{"id":57532,"date":"2022-06-02T05:46:23","date_gmt":"2022-06-02T05:46:23","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/revistaidees.cat\/analisis\/diari-de-les-idees\/diari-de-les-idees-62\/"},"modified":"2022-06-06T12:55:32","modified_gmt":"2022-06-06T12:55:32","slug":"diari-de-les-idees-62","status":"publish","type":"newspaper","link":"https:\/\/revistaidees.cat\/en\/analisis\/diari-de-les-idees\/diari-de-les-idees-62\/","title":{"rendered":"Diari de les idees 62"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The stalemate in the war in Ukraine despite Russia&#8217;s slow and costly progress in the Donbass, the reconfiguration of geopolitical balances not only globally but also within the EU, China&#8217;s expansionist strategy in the Pacific islands, the repercussions of the Russian-Ukrainian conflict on the world economy that even raise fears of a food crisis with its correlate of popular revolts, the impact of post-truth on democracy and the growth of surveillance capitalism as a global institutional order in the technological sphere are some of the main topics addressed in this new edition of the <em>Diari de les idees<\/em>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The impact of the conflict on the European continent is the subject of analysis by Ruth Ferrero in <a href=\"https:\/\/blogs.publico.es\/dominiopublico\/45653\/hacia-donde-camina-europa\/\"><em>P\u00fablico<\/em><\/a> where she argues that the war in Ukraine is reshaping geopolitical balances. Three months have passed since the start of the Russian invasion and it is beginning to be possible to analyze the scenario from a broader perspective. Hardly anyone thinks of this as a war fought only in Ukraine any more, and in this respect, Biden&#8217;s recent statements on Taiwan leave little doubt. The war is bringing other interests to the fore beyond moral or nationalist considerations. In Europe, the with-me-or-against-me approach continues, which only leads to the simplification of a situation that is no longer reversible, and for which alternatives will have to be sought. The debates taking place these days in Berlin, Paris or Rome contrast with the dominant discourse coming from Eastern and Northern Europe, which is perfectly aligned with the US and NATO. These are two opposing approaches that are justified based on specific historical episodes. On the one hand, France argues that Russia should not be punished too harshly so as not to repeat the process of radicalisation experienced by Germany after the First World War. On the other hand, the Baltics and Scandinavians believe that Russia should be punished even more severely, that reparations should be paid and that regime change in Moscow should be achieved so that the current situation is never revived. This debate is crucial, as the confrontation of the ideas underway will provide the basis on which the European Union will begin to readjust to the global changes that have been accelerated by the war. Currently, the construction of a geopolitical Europe without nuances is being considered, where nothing is debated that does not have to do with security and defence issues. Everything else takes a back seat. The absence of reflection, the impatience to show how united the EU is, is beginning to generate its own monsters. The crisis of the Franco-German axis and its loss of <em>auctoritas<\/em> is becoming increasingly evident, and signs of a shift in the balance of power within the EU are beginning to emerge. The war on Europe&#8217;s eastern border has given increasing weight to the alliances that are being forged beyond the Rhine within the framework of a new Hanseatic League that wants to rebuild the European project with its centre of gravity shifting further eastwards and in perfect coordination with Washington in security and defence matters. For their part, Italy, France and Germany have tried to react by proposing alternatives to the most inflexible positions and modulating a discourse that fails to convince anyone. Weeks and months of important European debate lie ahead, in which decisions will be taken that will have a major social impact on the future. There will be talk of EU enlargement, of NATO&#8217;s strategic concept, of a stronger Europe, of strengthening deterrence, but also of defence and security as an existential issue. On the other hand, there will be no talk of how to prevent cuts in the rule of law, how to defend rights and freedoms, or how to design more redistributive and fairer public policies.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Regarding the impact of the war outside Europe, Richard Stengel points out in <a href=\"https:\/\/time.com\/6179221\/putin-information-war-column\/\"><em>Time<\/em><\/a> magazine that many countries in Africa, the Middle East and South America have not imposed sanctions on Russia. Nor has Russia included them on its list of &#8216;enemy&#8217; nations. This means that Putin may be losing the information war in Europe and America, but not in other places such as India or China. This data is relevant because it means that two thirds of the world&#8217;s population live in countries that are neutral or supportive of Russia, and that is because they do not see the same war as the West does. The internet is not the same everywhere and in countries like Russia, Turkey or China there is censorship, restrictions and disinformation. The Russians already have experience in this kind of hybrid warfare, which mixes information warfare and kinetic warfare, because they used it during the annexation of Crimea. Yet the main target of this disinformation war is in Russia itself, as 85 per cent of the Russian population gets most of its information from the state media, which are a projection of how Putin sees the world and ignore any news that contradicts the president&#8217;s narrative.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Thus, Pol Bargu\u00e9s states in <a href=\"https:\/\/www.cidob.org\/publicaciones\/serie_de_publicacion\/opinion_cidob\/2022\/conflicto_hibrido_guerra_total\">CIDOB<\/a> magazine that this war cannot be understood without its hybrid component, without the less conventional part of the war. The concept of hybrid conflict served for years to understand what was happening in the Donbass since 2014: conventional military clashes between the Ukrainian army and Russian-backed separatists combined with irregular tactics such as disinformation, cyber-attacks, agitation or insurgency to create a grey zone that dragged on for seven years. Now, hybrid tactics have intensified and are making this contest more unpredictable, less clear-cut, and even more brutal. The theorist of the English school of international relations, Hedley Bull, said that not only peacetime but also even wars were regulated by rules, but today hybrid wars are eroding them. For years, disinformation campaigns have influenced policy and blurred the line between war and peace. For example, in 2014, the Kremlin denied its involvement in the operation in which unidentified soldiers gained control of Crimea and facilitated its annexation by Russia. Such disinformation tactics have multiplied since the beginning of Russia&#8217;s invasion of Ukraine and impede the building of collective norms. It is not just a matter of different interpretations of the truth; disinformation is about misleading, manipulating, intentionally misrepresenting. In the same context, official Ukrainian websites have been hacked to spread pro-Russian propaganda, such as images of Russian soldiers protecting civilians, distributing food or facilitating humanitarian corridors. These disinformation campaigns play a key role in that they seek to delegitimise the opponent&#8217;s actions and justify one&#8217;s own. Cyberspace has been another theatre of conflict; a space unexplored in the conventional wars of the 20th century, difficult to regulate, and which now helps to increase the devastating effect of the conflict. Since the beginning of the invasion, Russia has launched cyber-attacks and denial of service (DoS) attacks against government websites, telecommunications companies, parliamentarians&#8217; mobile phones and the media, while official Russian websites (including those of the Kremlin), as well as television stations, banks and telecommunications infrastructure have also been hit by counter-attacks. Economic confrontation, especially in the energy sphere, has also been used in this war in an attempt to break the interdependence between Russia and Europe. Thus, Ukrainian power stations have been bombed as if they were military targets, resulting in dozens of cities and thousands of consumers being deprived of gas, water and electricity supplies.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><a href=\"http:\/\/www.slate.fr\/story\/228202\/tribune-guerre-ukraine-russie-verites-derangent-occident-europe-otan-etats-unis-vladimir-poutine\"><em>Slate<\/em><\/a> magazine notes that the invasion of Ukraine has opened the eyes of a West that had been deluding itself since the end of the Cold War. The US and its allies now present the war as an opportunity to weaken Russia permanently and consider that facilitating a Putin-friendly exit would be counterproductive because the Russian president could learn from his mistake and launch a new war adventure in due course, this time with the right aim and strategy. However, the Western aspiration to &#8220;moralise&#8221; the war is also contradictory insofar as Western governments&#8217; misinterpretation of the Russian domestic situation and their policy of appeasing the Kremlin have also contributed to the current situation. At the same time, the fact that Westerners seek to promote their values in countries whose leaders reject them causes them to seek alliances with dictatorships with which they share authoritarian and conservative values. Ultimately, what the war in Ukraine highlights is the need for a new European security framework that establishes a new diplomatic and military situation for the West and Europe.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">With regard to other aspects of international politics, Kate Lyons notes in <a href=\"https:\/\/www.theguardian.com\/world\/2022\/may\/26\/deal-proposed-by-china-would-dramatically-expand-security-influence-in-pacific\"><em>The Guardian<\/em><\/a> that China is seeking a regional economic security agreement with the Pacific islands that would substantially increase its influence over the entire area. The security agreement covers police training, cyber security, marine mapping and access to natural resources. A draft agreement &#8211; similar to the controversial bilateral security agreement signed with the Solomon Islands in April &#8211; and a five-year action plan cover a wide range of issues, including trade, finance and investment, tourism, public health and anti-COVID-19 support, the establishment of cultural and linguistic exchanges, training and scholarships, and disaster prevention and relief. The promotion of trade between the countries of the region is also envisaged, including the possibility of establishing a free trade area with the Pacific countries. This is in a context where China already dominates the Pacific resource extraction industries. A <a href=\"https:\/\/www.theguardian.com\/world\/2021\/may\/31\/the-3bn-bargain-how-china-dominates-pacific-mining-logging-and-fishing\">research<\/a> conducted by <em>The Guardian<\/em> reveals that China was the recipient of more than half of the total tonnes of seafood, timber and minerals exported from the region in 2019, worth US$3.3 billion.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">For his part, the historian Adam Tooze stresses in <a href=\"https:\/\/foreignpolicy.com\/2022\/05\/13\/africa-century-economic-growth\/?tpcc=recirc_latest062921\"><em>Foreign Policy<\/em><\/a> that if the economic recovery of China and India has been one of the most relevant aspects of the first quarter of the 21st century, the coming decades will bring another revolution: the surprising demographic transformation of Africa. Unlike Asia, the African continent has historically been characterised by low population density. Thus, Africa&#8217;s population in 1914 was 124 million, just over 7 per cent of the world&#8217;s population. The 20th century brought about a demographic revolution in Africa and today its population stands at about 1.4 billion, and is expected to increase further in the coming decades. As Edward Paice points out in his book <em>Youthquake: Why African Demography Should Matter to the World<\/em> (Apollo, 2021), Africa is expected to have between 2.2 and 2.5 billion people by 2050. This means that by mid-century, Africa will probably account for 25 per cent of the world&#8217;s population. It is clear that making projections decades ahead is speculative and risky, but based on the <a href=\"https:\/\/population.un.org\/wpp\/\">United Nations<\/a> projections&nbsp;Africa&#8217;s population will exceed 4.2 billion by 2100, constituting 40 per cent of the world&#8217;s population.&nbsp; This exponential growth coupled with an accelerating urbanisation process raises the question of how Africa&#8217;s cities can have the infrastructure and services their inhabitants need. Across the continent, more than 640 million Africans do not have access to electricity, the lowest rate of access to electricity in the world. According to the <a href=\"https:\/\/www.afdb.org\/fileadmin\/uploads\/afdb\/Documents\/Publications\/2018AEO\/African_Economic_Outlook_2018_-_EN_Chapter3.pdf\">African Development Bank<\/a>, per capita energy consumption in sub-Saharan Africa (excluding South Africa) is 180 kilowatt-hours (kWh), compared to 13,000 kWh per capita in the United States and 6,500 kWh in Europe. Thus, no account of 21st century globalisation can be complete without incorporating African voices and analysis from an African perspective. In institutional terms, the blind spots are clear. The G-20 has only one African member, South Africa. Like Latin America and India, Africa has no permanent seat on the Security Council. This is not simply a failure of moral vision and justice but reflects an unrealistic and outdated understanding of the world in the 21st century.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">As for Catalan and Spanish politics, Jos\u00e9 Antich analyses in <a href=\"https:\/\/www.elnacional.cat\/ca\/editorial\/antich-tornada-blanc-negre-rei_760461_102.html\"><em>El Nacional<\/em><\/a> the recent visit of the king emeritus and considers that the return to Spain of the king on the run and the treatment received from a large part of the media have turned what should have been a private visit into an image campaign for the monarchy in an attempt to whitewash his figure. However, he stresses that Juan Carlos I is a naked king who has not given any explanation of the tax fraud, nor of the funds in tax havens, nor of the million-dollar commissions he received for intervening in different businesses. If we lose sight of this, we are giving reason to those who claim, from a position that is untenable today, that it is best at this time to leave things as they are, because the services that the emeritus has rendered make him worthy of different treatment. This shortsighted view of history forgets that while he strolled around Sanxenxo with absolute freedom, exiled pro-independence politicians cannot return because they would be arrested. As Antich says, it can be said that it is a matter of justice, and he is right: of the questionable Spanish justice system. The visit has also been widely commented negatively in media such as <a href=\"https:\/\/www.economist.com\/europe\/2022\/05\/26\/spains-former-monarch-is-a-headache-for-his-son\"><em>The Economist<\/em><\/a> which highlights the payment of 4.4 million euros in tax regularisation or the alleged payment of commissions as an intermediary for the construction of the AVE to Mecca. For its part, <a href=\"https:\/\/www.politico.eu\/article\/return-king-juan-carlos-problematic-spain-homecoming\/\"><em>Politico<\/em><\/a><em> <\/em> recalls that despite the closure in Spain of investigations into his finances, a British court recently ruled that Juan Carlos I cannot claim immunity from prosecution by Corinna zu Sayn-Wittgenstein, who accuses him of orchestrating a campaign of harassment at the end of their relationship.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Continuing on the subject of the Spanish government&#8217;s spying on Catalan pro-independence leaders, the executive director of R3D (Red Defensa de los Derechos Digitales) Luis Fernando Garc\u00eda argues in <a href=\"https:\/\/ctxt.es\/es\/20220501\/Politica\/39699\/pegasus-espionaje-entrevista-sebastiaan-faber-luis-fernando-garcia-derechos-digitales.htm\"><em>CTXT<\/em><\/a> that no democracy should have at its disposal tools as powerful as Pegasus and considers that the fact that states spy does not justify spying, especially with today&#8217;s technological changes that allow them to have tools with almost unlimited reach. The surveillance that can now be carried out with the new tools is much more intense and does not have the same consequences as with the old methods of spying. In the context of human rights, it would be necessary to rethink and rethink the legitimacy of state activities in a democracy. Of course, there are no states without corrupt elements, but the most serious mistake would be to accept or normalise the use of these tools in countries with a more established democratic tradition than, for example, Saudi Arabia.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">In this sense, the article by Vicent Manancourt in <a href=\"https:\/\/www.politico.eu\/article\/europe-pegasus-spyware-eu-probe-nso\/\"><em>Politico<\/em><\/a> highlights that the European Parliament has launched a committee of enquiry into the Pegasus spying software. Investigations have revealed that the intrusive spying software is widespread in Europe and has been used not only to spy on Pedro S\u00e1nchez, Margarita Robles or Catalan pro-independence supporters but also on political parties and leaders in France, the UK, Poland and Hungary. However, the complex structure of the NSO group that owns the software makes investigations extremely difficult and Belgian politician Saskia Bricmont, a member of the investigation committee, says that the lack of transparency, complex corporate structures and international shareholders dilute responsibilities. Moreover, a power struggle is taking place within the group itself, and the group&#8217;s new owners &#8211; investment firm BRG &#8211; have said that their efforts to investigate and reform the company are being frustrated by NSO&#8217;s founders, Shalev Hulio and Omri Lavie, and previous owner Novalpina.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">On European affairs, Kurt Bassuener and Toby Vogel warn in <a href=\"https:\/\/www.foreignaffairs.com\/articles\/bosnia-herzegovina\/2022-05-18\/bosnias-dangerous-path\"><em>Foreign Affairs<\/em><\/a> that the war in Ukraine comes at a time when the Western Balkans is experiencing a level of tension and uncertainty not seen in decades. Serbia&#8217;s President Aleksandar Vucic exercises almost complete control over his country&#8217;s media and is fuelling unrest in Serb-inhabited areas of Kosovo. In Bosnia, his ally Milorad Dodik, a Serb member of the tripartite state presidency, has advocated secession of Serb-controlled parts of the country. A similar alliance exists between the Croatian government (an EU and NATO member) and Dragan Covic, the Bosnian Croat nationalist leader. In this context, the UN indicates that approximately 55,000 people leave Bosnia each year and has warned that, if this continues, Bosnia&#8217;s population could be as low as 1.6 million by 2070 (it is currently three million). Russia has played a large part in creating this situation by supporting the populist Bosnian Serb regime with the aim of creating uncertainty on the West&#8217;s borders. For years, Russia has actively sought to prevent and deter Bosnian EU and NATO membership and Russia&#8217;s ambassador to Bosnia stated a few weeks ago that the invasion of Ukraine might be an example of what could happen in Bosnia if it were to seek NATO membership. However, local leaders are also pursuing their own agendas and what is most worrying is that these leaders are often the very actors that the EU and the US present as partners in Bosnia&#8217;s democratic and economic development. The US and Europe need to change course and help prevent Bosnia&#8217;s de facto dissolution. The centrepiece of this change could be the redeployment of a full brigade of NATO forces to Bosnia ahead of the UN Security Council vote in November on an extension of the EU forces&#8217; mandate, which Russia (and perhaps China) is expected to veto. If before the invasion of Ukraine such a move might have been interpreted as provocative, now that NATO is sending large quantities of arms to Ukraine and reinforcing its presence in Eastern Europe, a deployment in Bosnia would have to be seen as the most elementary prudence.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Tom McTague analyses in <a href=\"https:\/\/www.theatlantic.com\/international\/archive\/2022\/05\/eu-brexit-role-in-northern-ireland\/629905\/\"><em>The Atlantic<\/em><\/a> Ireland&#8217;s future beyond the recent Northern Ireland Assembly elections and stresses that by leaving the EU, and doing so in the way it did &#8211; by exiting the EU&#8217;s economic zone and political structure &#8211; Britain created a problem that did not exist before: the need for a trade and customs border between Britain and the EU to avoid requiring controls on goods travelling between Northern Ireland and the Republic of Ireland. But British Unionists argue that the agreement prioritises the wishes of Irish nationalists not to have a land border on the island of Ireland over the Unionists&#8217; desire not to have a maritime border within their own country. In protest, the Unionists refuse to share power until the issue is resolved. On the other hand, the EU has also been wrong to believe that this is an issue that can somehow be legally resolved without the consent of the two communities living there.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Mercedes Herrero de la Fuente points out in <a href=\"https:\/\/theconversation.com\/como-hemos-llegado-a-esta-posverdad-redes-sociales-y-desinformacion-182492\"><em>The Conversation<\/em><\/a> the main keys to the impact of post-truth on democracy over the last few years and points out that according to a&nbsp;<a href=\"https:\/\/www.gartner.com\/smarterwithgartner\/gartner-top-strategic-predictions-for-2018-and-beyond\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">report<\/a>&nbsp;from Garner consulting, today, more fake news content is already consumed than real news content. Disinformation is a phenomenon we live with on a daily basis and social networks function as a kind of necessary collaborator, allowing the large-scale and rapid dissemination of false news. Its multiplying effect is aggravated in a context of polarisation where half-truths, distorted messages or outright falsehoods grow on fertile ground. This post-truth scenario has been constructed by three major actors: the political and institutional sphere, the media and the citizens themselves. The impact of the 2008 financial crash on the middle classes has led to a growing alienation from politics on the part of public opinion, a disaffection exploited in increasingly aggressive communication strategies. Political parties and institutions themselves often promote simple discourses, appealing directly to emotions. Social networks are an ideal vehicle for this type of strategy, where the complexity of the issues is obviated. For their part, the media, weakened after years of economic crisis and struggling to find their place in the new digital ecosystem, have promoted sensationalism and fuelled false debates. So-called infotainment, especially on television, and the practice of clickbait have caused the rigour of their content to plummet. In this context, citizens are witnessing a constant flow of messages, delivered through a growing number of channels. Given the prevailing partisan nature of public opinion positions, it seems essential to take sides, which activates mechanisms such as confirmation bias, which functions as uncritical feedback. Disinformation has an impact in many areas, but it is on the health of democracies that its effects can be most devastating.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Bonaventura de Sousa Santos argues in the Brazilian magazine <a href=\"https:\/\/sul21.com.br\/opiniao\/2022\/05\/o-oriente-e-o-ocidente-por-boaventura-de-sousa-santos\/\"><em>Sul21<\/em><\/a> that the persistence of the contrast between West and East in culture and international relations is so great that it has become an archetype, a kind of Jungian collective unconscious that surfaces in consciousness in multiple forms, whenever circumstances permit. The West-East relationship deserves to be revisited in two respects. First, history is contingent. Throughout history, the direction of relations between West and East is less unidirectional than pendulum-like: for centuries, the East dominated, for the last two centuries the West has dominated. There are signs that this dominance may be ending, as by the beginning of the next decade China will be the world&#8217;s leading economic power. Second, contrary to the facts, the traditional explanation of the inferiority of the East continues to dominate the popular Western imagination. It is therefore easy to use it politically. Whenever Europeans feel the need to westernise their image, they orientalise the countries with which they have conflicts &#8211; especially if they belong to both Europe and Asia &#8211; as is the case with Turkey and Russia. When Europe wanted to reject Turkey&#8217;s entry into the European Union, it orientalised it, and now the legitimate condemnation of the illegal invasion of Ukraine is leading to the orientalisation of Russia.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">In the economic sphere, G\u00e9rard Horny questions in <a href=\"http:\/\/www.slate.fr\/story\/227908\/nouveau-visage-mondialisation-guerre-ukraine-pandemie-covid-19-economie-europe-etats-unis-chine\"><em>Slate<\/em><\/a> the first signs of a de-globalisation that some people have wanted to see in the wake of the shock to world trade caused by the COVID-19 pandemic and the invasion of Ukraine. The health crisis brought a palpable realisation of our dependence on China. We used to see &#8220;made in China&#8221; on almost everything we bought, but we had not realised what would happen if, for some reason, these flows of goods stopped. And, it was a shock to discover that we were not able to manufacture masks or that we were dependent on China and India for the active ingredients of serological tests. Now the Russian invasion of Ukraine has made us realise how important these two countries are in the world&#8217;s food balance. And when the time came to move on to sanctions, we realised how dependent Europe was on Russian hydrocarbons, not to mention certain rare metals. However, this evolution had already begun when Donald Trump wanted to impose new rules of the game on his trading partners closest to the American continent, particularly in the automotive sector, and tried to rebalance trade with China, which was no longer simply a country where one could settle to take advantage of the cheap labour force of a power that had little concern for freedoms, nor a country that was growing richer to the point of becoming the first outlet for many products. China had already become a major economic and political power with which relations were becoming increasingly complicated. Europe then also perceived that it would find it difficult to find its place between the two great powers in the future. In this context, Horny argues that one could speak of de-globalisation if international trade were in decline, but this is not the case. The <a href=\"http:\/\/www.slate.fr\/dossier\/2683\/omc\">WTO<\/a> is concerned about the consequences of the war in Ukraine, but still considers a 3% increase in world trade possible this year. After the sharp drop in 2020 due to COVID-19, trade activity has rebounded and is now at its highest level ever. The big change is that it is no longer moving at the same pace as before.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">In <a href=\"https:\/\/atlantico.fr\/article\/decryptage\/le-jeu-des-7-pays-en-croissance-euphorique-dans-un-climat-de-deprime-generale-pour-cause-de-guerre-en-ukraine-ou-de-covid-en-chine-economie-mondialisation-croissance-pib-pouvoir-d-achat-jean-marc-sylvestre\"><em>Atlantico<\/em><\/a>, Jean-Marc Sylvestre highlights the case of countries that, despite the current economic situation, have strong growth prospects. The IMF, central banks, the European Commission and most economic institutes consider that the post-COVID recovery has been cut short. Three months after the invasion of Ukraine, economists around the world have revised down their global growth forecasts for 2022. The IMF forecasts global growth of 3.6% and with respect to Europe, after 7% growth in 2021, it is expected to be 2.5% in 2022. The seven most active countries are divided into three groups. First, there are those that export oil and gas. Guyana, for example, a small South American country, will experience 47% growth this year. The country discovered huge oil reserves in 2020 and has already started exporting oil. Kuwait, Saudi Arabia, Iraq, all major oil exporters, will also benefit from the rise in oil prices linked to the slowdown in trade with Russia. Growth in these countries is expected to be between 9% and 10%. A second group is that of countries benefiting from the recovery in tourism, mainly those in the Caribbean, especially Barbados and Saint Lucia, which will see growth of more than 10%, thanks to North American customers. Finally, the group of countries that owe their prosperity to raw materials and in particular to rare earths, where the leader will be India with a growth of 8%, thanks also to the fact that it has a large and cheap labour force.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">With regard to climate change, in an article published in <a href=\"https:\/\/www.economist.com\/by-invitation\/2022\/05\/14\/yemi-osinbajo-on-the-hypocrisy-of-rich-countries-climate-policies\"><em>The Economist<\/em><\/a>, Nigeria&#8217;s Vice President Yemi Osinbajo argues that Africa needs more access to electricity as the total electricity consumption for the more than 1.4 billion people in the 48 countries of sub-Saharan Africa, except South Africa, is less than that of Spain (with only 47 million inhabitants). It stresses that the global energy inequality gap must be closed in order to create industrial and commercial jobs, and that, to participate fully in the global economy, Africa needs reliable low-cost energy for facilities such as data centres and, eventually, for millions of electric vehicles. Moreover, if the continent&#8217;s unmet energy needs are already huge, future demand will be even greater as the population grows, urbanisation accelerates and the middle class increases. For example, by 2050 Nigeria will have 400 million more people than the United States, the vast majority of them in cities, with the population of Lagos alone exceeding 30 million. Osinbajo also charges that global policies increasingly restrict Africa&#8217;s energy technology options. Rich countries, especially in Europe, have repeatedly asked African states to use only renewable energy sources. This is partly due to a na\u00efve belief in the quick benefits of technological leapfrogging. He believes that the mantra on renewables is also driven by unjustified fears about the continent&#8217;s future emissions. However, he argues that in no way does Africa pose a threat to global climate goals and that rather than seeing Africa&#8217;s development as a threat; it should be seen as a great opportunity. The challenge for the continent is to make the transition to zero emissions while at the same time building sustainable energy systems to drive development and economic opportunities. The EU&#8217;s recent decision to label natural gas and nuclear energy as green investments recognises a critical truth: different countries will follow different paths in the energy transition. If this is true for Europe, it is even more so for African countries. Ultimately, the world cannot address collective challenges if poor nations are treated as second class or if their aspirations are ignored. Having lived through colonialism, decades of unjust economic practices and the <em>apartheid<\/em> of the COVID-19 vaccine, Osinbajo warns that Africans cannot accept regressive climate policy as another injustice in addressing the twin crises of poverty and climate emergency.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><a href=\"https:\/\/theconversation.com\/les-contentieux-climatiques-face-a-la-justice-un-interet-grandissant-pour-le-giec-181643\">Marta Torre-Schaub<\/a> points out in <em>The Conversation<\/em> the growing importance of litigation in reshaping global climate governance, according to the data provided by the <a href=\"https:\/\/www.ipcc.ch\/report\/sixth-assessment-report-working-group-3\/\">Sixth IPCC Report<\/a>, published this April. Climate disputes are disputes that have the issue of climate change at the heart of the claim brought to court. Such litigation has multiplied around the world since 2015, following a decision by the Court of First Instance in The Hague where the NGO Urgenda won its case for the Dutch state to accelerate its CO2 reduction policies. The latest IPCC report highlights the rise of such legal instruments and the place they now occupy in the fight against climate change. This recognition by the international panel of scientists is ground breaking, as it is the first time that it has taken an interest in the social and legal dynamics underlying such litigation. Thus, the report pays particular attention to the different legal mobilisations led by civil society against states and private actors aimed at mitigating climate change. It highlights the different legal actions that make the link between national and international climate policies. The report addresses the issue of litigation by describing it as a form of civil society pressure on states and corporations. Thus, climate disputes are analysed in relation to two issues: climate policies and the improvement of climate governance by actors. That said, the IPCC report shows that this is above all a dynamic that is still developing, but with great potential. It is therefore not so much a question of the results obtained so far, but of the capacity of these disputes to put pressure on decision-makers.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">To conclude, Shoshana Zuboff stresses in <a href=\"https:\/\/time.com\/6173639\/democracy-big-techs-dominance-shoshana-zuboff\/\"><em>Time<\/em><\/a> magazine the active role that democracy must play in relation to the dominance of large technology companies in the daily lives of citizens. If only two decades ago barely 25% of the world&#8217;s information was digital, today virtually nothing escapes this network. In just two decades, surveillance capitalism has grown into a global institutional order that connects virtually all human engagement with digital architectures in all areas of daily life. Tech giants and their ecosystems now own all the data on all the people, the data science and scientists, the wires, the computers and the clouds. They control the global knowledge production market known as Artificial Intelligence and machine learning. They decide what becomes knowledge, who has access and for what purpose. Since the dawn of the World Wide Web in the mid-1990s, liberal democracies have failed to construct a coherent political vision of a digital century that would promote democratic values, principles and governance. Ours is an accidental dystopia, a global zero-sum game in which the expanding order of surveillance capitalism produces increasing democratic disorder, eroding the social fabric as a prelude to a broader battle for the politics of knowledge. Zuboff argues that we were too complacent, too apathetic, that we took democracy and the institutions of the fourth estate for granted, which has made us spectators of our own future. However, it seems that things are changing and that the democratic order can win this battle. Indeed, in the US, in Europe and almost everywhere else, there has been a widespread breakdown of the public&#8217;s blind trust in technology companies and the future they want to impose. Thus, legislators have started to act with a steadily growing number of initiatives, and the EU has reached a powerful political agreement through the <a href=\"https:\/\/ec.europa.eu\/info\/strategy\/priorities-2019-2024\/europe-fit-digital-age\/digital-services-act-ensuring-safe-and-accountable-online-environment_en\">Digital Services Act<\/a>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>Pilar Querol, H\u00e8ctor G\u00e1mez and Arnau In\u00e9s, trainees at the CETC, have participated in this issue 62 of <em>Diari de les idees<\/em>.<\/strong><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>The stalemate in the war in Ukraine despite Russia&#8217;s slow and costly progress in the Donbass, the reconfiguration of geopolitical balances not only globally but also within the EU, China&#8217;s expansionist strategy in the Pacific islands, the repercussions of the Russian-Ukrainian conflict on the world economy that even raise fears of a food crisis with its correlate of popular revolts, the impact of post-truth on democracy and the growth of surveillance capitalism as a global institutional order in the technological sphere are some of the main topics addressed in this new edition of the Diari de les idees. The impact\u2026<\/p>\n","protected":false},"featured_media":71138,"template":"","category_newspaper":[454],"segment":[],"subject":[],"class_list":["post-57532","newspaper","type-newspaper","status-publish","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category_newspaper-454"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v27.7 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>Diari de les idees 62 &#8211; IDEES<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/revistaidees.cat\/en\/analisis\/diari-de-les-idees\/diari-de-les-idees-62\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Diari de les idees 62 &#8211; IDEES\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"The stalemate in the war in Ukraine despite Russia&#8217;s slow and costly progress in the Donbass, the reconfiguration of geopolitical balances not only globally but also within the EU, China&#8217;s expansionist strategy in the Pacific islands, the repercussions of the Russian-Ukrainian conflict on the world economy that even raise fears of a food crisis with its correlate of popular revolts, the impact of post-truth on democracy and the growth of surveillance capitalism as a global institutional order in the technological sphere are some of the main topics addressed in this new edition of the Diari de les idees. 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