{"id":57304,"date":"2022-05-05T04:57:45","date_gmt":"2022-05-05T04:57:45","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/revistaidees.cat\/analisis\/diari-de-les-idees\/diari-de-les-idees-60\/"},"modified":"2022-05-20T10:38:59","modified_gmt":"2022-05-20T10:38:59","slug":"diari-de-les-idees-60","status":"publish","type":"newspaper","link":"https:\/\/revistaidees.cat\/en\/analisis\/diari-de-les-idees\/diari-de-les-idees-60\/","title":{"rendered":"Diari de les idees 60"},"content":{"rendered":"\n

This new edition of Diari de les Idees<\/em> is issued at a time when the war in Ukraine seems to have settled, with a growing risk of escalation to adjacent territories and the involvement of more actors. This is the scary conclusion after the declarations of the Deputy Commander of the Russian Central Military, Major-General Rustam Minnekayev, announcing that the objective of the second phase of the war is to occupy the whole of Donbas, in the east, and the south of the country until it connects with Transnistria, a region of Moldova controlled by pro-Russian separatists. In addition, the Russian president has just signed a decree on retaliatory economic sanctions to Western countries that prohibits the export of products and raw materials to the people and companies targeted by the sanctions. This comes on top of other measures such as the ban on grain exports since mid-March to protect the Russian domestic market and prevent shortages and price increases; the interruption of gas supplies to Poland and Bulgaria and the imposition of payment in roubles, according to which European companies have to channel payments through a double account at Gazprombank \u2013 one in euros and a second in roubles. We also devote special attention to several electoral processes of particular relevance in Europe, such as the second round of the presidential elections in France, with the re-election of Emmanuel Macron; the victory of the liberal ecologist movement in Slovenia against the outgoing Prime Minister; or the elections of the Northern Ireland Assembly, whose outcome might be, for the first time, a victory for the Sinn F\u00e9in nationalists.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

As for the war in Ukraine, Max Seddon notes in the Financial Times<\/a><\/em> that, despite Russia’s failure to destroy Ukraine’s defences and the significant number of casualties to its ranks, the Kremlin still claims that the conflict will continue until Vladimir Putin’s stated objectives are fully achieved. This means that the Russian president is prepared for an extended war that goes far beyond the recently proclaimed goal of “liberating” Donbas. The idea is to occupy the entire south-east of Ukraine in order to cut off the country’s access to the Black Sea and consolidate bases for future attacks. However, due to the big number of human casualties in the first two months of the war, Russia needs a significant increase in troops to achieve this, which means more conscripts, calling reservists and mobilising volunteers. This could end up having a negative impact on Russian public opinion because it would mean admitting that a full-scale war is being waged and not just a “special operation”. Thus, Stefan Wolff and Tatyana Malyarenko warn in The Conversation<\/a><\/em> that the situation is at great risk of escalation as the increased tension in Transnistria shows. An escalation that would be aimed at fulfilling Putin’s foreign policy dream of regaining the territorial control of Soviet times. It is no coincidence that in recent years the Russian leader has promoted and supported supposedly independent republics such as Abkhazia, South Ossetia or Transnistria itself. Indeed, by recognising them, Russia has managed to increase its sphere of influence while securing control over strategic areas.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The war in Ukraine is also a disturbance to two of the main multilateral organisations: the UN and NATO. Commenting on the controversial handling of the crisis by UN Secretary-General Ant\u00f3nio Guterrres, Doll Bailly argues in Slate<\/a><\/em> magazine that the role of the organisation in wartime is still often misunderstood. Thus, the UN’s action in the Ukrainian war is limited for historical, ideological and logistical reasons. The UN’s main objective is to maintain international peace and security through a number of bodies, and with regard to the war in Ukraine, the General Assembly has called for an immediate cessation of fighting and has opened an investigation of war crimes and crimes against humanity. Humanitarian missions and fundraising campaigns have also been launched. In some past conflicts, the UN Security Council has issued mandates to launch peacekeeping operations (PKO) aimed at creating conditions to maintain or restore peace in conflict zones. Since the creation of PKO, their actions have been based on three principles: impartiality, the consent of the states involved in the conflict and the use of force only in self-defence. In the case of the war in Ukraine, the conditions for organising a PKO are not met, given that one of the contenders \u2013R\u00fassia\u2013 would not accept the deployment of blue helmets and, would also exercise its right of veto in the Security Council.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

As for the Atlantic Alliance, Carl Bildt points out in Foreign Affairs<\/a><\/em> that the invasion of Ukraine has put national security policy at the centre of the political agenda in Finland and Sweden. In response to Russian aggression, the two countries are now looking for the most realistic option to defend themselves against the new threat posed by events in Ukraine. In 1995, Finnish and Swedish accession to the European Union seemed to bring NATO closer to the Nordic countries, but in the end the step was not taken and both Sweden and Finland pinned their hopes on developing a constructive security relationship with a reformed and democratic Russia. Nevertheless, the 2008 invasion of Georgia, the 2014 annexation of Crimea and now the invasion of Ukraine have shattered the existing international security model. Consequently, breaking with their historical policy of neutrality, both states have even sent military equipment to Kyiv, including anti-tank missiles. With a view to the NATO summit in Madrid at the end of June, the Atlantic Alliance will have to consider Finland and Sweden’s requests for rapid accession as a way to strengthen the stability of the Baltic and the whole of Northern Europe.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Regarding international politics, it is relevant the UK government’s decision in mid-April to send asylum seekers in the UK to Rwanda, where there is a dictatorial regime known for its human rights abuses. In return, Kagame’s government will receive a payment of 120 million pounds for an economic development programme. Under the deal, people seeking asylum in the UK will be transferred to Rwanda, where their cases will be processed. If granted asylum, they will be encouraged to remain in Rwanda for at least five years. Furthermore, it is unclear how asylum seekers transferred from the UK will be housed in Rwanda, beyond temporary plans to convert a former hostel into a detention centre. It has not been said what will happen to those who do not get asylum. On this issue, James Bloodworth argues in The New Statesman<\/a><\/em> that it is a sense of guilt that has led the West to turn a blind eye to human rights abuses in Rwanda and Paul Kagame has cleverly used this sense of guilt to keep himself in good stead with the West for more than two decades. This guilt is a legacy of Western inaction during the 1994 genocide, in which the Hutu majority massacred 800,000 Tutsis.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Meanwhile, following the resignation of Pakistan’s Prime Minister Imran Khanes, Abdul Basit points out in Foreign Policy<\/a><\/u><\/em> that since independence, none of Pakistan’s 23 prime ministers have managed to complete their term in office. Although the last military regime fell in 2008, Pakistan cannot be considered a full democracy, but rather a hybrid in which the military installs a civilian leader favourable to its interests, which has allowed them to accumulate even more power over the last decade. Thus, all prime ministers who have attempted to pursue policies that are independent of the military have been removed from power. After coming into power in 2018, Khan’s government ruled arbitrarily and often legislated with ordinances, without having to discuss them in parliament. He also created internal divisions in his party, the PTI, by appointing technocrats close to the military that had brought him to power rather than candidates close to them for some leading positions. In Pakistan’s current context, changing the government will not necessarily reduce the political chaos or solve the country’s structural problems. This is why a new social contract that addresses injustices and inequalities would need to be constructed in the coming years.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

As for Catalonia and Spain, there has been a plot twist regarding the scandal of the espionage to the Catalan independence supporters with the announcement of the Spanish government that Pedro S\u00e1nchez and Margarita Robles had also been spied with Pegasus, according to an investigation of the Spanish Cryptologic Center (CCN), dependent organism of the Spanish Intelligence Centre (CNI). Some, like Vicent Partal states in Vilaweb<\/a><\/em>, consider the credibility of the announcement more than doubtful, not only for reasons of political expediency, but also for obvious technical reasons. So far, the CCN had not discovered any Pegasus infections and it is well known that these detections are far from simple and usually require processes that take months, if not years. So, as Citizen Lab\u2019s<\/a><\/em> principal investigator John Scott-Railton says, this is remarkably well-timed news. The same researcher raises a number of questions that need to be answered to ensure the transparency of Spanish government institutions. Why is it announced just now that the prime minister and the minister of defence had been spied on? The second question is procedural because very specific details have been given about the information thefts, but without specifying how they occurred. Scott-Railton also asks what technical analysis supports the findings of the CCN and suggests that the moment when the infections were discovered should be known, since even now the question remains whether the spying had been known for months and has now been made public in order to divert attention from the so-called Catalangate<\/em> affair.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

At the European level, the Northern Ireland assembly elections stand out where most polls<\/a> indicate that, for the first time, Sinn F\u00e9in could be the most voted party and, therefore, win the office of Prime Minister for the first time. In all likelihood, a Unionist would then be appointed as Deputy Prime Minister. Even so, no Unionist party has committed itself to the post in this scenario, leading to the prospect of many months of arguments before a government is actually formed. The other issue in this election is the increase in votes for parties labelled as”other” (the 90 Assembly members have to identify themselves as “Unionist”, in favour of union with the UK; “Nationalist”, in favour of unity with Ireland, or “other”) which draw their support mainly from younger segments of the population who have not known the time of the Troubles<\/em>, the period of civil conflict that lasted three decades and resulted in more than 3,600 deaths. Many young people therefore vote for the cross-community Alliance Party or other smaller parties (such as the Green Party) which reject the whole notion of “identification” (unionist or nationalist), arguing that Northern Ireland needs to be governed as a united but diverse community. In this context, Lisa O’Carroll argues in The Guardian<\/a><\/em> that one of the main questions is whether a Sinn F\u00e9in\u2019s victory would mean that a more united Ireland. Although this is the narrative promoted by some unionist parties to scare voters into supporting them at the polls, it is unclear that a referendum to change the current status quo is in sight. On the other hand, a Sinn F\u00e9in victory would be an important wake-up call for Unionism, as research over the last decade reveals the growth of secular Unionism among people of Protestant and Catholic heritage who want to stay in the UK but will not use their vote just to contain those on the other side.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

In the European context, the re-election of Emmanuel Macron is also relevant, and Mathias Bernard analyses the results of the second round of the presidential election in France in The Conversation<\/a><\/em>. This success seems to validate the strategy that Macron began in 2017 and which aimed to make him appear as the champion of the progressives, i.e. the European liberals of right and centre, against the nationalist populists gathered around Marine Le Pen. This strategy, however, has only partially worked. In fact, the current French political landscape is structured around three \u2013and not two\u2013 poles. The results of the second round seem to indicate that left-wing voters did not behave mechanically and uniformly. A significant part voted for Marine Le Pen, especially in rural areas, where Le Pen has now the majority of votes, as well as in the overseas territories where the candidate of the Rassemblement National got most of those who had voted in the first round for Jean-Luc M\u00e9lenchon. A more significant part of her electorate voted for Emmanuel Macron, especially in the big cities where M\u00e9lenchon’s voters have a sociological profile quite similar to Macron’s: the latter thus secures the area of big French cities. Nevertheless, the number of those who refused to choose was far bigger. More than 8.5% of voters cast a blank or spoiled ballot, compared to 2.2% a fortnight earlier. As for abstention (28%), it is also significantly higher than in the first round in 2022 (26.3%) and the second round in 2017 (25.4%), which was already high for a presidential election. Consequently, Macron’s expected victory does not have to hide the two main lessons of these elections: on the one hand, the far right achieved a level never achieved before in an election in France thanks to its ability to gather a largely popular electorate in the second round; on the other hand, the French political scene, structured around three poles, shows how the current voting system adapted to bipolarisation is outdated. This calls into question the representativeness of elected officials chosen in the second round by default rather than by preference, and, beyond that, the very functioning of democratic institutions.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Still on the subject of elections, Sebastijan R. Ma\u010dek points out in Euractiv<\/a><\/em> that in a very important election, given the increased tensions in the Balkans following the invasion of Ukraine, Slovenians voted massively in favour of change, ending the government of the nationalist Janez Jan\u0161a and giving victory to Robert Golob, the environmentalist leader of the Movement for Freedom, who is expected to lead a progressive coalition. The result means that Slovenia is heading towards a centre-left government with a comfortable majority, as all indications are that Golob will form a coalition with the Social Democrats and the left-wing party. The high turnout of 69.7% was a sign that the public wanted an end to Jan\u0161a’s centre-right government, which was often criticised for using the COVID-19 pandemic as an excuse to restrict individual freedoms and attack independent institutions such as the judiciary and the media.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Still in Central and Eastern Europe, Teresa de Sousa analyses in the Portuguese daily P\u00fablico<\/a><\/em> the situation of one of the first collateral victims of the war in Ukraine: the Visegrad Group. The visit to Kyiv by the Polish and Czech prime ministers a few days after the invasion began was a strong signal of support for Volodymyr Zelensky. The head of the Slovak government, Eduard Heger, also visited Kyiv later. The three leaders recognise each other’s interpretation of President Zelensky’s conflict: the clash between two different worlds, which oppose each other in the essential values they stand for. The fourth member of the group, Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orb\u00e1n, was not present. Thus, the Visegrad group has collapsed. Poland, a new privileged ally of the United States, is strengthened by its role in the conflict in Ukraine. On the other hand, Viktor Orb\u00e1n’s Hungary is isolated. The crisis of the bloc that was informally formed in 1991 is not new. Once the two main objectives that led to its initial cooperation \u2013membership in NATO and the European Union\u2013 had been achieved, the differences began with authoritarian drifts, first from Orb\u00e1n’s Hungary, then from Jaroslaw Kaczinski’s Poland. The war in Ukraine has only deepened these divisions.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

In The Guardian<\/a><\/em>, Larry Elliott analyses the impact of the consecutive crises (financial crisis, COVID-19, Ukraine) on globalisation. The IMF fears that the current context of de-globalisation will end up producing the same results as those that occurred during the thirties of last century: more fees, industrial protectionism and currency wars. However, even though global cooperation is necessary to solve global problems, it has not led to a generous system for providing vaccines to the South, nor has it led to a joint global plan to deal with the growing dangers of climate change. The mistake is to understand globalisation as a synonym of multilateralism and not as what it really is: a variant of capitalism. Both the example of China, the big economic winner of the last thirty years and the COVID-19 pandemic have shown that the rhetoric of neoliberal globalisation does not always work in practice. The main reason to question globalisation is therefore political, since the processes of globalisation were the result of deliberate political decisions, which implies the possibility of reversing and proposing a new model.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

In Monde Diplomatique<\/a><\/em>, Akram Belka\u00efd points out that it is easier for the United States than for Europe to do without Russian oil and gas. Not wanting to alienate Moscow, many importing countries are reluctant to replace Russia in the supply of hydrocarbons. In this context, the embargo on Russian oil and natural gas will have a considerable and lasting long-term impact. All indicates that a major reorganisation of the global hydrocarbon trade is approaching, characterised by the need for Westerners to find new suppliers and new customers for Moscow. The challenge is particularly difficult for Europe, where 62 per cent of imports from Russia are energy-related. On average, the Old Continent buys 20 per cent of its oil, 40 per cent of its natural gas and 50 per cent of its coal from Russia. However, Europe’s willingness to distance itself from Moscow faces a frozen outlook that will struggle to change as quickly as the establishment of an immediate embargo on Russian oil and gas would require. For example, Norway, which currently provides 20 per cent of European gas consumption, is an ideal resource, especially politically, but it will hardly be able to meet the additional demand, since at best it will have to wait nine months for Norwegian production to increase significantly. Other suppliers are also unable to sustainably increase their hydrocarbon production and therefore find themselves in the position of supplementary sellers rather than long-term substitutes for Russia. This is the case of Algeria, which is already struggling to produce its share within OPEC. On the other hand, replacing Russian hydrocarbons is not impossible, but it requires a coordinated approach among Europeans or even a centralisation of needs, and this goes against the whole policy of liberalisation of the sector imposed by Brussels over the past three decades. As for Russia, the future of its exports lies in China, which already absorbs 32.8 per cent of them. In February, Beijing and Moscow signed a contract to supply 10 billion cubic metres of natural gas per year and extended an agreement to release 200.000 barrels of crude oil per day for ten years.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

In this context of generalised crisis, The Economist<\/a><\/em> warns about the effects it could have on the economy of emerging countries. According to the IMF, economic output in emerging markets will grow by 3.8% this year and 4.4% in 2023, falling short of the median annual rate of 5% of the previous decade, and this trend could continue until 2024. It seems likely that the poorest countries will experience another lost decade characterised by slow growth, recurrent financial crises and increased social unrest. Growth in emerging economies has already undergone many changes, rapid in the 1960s and 1970s, with lost decades in the 1980s and 1990s and a recovery in the late 1990s. Recently, growth has been more difficult to achieve because of tightening financial market conditions and changing trade patterns, reminiscent of the obstacles faced in the 1980s and 1990s. More than 10% of the world’s low-income countries now face unsustainable debt burdens that affect their growth. In addition, food and energy costs have rocketed after the invasion of Ukraine, affecting importing countries. Rising debt and the loss of investment in human and physical capital in recent years will take a toll, and without initiatives to reduce debt burdens, invest in public goods and expand trade, the slowdown in their growth could have an even more negative impact.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

On sustainability and climate change, Yvonne Aki-Sawyerr argues in Social Europe<\/a><\/em> that, in a context where the climate crisis has intensified, women and girls face the greatest risks from environmental crises. COP25 recognised that women’s equal participation and leadership in climate policy and action is vital to achieving long-term climate goals, but during COP26, it was confirmed that little had changed. Women make up the majority of the world’s poor population and are disproportionately affected by the crises documented by the IPCC: biodiversity losses, changing weather systems and resource insecurity. Although women and girls are often the first to experience the harsh realities of climate change, they are less likely than men to participate in decision-making processes. Women’s leadership is essential in turbulent times, and it has also been shown that they perform better in environmental policy. In Africa, the importance of women’s leadership in the fight against climate change and biodiversity loss is evident.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

In addition, Alejandro Tena points out in P\u00fablico<\/a><\/em> that energy issues have become the main point of world politics. The war in Ukraine has put on hold a large part of Europe’s plans to abandon fossil fuels as quickly as possible. The continent’s dependence on Russia has blurred Brussels’ priorities, leaving energy transition as a secondary issue. Instead, the search for alternative hydrocarbon markets to Moscow and the task of securing supplies have become a political priority. This shift has opened the door to the risk of environmental regression in Europe. The Task Force on Energy Security strategy, a type of trade agreement signed by the US and Europe to intensify liquefied natural gas (LNG) flows from North America, is an example of the paradigm shift. According to the European Commission, the United States will ship 68% more gas via LNG carriers to reduce Europe’s dependence on Russian energy. It is not for nothing that the old continent continues to import fossil fuels from Russia, financing Putin’s war with more than 52 billion euros since the conflict began, according to a daily tally by BankTrack<\/a><\/em>. But the additional flows of LNG coming from the US clash directly with European principles, since much of the supply arriving in LNG tankers comes from extraction by fracking, a controversial practice due to its high environmental impact \u2013and its high economic cost\u2013 rejected in the EU and banned in some countries such as Spain. In Spain, too, some of the agreements that have led the country to become one of the European leaders in energy transition have been broken. Low dependence on Russian gas \u2013only 10 per cent of the fuel is imported from Russia\u2013 has placed Spain in an apparently privileged position with regard to guaranteeing European supplies. Moreover, the allegedly strategic position of Spain and Portugal has reopened the debate surrounding the construction of the MidCat, the gas pipeline connecting the Iberian peninsula with France through the Pyrenees. This project, which was rejected in 2019 by Spain and the French Energy Agency, seeks to guarantee European supply. Even so, the debate has not managed to settle since the vice-president for Ecological Transition, Teresa Ribera, has ruled out supporting it if it is not Brussels or France who finances it.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Le Monde’s<\/a><\/em> editorial highlights that with the Digital Services Act passed on 23rd April, the European Union will be able to require major digital platforms (Facebook, Amazon) to remove illegal online content in a more effective way. The aim is to create a safer Internet by forcing online services, such as social networks and e-commerce sites, to be more transparent and accountable about the content and products they distribute. The premise is that whatever is banned in real life must also be banned on the internet, whether it is hate speech, harassment, glorification of terrorism, child pornography, attacks on minors, dissemination of fake news or the sale of counterfeit, defective or dangerous products. The concern of this legislation lies in its European dimension, since a state on its own does not currently have the power of the EU-27 to change the behaviour of platforms. Through this agreement, the EU is demonstrating its usefulness in defending the interests of its citizens in the face of the major challenges of the 21st century. Beyond the economic challenges, the power of the digital giants is also threatening on a social level. By favouring controversial content in order to provoke as many reactions as possible, their algorithms end up fuelling resentment and mistrust, disrupting the democratic game and emphasise the polarisation of society. At the same time, the recent purchase of Twitter by Elon Musk, who defends a radical conception of freedom of expression, is a reminder of how urgent it is to restrict the functioning of social networks. The owner of Tesla believes that there are no legal limits to what can be said in the public space, but it is important to underline that the algorithmic breadth that social networks give to fake news and hate turns this libertarian approach into a powerful source of instability.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Illustration: Kill bill #2. Alena Kuznetsova, 2017.<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Ra\u00fcl Gil, Pilar Querol and H\u00e8ctor G\u00e1mez, trainees at the CETC, have contributed to this issue 60 of Diari de les Idees<\/em>.<\/strong><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

This new edition of Diari de les Idees is issued at a time when the war in Ukraine seems to have settled, with a growing risk of escalation to adjacent territories and the involvement of more actors. This is the scary conclusion after the declarations of the Deputy Commander of the Russian Central Military, Major-General Rustam Minnekayev, announcing that the objective of the second phase of the war is to occupy the whole of Donbas, in the east, and the south of the country until it connects with Transnistria, a region of Moldova controlled by pro-Russian separatists. In addition, the\u2026<\/p>\n","protected":false},"featured_media":56676,"template":"","category_newspaper":[454],"segment":[],"subject":[],"class_list":["post-57304","newspaper","type-newspaper","status-publish","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category_newspaper-454"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"\nDiari de les idees 60 – IDEES<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/revistaidees.cat\/en\/analisis\/diari-de-les-idees\/diari-de-les-idees-60\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Diari de les idees 60 – IDEES\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"This new edition of Diari de les Idees is issued at a time when the war in Ukraine seems to have settled, with a growing risk of escalation to adjacent territories and the involvement of more actors. This is the scary conclusion after the declarations of the Deputy Commander of the Russian Central Military, Major-General Rustam Minnekayev, announcing that the objective of the second phase of the war is to occupy the whole of Donbas, in the east, and the south of the country until it connects with Transnistria, a region of Moldova controlled by pro-Russian separatists. 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This is the scary conclusion after the declarations of the Deputy Commander of the Russian Central Military, Major-General Rustam Minnekayev, announcing that the objective of the second phase of the war is to occupy the whole of Donbas, in the east, and the south of the country until it connects with Transnistria, a region of Moldova controlled by pro-Russian separatists. 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