through a new process of approving their proposals and negotiating them with the European Commission.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The war also has an impact on sustainability and, in the pages of The Guardian<\/em><\/a>, Bill McKibben analyses the relationship between the fight against climate change and political regimes. We are in a situation that calls for strong action on climate change, but with systems that fail to meet these transformative demands. In Brazil, Jair Bolsonaro mocks climate demands and keeps on deforesting the Amazon. In India, Modhi denies a visa to environmental activist Greta Thunberg. In Russia or China, climate protests are just a utopia. In the United States, green restructuring is impossible given that the government’s inability to consolidate agreements between Democrats and Republicans. On the other hand, autocracies are a direct result of fossil fuels; oil and gas reserves are concentrated in specific parts of the world; and regimes that have access to them end up gaining excessive power. Hydrocarbons by their very extractive nature (specific and geographically defined points) tend in many cases to be the base for despotism, since whoever materially controls the source controls the entire network and the benefits that derive from it. Renewable energies, on the other hand (e.g. wind and solar), are diffuse in geographical space and available everywhere. The war in Ukraine has highlighted the link between the fossil fuel sector and autocracy, i.e. the power that energy scarcity gives to authoritarian leaders. It has also demonstrated the ability of financial powers to pressure political regimes.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Despite being set aside by the war, the growing impact of climate change is of particular concern to one of the regions that is most prone to severe climate change-induced devastation: the Middle East. Marwa Daoudy warns in Foreign Affairs<\/em><\/a> that floods, fires and major droughts have caused serious economic and humanitarian problems that the governments of the main affected countries have failed to address. Many actors use the climate situation to their advantage, exploiting ecological vulnerability: bombing of essential infrastructure or cutting off water supplies are common strategies in Middle Eastern conflicts. Interventions such as those of Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates in the war in Yemen, blocking the country’s two main ports, can have devastating effects that make it difficult for local authorities to manage environmental threats. The great economic inequality between rich and poor countries in the region is also one of the main reasons of mass migration. While Gulf monarchies such as Qatar and Saudi Arabia have the technological capabilities to lower their emissions and protect their people from the effects of climate change, countries such as Libya and Syria, with lower incomes, are unable to cope with the extreme effects of droughts or plagues, leading to large migratory movements to richer countries.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Finally, Matthew Hutson analyses in The New Yorker<\/em><\/a> the relationship between the human brain and Artificial Intelligence and argues that for certain types of tasks AI can outperform human thinking (playing chess or detecting tumours), but that for general everyday problems where there are thousands of unexpected possibilities, AI is no longer as effective. On certain issues, the human mind can rely on common sense to solve some situations, but AI, programmed with pre-established rules, is often unable to find solutions. Robotics research institutes are working to bring common sense to artificial intelligences and give them human interpretability. The Allen Institute in Seattle is working on a four-year project entitled “Robotic Common Sense”. If these computer scientists could add common sense to AI, many problems could be solved. A language translation software could solve ambiguities and double meanings, just as a household cleaning robot could understand that a cat does not have to be thrown in a bin or put in a drawer. These systems could work well in our world because they would adopt knowledge that we take for granted. Humans learn common sense through a multifactorial approach where we observe the results of our actions, read books, listen to instructions and reason autonomously. However, artificial intelligences act along a chosen path that excludes others. These AIs can use systems that analyse writing and human culture to learn, but much of this common sense is not oral, and the written part is only a fragment of this knowledge. Computers may not be able to understand common sense until they have a brain and a body and are treated like us. If this could be achieved, robots could develop better common sense than we do, since humans often fail: we look at our mobile phones while driving, we sometimes offend people around us and we procrastinate.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Illustration: \u201cLa M\u00e9moire\u201d (1948), Ren\u00e9 Magritte<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Ra\u00fcl Gil, Pilar Querol and H\u00e8ctor G\u00e1mez, trainees at the CETC, have contributed to this issue 59 of Diari de les Idees<\/em><\/strong><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Almost two months after the invasion of Ukraine, everything indicates that the war is entering a new phase with a large-scale offensive concentrated in the east and south of the country. As could not be otherwise, Diari de les idees continues to devote special attention to the conflict and its political, economic and social repercussions. Beyond the reordering of the international geopolitical order, the impact on the future of NATO, China’s position in the conflict (always with the threat hanging over Taiwan on the horizon) or the ambivalent role of Turkey, we also highlight the internal dangers of destabilisation in\u2026<\/p>\n","protected":false},"featured_media":56534,"template":"","category_newspaper":[454],"segment":[],"subject":[],"class_list":["post-56715","newspaper","type-newspaper","status-publish","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category_newspaper-454"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"\nDiari de les idees 59 – IDEES<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/revistaidees.cat\/en\/analisis\/diari-de-les-idees\/diari-de-les-idees-59\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Diari de les idees 59 – IDEES\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"Almost two months after the invasion of Ukraine, everything indicates that the war is entering a new phase with a large-scale offensive concentrated in the east and south of the country. As could not be otherwise, Diari de les idees continues to devote special attention to the conflict and its political, economic and social repercussions. 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