{"id":60774,"date":"2022-11-17T06:28:00","date_gmt":"2022-11-17T04:28:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/revistaidees.cat\/analisis\/diari-de-les-idees\/diari-de-les-idees-72\/"},"modified":"2022-12-30T12:26:17","modified_gmt":"2022-12-30T10:26:17","slug":"diari-de-les-idees-72","status":"publish","type":"newspaper","link":"https:\/\/revistaidees.cat\/en\/analisis\/diari-de-les-idees\/diari-de-les-idees-72\/","title":{"rendered":"Diari de les idees 72"},"content":{"rendered":"\n

The questions raised by the withdrawal of Russian troops from the city of Kherson \u2013 the main gift for Ukraine after almost nine months of the war \u2013, the Midterm elections in the United States, and the celebration of COP27 in Egypt.  The danger of the so-called “electoral autocracies” for liberal democracy; multilateralism as a strategy to face global challenges, the future of the International Monetary Fund in a context of simultaneous crises, and China’s ambitious plans for the development of Artificial Intelligence are some of the topics highlighted in this new edition of the Diari de les Idees<\/em>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

In the field of international politics, one of the prominent topics is the mid-term elections held in the United States. Andrew Prokop analyzes in the American magazine Vox<\/em><\/a> the results of an election where the Democratic Party exceeded the expectations that predicted the loss of the House of Representatives and the Senate. The Republicans have obtained a pyrrhic victory with a tight majority in the House of Representatives: at the time of closing this edition and in the absence of some results they have obtained 218 seats against the Democrats’ 211 – the majority to control the House is precisely 218 \u2013 with the possibility of adding 2 or 3 more, while they have not managed to change the majority in the Senate. While it’s still too early to draw any definitive conclusions about why the predicted red tide hasn’t happened, a couple of trends can be put forward that could help explain the results. On the one hand, it stands out that the candidates who aspired to repeat the mandate have proven to be quite resistant to the general context that predicted a kind of referendum on the policies of President Joe Biden. Indeed, wherever the few changes that have favored Republican candidates this was mainly due to redistricting, with new, more GOP-friendly maps in the states of New York and Florida. On the other hand, everything indicates that two years later the country is still quite polarized, with results very similar to those of 2020 when the mid-term elections are usually quite adverse to the president’s party (as in 2006, 2010, 2014 and 2018 ), even in the case of characters as popular as Bill Clinton and Barack Obama who had much higher satisfaction ratings than Joe Biden’s current ones.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Regarding the interpretation of results, everything indicates that two factors have been particularly relevant: the decision of the Supreme Court on abortion and the negative impact of former president Donald Trump. Indeed, throughout the first half of 2022, polls and by-election results in several constituencies indicated that Democrats were on track to lose their majorities in both chambers. And then came the Supreme Court ruling removing a legal status quo that had existed for half a century. The ruling \u2013and the messaging from the Democratic Party\u2013 appears to have mobilized voters in the Democratic base who might otherwise have opted to abstain as well as undecided voters who felt the country was slipping too far to the right. As for the role of Donald Trump, this has been decisive, for example, with his support for unqualified or extremist candidates who are precisely those who have caused the defeat of the Republicans in the Senate, as is the case of Mehmet Oz in Pennsylvania and Herschel Walker in Georgia. At the same time, his prominence during the campaign ended up turning the election into a kind of presidential runoff and a referendum between him and Joe Biden.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

One of the other outstanding topics is the celebration of the COP27<\/a>, which is taking place in Egypt since November 6. This year, everything indicates that the conference will study the conclusions of COP26, held at the end of 2021 in Glasgow. There, the commitment to contribute 100 billion dollars annually to developing countries to alleviate the consequences of climate change was reaffirmed, as well as the need to use at least half of this funding to implement adaptation plans. In this new edition, the conference will focus on assessing what countries have done over the past year and will seek to establish measures for the urgent reduction of greenhouse gas emissions, strengthening resilience and adaptation to the inevitable consequences of climate change. In this context, the debates will cover the enforcement of what was approved in Glasgow rather than decree new measures since the war in Ukraine and the economic crisis provokes that efforts will be devoted to making the Paris Agreement fully operational. Another of the major challenges of the conference will be to approve the mechanism that allows the creation of a fund for losses and damages related to the impacts of climate change. This comes with reluctance from the rich countries because their concern about possible liability claims for damages caused by their emissions continues to hold back the possibility of developing ambitious climate action. Sharm El Sheikh will also discuss how to make the Santiago Network<\/a> operational, created at COP25 in Madrid (2019) as a tool to promote technical assistance in this matter. It would be necessary to elucidate what kind of losses and damages would receive assistance (rehabilitation, health protection…), or how all this fits with the debate about the impossibility of repaying the debt or with international aid (humanitarian, disaster prevention, aid to the development). It will also have to be defined if a specific agency or office is created, or how it is integrated with the other funds of the Climate Change Convention (green fund or adaptation fund) that already involve specific investments in projects on the ground.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

While no new commitments or targets are expected to be added to those adopted in 2015, some may be renewed or strengthened. Participating countries are expected to explain how they will implement the Paris Agreement in their economies, showing progress in environmental legislation and policies. In this sense, special emphasis will be placed on adaptation to climate change, increasingly requested by vulnerable countries that are already suffering its consequences and need financial support to face them. However, in terms of emissions mitigation, it is possible that not much more will be achieved than is already approved.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

For his part, Carlos Zorrinho defends multilateralism in the Portuguese newspaper P\u00fablico<\/em><\/a> as the best weapon to face global challenges. Climate change, the COVID-19 pandemic, and the war in Ukraine are three global crises that have a common thread: the cause-effect chain that strongly correlates the place of origin of the crises \u2014mainly the most developed areas of the world\u2014 with the regions where the consequences of the crises are more serious, as is the case of the African continent and the islands of the Caribbean and the Pacific. Consequently, global crises require global cooperation and multilateralism is the answer since it is the only concrete way to face global crises such as climate change, pandemics, terrorism, poverty, human rights, or the impact of the effects of a conflict. A globalized world paves the way for the development of a newly strengthened multilateralism based on an association of equals. Without this, the risk is not only a new Cold War but also a world increasingly divided into blocs between those who have the means to deal with global crises and those who will have to suffer the consequences. Multilateralism, however, must presuppose a coordinated and shared action to guarantee adequate investments and means to transform dependence into interdependence. In this sense, the Joint Parliamentary Assembly between African, Caribbean and Pacific countries and the European Union (APP ACP-UE<\/a>) stands out, a unique case as it is the only multilateral institution that brings together legislators from different continents, each of them bringing different experiences and mandates, but all united by the feeling that common and global challenges can only be faced together.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

In The Conversation<\/em><\/a>, F\u00e9lix Valdivieso highlights that India has unseated Great Britain, its former metropolis, as the world’s fifth economic power. The author points out that there are a lot of talks that the new world order is multipolar, but the reality is that the bipolar inertia of the Cold War has not yet been broken and practically everything is settled between China and the United States. It is in this context that Indian soft power and its aura of a non-aligned country are gaining importance in addressing the international challenges we face. Since Modi came to power in 2014, India has shown greater assertiveness in the way it interacts in international politics, departing from its traditional more moderate line. This is due to the clear political and economic indications that both its economy and the country, in general, are in an upward phase. India, a country that has nuclear power in China’s backyard, may be able to change the rules of the international geopolitical board, but it still needs to define better what kind of soft power it wants to exercise. Indian development is following in the footsteps of Chinese development and Modi has created Made in India, accompanied by a battery of economic measures with all kinds of subsidies and incentives, intended to wrest from China the title of a global manufacturing hub. A good example of this is Apple\u2019s recent announcement that it will start producing its iPhone 14 in India, which represents a radical change in the company’s production policy. India is growing fast and technologically its nerve centers, Chennai, Hyderabad, and Bangalore, are at the forefront of technological advances in Asia.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The editorial of Le Monde<\/em><\/a> <\/em>reflects on the results of the elections in Israel and warns that they have led to a historic advance of the Jewish supremacists in the Parliament and never before had Israel been so tilted to the right. Its most radical component, which claims Jewish supremacy, had never been so powerful and its influence is probably greater than the simple number of its deputies and already claims strategic positions within the future government. And that’s bad news. For Israeli democracy first, then for the Palestinians, but also for many of Israel’s allies, who have long maintained close and empathetic relations with a community of values. The return to the post of Prime Minister of Binyamin Netanyahu trapped for more than two years in a trial for corruption, fraud, and abuse of power is itself a symbol and could be accompanied by a dangerous weakening of the rule of law. Everything contributes to it: the desire for revenge on the future head of government and the ideological turn claimed by this extreme right which has become the third political force in the country and which despises the principle of balance of powers. This new face of Israel, if confirmed in the composition of the next government, should force its Western allies to re-examine their relations with the Jewish state. Not even to note that his silence on the continuation of settlements in the West Bank and the daily disregard for the most basic rights of the Palestinians has done nothing but strengthen the most extreme Israeli positions and hasten the burial of the two-state solution.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

For his part, Bernardo Guti\u00e9rrez states in CTXT<\/em><\/a> that after his victory in the presidential elections, Lula will have to face the challenge of recovering the functioning of democratic institutions, reconciling Brazilians, balancing the economy, protecting the environment, and restoring Brazil’s role in the world. The first challenge will be to restore the basic functioning of democracy. The task is arduous, but not impossible. Lula returns with authority. His more than 60 million votes made him the most-voted president in history and in addition Jair Bolsonaro is the only president not to have won re-election since the restoration of democracy. Although many analysts highlight the difficulties that Lula will have to deal with a conservative Congress and Senate, as head of the Executive has the possibility of quickly restoring the functioning of such vital institutions as the Prosecutor’s Office, the Public Ministry, or the police forces that depend on the central government (the PGR and the Federal Police). However, the main difficulty that Lula faces is not governability, nor the delicate economic situation \u2013global instability, debts incurred due to electoral measures, inflation, and high interest rates\u2013 but the division of Brazil. Indeed, the country is deeply divided even regionally, as the map of the electoral results shows, and whatever happens with Jair Bolsonaro, the movement will not disappear. Everything indicates that during the next four years there will be fierce opposition to Lula’s Government. In Congress, in the Senate, in the networks, and in the streets, Bolsonarianism will keep the structure of dirty war activated for the elections of 2018. The permanent mobilization will revolve around moral issues. And Bolsonaro’s anti-system narrative, which he managed to maintain even as president, will be reinforced. Ultimately, the equation that Lula faces is complex. The recipe with which he came to power twenty years ago seems to have expired. Overcoming the anti-political wave of discredit on the institutions that Bolsonaro brought up takes time. Some voices are calling for a new democratic agreement, which seems unfeasible in the short term.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Regarding the war in Ukraine, Ivan Krastev emphasizes in The New York Times<\/em><\/a> that despite the impacts of the war in Ukraine on the global energy, food, and political crises, this war will not last forever and it will be in peace that they will be the tensions in Europe are evident. He points out that there are three different camps when it comes to thinking about how to end the war: the realists, the optimists, and the revisionists. The representatives of each of these fields are among politicians and citizens of almost all European countries, but they are not equally represented everywhere: in Western and Southern Europe the debate is mostly between realists and optimists; in Ukraine and some Eastern European countries, between optimists and revisionists. In this context, geography and history best explain the differences. Western Europeans primarily fear nuclear war while Eastern Europeans fear the return of the Russian sphere of influence to their countries in the event of Ukraine’s defeat. The so-called realists believe that the goal of Europe should be that Russia does not win, Ukraine does not lose and the war does not spread. Realists rightly see the current conflict as more dangerous than the Soviet-American confrontation during the Cold War, because the Cold War was a confrontation between two forces that both believed history was on their side. The West now faces a leader with an apocalyptic mindset, haunted by the specter of a world without Russia. The second camp is the optimists who see the end of the war not only with the victory of Ukraine but with the end of Vladimir Putin. They argue that Russia’s military defeat and the lingering effects of sanctions are clear signs that the Russian president’s time is running out, and they support President Zelensky’s refusal to negotiate. Proponents of this option argue that only unfettered support for Ukraine can achieve lasting peace. The third group, the revisionists, see the war in Ukraine not as President Putin’s war but as the Russians’ war. For them, the only guarantee of peace and stability in Europe after the end of the war would be the irreversible weakening of Russia, including the disintegration of the Russian Federation. Each of these schools of thought has its detractors. Critics of the realist approach rightly insist that realism was already tried in 2015 after Russia invaded eastern Ukraine and did not work. The optimists, on the other hand, suffer from overconfidence and believe that Putin’s days in power are numbered. And the revisionists’ calls to dismantle Russia could have the unintended effect of encouraging Russians to continue fighting this war in order to ensure their country’s survival. Ultimately, Krastev concludes that the real risk to European unity is differing opinions on how the war should end, rather than Putin’s nuclear threats. While a common framework for resolving the war is urgently needed, the divergent narratives and visions of the war’s desired end are so emotionally and morally charged that any agreement will be complex.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Also in CTXT<\/em><\/a> journal, Volodymyr Ishchenko carries out an interesting analysis of the socio-economic implications of the war. The announcement of a partial mobilization in Russia has broken an informal social contract between Putin and the Russian population where the Russian president offered a not-too-high but acceptable standard of living and stability in exchange for political passivity. Now many analysts consider that the decreed mobilization changes everything. Soon the corpses of poorly trained soldiers, sent as cannon fodder to the battlefield to stop the Ukrainian counter-offensive, will begin to be returned to their families, sparking public outrage. According to this reasoning, this, together with the economic impact of the sanctions, could lead to protests that would generate further repression. However, Ishchenko believes that increasing repression is not the only option for Putin and that his regime is not based exclusively on coercion. To understand the other course that the situation could take, it is necessary to observe the economic and political dimensions of recent events. In declaring the partial mobilization, Putin has emphasized that the conscripted Russian soldiers would receive the same pay as the contracted soldiers who have so far been the backbone of Russian troops in Ukraine. That means they’ll be paid at least $3,000 a month depending on military rank, bonuses, insurance, and a generous welfare package. This is five to six times the average salary in Russia. To this must be added the flow of money destined for the reconstruction of Mariupol and other Ukrainian cities in the recently annexed regions of southeastern Ukraine. Workers are currently being hired from all over Russia for the reconstruction process and are being offered double what they earn in their own country. There are also a lot of funds flowing into the military industry as a whole. As the demand for weapons and ammunition has increased significantly, the number of workers, as well as wages, has also grown. The growth of the military industry offsets, at least in part, the decline in production in industries that depend on Western components and that suffer from the sanctions. In other sectors, employees who have been recruited by the army have left vacant jobs that have been filled by new workers, which has reduced unemployment. If we look at all these changes, we see that something like military Keynesianism is taking shape in Russia. Millions of Russians mobilized to fight in Ukraine, employed in reconstruction or military industry, or involved in the suppression of unrest in the occupied territories and at home, or family members, have become direct beneficiaries of the war. This supposes, among other things, the appearance of a positive feedback cycle that did not exist before. The Russian ruling elite started the war driven by their own interests and only got the passive support of the population. Now this redistribution of state wealth through military effort is creating a new basis for more active and conscious support within a significant sector of Russian society, which now has a direct material interest in the conflict. The crucial question is how long this kind of military Keynesianism will be sustainable. Classical positive feedback loops were based on technologically advanced industrial production. Conquered territories and colonies provided new markets and supplied the raw materials and cheap labor to further expand production. It is highly questionable that Ukraine can contribute something similar to the Russian economy, while the long-term impact of the sanctions may paralyze the Russian economy. This makes the flow of petrodollars the main source of financing to buy loyalties, which however depends on a successful reorientation and sufficient growth of the economies of China and India to sustain the demand for Russian energy resources.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Regarding Catalan politics, the criminal court of the Supreme Court has annulled the sentence of the Supreme Court of Justice of Catalonia (TSJC), of October 10, 2020, which condemned four members of the Parliament table for disobedience by having promoted the laws of October 1, 2017. The Supreme Court affirms that “the right to an impartial court has been violated” since two magistrates of the trial court had expressed in previous resolutions an explicit position on issues that constituted then the essential object of the judgment. The TSJC sentenced the four members of the sovereigntist Bureau to 1 year and 8 months of disqualification and to pay a fine of 30,000 euros each for the crime of disobedience to the Constitutional Court, which ordered them not to act or take any action to promote the Catalan Independence Referendum. Now the trial will have to be repeated with a new court.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Regarding European affairs, Alexandra Brzozowski and Oliver Noyan highlight in Euractiv<\/em><\/a> that at the beginning of November six Western Balkan leaders signed three agreements within the framework of the Berlin Process<\/a>. This sent positive signals ahead of a crucial summit that will take place in Albania in December. German Chancellor Olaf Scholz, Ursula von der Leyen, and Charles Michel met with the leaders of Serbia, Kosovo, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Montenegro, North Macedonia, and Albania to preside over the signing of the agreements. The forum started in 2014 under the former German Chancellor Angela Merkel and aims to foster rapprochement between the six states of the Western Balkans and the EU and promote integration between the states of the region. In their joint statement, the participants agreed to hold the next summit of the Berlin Process 2023 in Albania. The country will also host the next Western Balkans Summit on December 9, 2022. After two years of intense negotiations, the six countries reached agreements that will facilitate the free movement of citizens throughout the region and mutual recognition of the professional qualifications of doctors, dentists, and architects. The agreements are not only a step forward for regional integration but have particular significance in the context of current tensions between Belgrade and Pristina. In this sense, Scholz stated that he hopes that the new mutual recognition agreement will pave the way for greater reconciliation between the two countries and that it is time to overcome regional conflicts and accelerate the process of normalizing relations between Kosovo and Serbia. The chancellor added that the war in Ukraine has made the resolution of conflicts in the Balkans even more necessary to preserve the freedom and security of Europe. On the other hand, the EU executive has announced an energy support package of 500 million euros for the region, since the increase in energy prices caused by the war and the beginning of winter hit hard this part of the continent.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

For his part, John Curtice underlines in The Conversation<\/a><\/em> that in its new White Paper<\/a> on the economics of independence, the Scottish Government has made it clear that re-joining the EU is central to its vision of how Scotland could prosper outside the UK. Rather than simply being a question of whether Scotland should be part of the UK, First Minister Nicola Sturgeon is framing the country’s future as outside the UK, but within the EU, rather than within the UK but outside the EU. Any future referendum on independence would therefore deal with both Brexit and Scotland’s relationship with the rest of the United Kingdom. This is no surprise as in the June 2016 referendum on leaving the EU, 62% of Scots voted to Remain and current polls<\/a> suggest that support for joining the EU is now even higher. After the Brexit referendum, some voters began to revise their attitudes towards independence in the face of the decision to leave the EU. As the SNP anticipated, voters who had voted No in 2014 and Remain in 2016 have switched to supporting independence. But it is worth noting that the changes are also happening in the opposite direction as some who had voted Yes in 2014 but Leave in 2016. In 2017, the Scottish Social Attitudes poll found that 49% of those who were in favor of remaining in the EU were also in favor of independence, compared to just 41% who supported the Leave. Since then, the realization of Brexit has seen the gap between Remain and Leave supporters widen even further. In the Scottish Social Attitudes<\/a> <\/em>survey conducted at the end of 2021, just over a quarter (26%) of those who currently support Leave said they would vote Yes on independence while two-thirds (67%) of supporters of Remain would. Unlike eight years ago, however, attitudes towards the EU are now an integral part of the constitutional debate among voters. None of this, of course, necessarily means Scotland is ready to vote yes to independence in the event of another referendum but it does help explain why Sturgeon is keen for the constitutional debate to also be about Scotland’s relationship with the EU, and not just about its links with the UK.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The editorial of Pol\u00edtica&Prosa<\/em><\/a> journal warns that we have been talking about the crisis of liberal democracies for some time, well represented by the increase in citizens’ mistrust of institutions and growing electoral abstentionism. After what has been experienced in the last two decades and the acceleration marked by the pandemic and the war in Ukraine, it is already a no-brainer to say that democracies are going through a difficult time. The recent electoral successes of the extreme right in Sweden and Italy demonstrate this convincingly. Unlike the authoritarianism of the past or the totalitarianism of the 20th century, these “new” electoral autocracies are not presented as anti-democratic. They don’t stage coups d’\u00e9tat or go all out using street violence, as was the case with the March on Rome, which is exactly one hundred years old. On the contrary, Orb\u00e1n, Morawiecki, Trump, Meloni, and also Putin, Erdogan, Duterte, or Modi, present themselves as democrats and remember that they won a free election. The point is that democracy is not just about being able to vote in an election. Democracy, in its liberal meaning, as it has been forged in more than two centuries of history, means also, and above all, the existence of independent institutions that control the government and guarantee rights. Democracy implies the separation of powers, free information, freedom of opinion, and pluralism of ideas. The real risk is not simply a chronic malfunction of democratic systems or an inability to bring about improvements, but their progressive emptying and imminent demise. Electoral autocracies show us in all their rawness the mortal danger that liberal democracies live in.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

In this sense, many factors explain the current crisis of democracy, and Jos\u00e9 Pacheco Pereira argues in P\u00fablico<\/em><\/a> that the most important is related to the damage caused to the quality of life and the dignity of millions of people in the countries where there are democracies In dictatorships, this process does not take place, because in Russia, in Iran, in Hong Kong, there is a democratic aspiration to get out of dictatorship or autocracy. It is therefore in the Western democracies where, to varying degrees, this crisis exists: the USA, Brazil, and the European Union. The two upsetting moments we are experiencing \u2013 the consequences of the pandemic and the war in Ukraine \u2013 have accelerated the process, but it has been a long time since an economy focused on the rich, unable to face exclusion and inequality, whether of workers or refugees, had done nothing but increase inequalities. On the other hand, a set of social phenomena have created sources of poverty, not only material but they have led to the loss of hope and a sense of loss of dignity with the changes in the labor market. Pacheco Pereira emphasizes that the discontent is directed against the political class of the democracies, in particular, the governing parties, weakened by corruption, careerism, and incompetence that has generated a significant increase in indifference towards politics and institutions. This indifference destroys the link of representation, harms democracy, and is real manna for the populists and their discourse of resentment. One of the aspects at the heart of the current crisis of democracy is precisely a growing deterioration of cultural factors, of the worldview, which implies an ideology of democracy, that is, knowing what to do and, perhaps more importantly, what don’t do This implies education, knowledge, willingness to know, read, listen and see, seek information, recognize misinformation, speak clearly when necessary and be cautious when necessary, recognizing the value of privacy. Characters like Trump, Bolsonaro, and many others owe part of their success to the argumentative indigence, personal arrogance, militant anti-intellectualism, religious hypocrisy, masculinity, violence, and aggression that allow the identification of many people in the same movement of power and exclusion.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

In the economic field, Jamie Martin considers the future of the International Monetary Fund in The Guardian<\/em><\/a> <\/em>in the new context of simultaneous crises that are emerging. The world economy faces the possibility of experiencing one of the worst debt crises in recent decades, which threatens deep recessions, political instability, and years of lost growth. At the same time, the increase in extreme weather phenomena (more powerful hurricanes, recurring droughts) makes life even more difficult for countries that already devote a large part of their income to repaying foreign debt. In this context, the IMF has become more involved than ever in rescuing insolvent countries. In recent months, the amount of its emergency loans has reached a record high, as a growing number of states such as Bangladesh, Egypt, Ghana, and Tunisia have been forced to resort to them. At the same time, however, many countries consider the IMF to be too dominant, or even neo-colonial and look elsewhere for help. Indeed, in return for its assistance, the IMF typically forces governments to do what they find most difficult: cut public spending, raise taxes, and implement reforms designed to lower their debt-to-GDP ratios, such as cutting fuel or food subsidies. Unsurprisingly, governments are often reluctant to take such steps. It’s not just that reforms often leave citizens worse off and politicians less popular. National pride is also at stake. Having to bow to the demands of an institution dominated by foreign governments can be seen as a humiliation and an admission of internal dysfunction and bad governance. Moreover, after reaching the height of its power in the 1990s, when it became synonymous with the excesses of neoliberal globalization, the IMF has faced increasing resistance. Although it is still the only institution that can guarantee assistance to almost any country under extreme financial stress, the decline of US power, the emergence of alternative lenders, and its dominant position have left it in an anomalous position. It is much needed and unappreciated, enormously powerful, and often ineffective in getting states to accept its terms. Ultimately, if the predictions are correct and the world is entering a prolonged period of economic turmoil, this will only increase the need for some sort of global lender of last resort.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

For its part, The Economist<\/em><\/a> <\/em>points to the need for the African continent to use more energy to get out of endemic poverty. Indeed, whereas in the rich world the great energy challenge is how to make the supply more sustainable, in Africa the problem is how to generate more energy. Average consumption per person in sub-Saharan Africa \u2013 excluding South Africa \u2013 is only 185 kilowatt-hours (kWh) per year, compared to around 6,500 kWh in Europe and 12,700 kWh in the US. Low energy consumption is a consequence of poverty but it is also a cause. If Africa wants to get rich it will have to use a lot more energy, including fossil fuels. However, its efforts to do so put it on a collision course with rich countries. The rich world imports fossil fuels for its use, while restricting public funding for domestic African gas projects. Without a doubt, clean energy technologies are a great opportunity for the continent. They are already the main sources of energy for 22 of the 54 countries in Africa. But to expect that Africa can rely solely on renewable energy to increase consumption is na\u00efve. For example, electricity, a source of energy that is not within the reach of some 590 million people \u2013 that is, approximately half of sub-Saharan Africans \u2013 is unsafe and expensive. If we calculated prices based on purchasing power, we would see how households in many African countries would pay higher rates than those in the OECD. On the other hand, Africa has 18% of the world’s population but receives less than 5% of the world’s investment in energy. The IEA estimates that Africa’s total capital expenditure on the energy between 2026 and 2030 should almost double what it was between 2016 and 2020, while investment in clean energy should multiply yes by six All this seems very ambitious given that African public finances are in a very poor state. Twenty-two countries have serious debt difficulties or are at high risk, according to the IMF. Ultimately, since many Africans are poor, they are much more vulnerable to the harms of global warming, such as droughts, disease, and higher food prices. For much of Africa, the best way to adapt to a warming planet is to become rich enough to deal with its consequences. Denying Africa cheap and reliable energy will make this task much more difficult while doing almost nothing to slow global warming.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

At the same time, Fatih Birol, executive director of the International Energy Agency<\/a> (IEA), says that the invasion of Ukraine has changed and will change energy markets and policies for decades to come. The energy crisis triggered by the war is in many cases giving a short-term boost to fossil fuels. In Europe, more coal has been burned, for example, because natural gas prices have been very high. But he considers that it is likely to be a temporary phenomenon since the crisis is also driving important structural changes to accelerate the transition towards clean energies. IEA data suggests that many governments are responding to economically damaging spikes in fossil fuel prices by doubling down on clean energy technologies. The US Inflation Reduction Act, the EU’s Fit for 55<\/a> package and the REPowerEU<\/a> plan, Japan’s green transformation program, and ambitious clean energy targets in China and India are all contributing. Birol stresses that the economic case for affordable clean technologies is becoming increasingly compelling. Solar and wind power are the cheapest options for new electrical installations in most regions of the world, even without taking into account today’s exceptionally high coal and gas prices. He adds that safety concerns are also increasingly driving the transition to clean energy. The invasion of Ukraine and the subsequent use of gas supplies to pressure Europe show the risks of dependence on fossil fuel imports. In this sense, clean and energy-efficient technologies such as wind, solar, electric vehicles, and heat pumps would allow countries to produce more energy domestically and reduce the need to import fuel. At the same time, new risks are emerging for energy security. Countries need a broad and diverse supply of critical minerals and manufacturing supply chains for technologies such as solar panels and electric vehicle batteries. Still, amid the current geopolitical turmoil, Birol sees a real risk of rifts emerging around energy and climate between some advanced and developing economies, which could create damaging fault lines worldwide. To prevent these divisions from taking root, the world’s major economies must work to address their causes. First, they need to make sure that Russia’s role in triggering the current energy crisis is well understood by everyone. There is a false narrative circulating that clean energy and climate policies are to blame. Second, the rich world must do much more to enable emerging and developing economies, especially those in Africa, to massively scale up clean energy technologies. Third, rich countries should immediately fulfill promises made to the poorest on climate finance. At COP15 in Copenhagen in 2009, they pledged to raise $100 billion annually by 2020 to help developing countries adapt to climate change, but this pledge has yet to be fulfilled. The ongoing COP 27 is an important opportunity but if the leading economies do not build bridges with developing economies, or if they adopt a too prescriptive approach, they risk widening the divisions.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Finally, Jie Gao analyzes in The Diplomat<\/em><\/a> <\/em>President Xi Jinping’s speech at the 20th Congress of the Communist Party and points out that compared to his report five years ago, Xi devoted an entire section to technology development and talent management. Among the report’s 15 sections, five of them incorporate technology, including sections on the CCP’s new missions, economic development, science and technology, education strategy, homeland security, and military and defense. On the direction of development, Xi abandons the market-oriented system for technological innovations, which he proposed in 2017, and ordered the scientific community to meet national strategic demands. This implies potentially more consolidated government efforts to guide \u2013and enforce\u2013 Chinese researchers to work on projects that Beijing sees as priorities. Based on previous documents, these projects in the field of AI usually include the underlying technologies for basic electronic devices, high-end generic chips, and basic software, which are chronic bottleneck problems for China. To achieve technological self-sufficiency, Xi considers talents to be the main resource. In addition to fostering bright minds at home through better education, China will also increase its efforts to attract talent from abroad. China has already developed several programs, such as the flagship Thousand Talents Program<\/em><\/a> launched in 2008 to recruit foreign researchers and engineers. The CCP also recognizes the importance of international cooperation in advancing research and development (R&D), as Xi proposes expanding scientific and technological exchanges and cooperation with other countries. In fact, despite the geopolitical unrest, China and the United States have generated the largest amount of transnational collaborations in AI publications between 2010 and 2021, almost three times more than between the United States and the United Kingdom, the second most productive couple. Other measures to facilitate China’s technological development that Xi mentions in the report include strengthening intellectual property protection, establishing scientific innovation centers, diversifying investment sources, the reform of the mechanisms for the allocation of funds, and the improvement of the leadership of the private sector in R&D. In short, the report of the XX Congress is essential to understand the political approach of the PCC in the next five to ten years. A close look at the report compared to the previous version reflects Xi’s confidence in the critical role of technology in driving China’s development and achieving the great rejuvenation of the Chinese nation. As a promising emerging technology, AI has received significant attention from the CCP, and this report continues this trend and promises more efforts to achieve breakthroughs in core technologies with high-quality talents through coordinated state support in the face of US-led competition. Finally, the report also involves integrating the army’s AI into its military capabilities in a more practical way.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Montserrat Viv\u00f3 and Mart\u00ed Serra, trainee students at the CETC, participated in the elaboration of this issue of the Diari de les Idees<\/em>.<\/strong><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

The questions raised by the withdrawal of Russian troops from the city of Kherson \u2013 the main gift for Ukraine after almost nine months of the war \u2013, the Midterm elections in the United States, and the celebration of COP27 in Egypt.  The danger of the so-called “electoral autocracies” for liberal democracy; multilateralism as a strategy to face global challenges, the future of the International Monetary Fund in a context of simultaneous crises, and China’s ambitious plans for the development of Artificial Intelligence are some of the topics highlighted in this new edition of the Diari de les Idees. In\u2026<\/p>\n","protected":false},"featured_media":71129,"template":"","category_newspaper":[454],"segment":[],"subject":[],"class_list":["post-60774","newspaper","type-newspaper","status-publish","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category_newspaper-454"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"\nDiari de les idees 72 – IDEES<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/revistaidees.cat\/en\/analisis\/diari-de-les-idees\/diari-de-les-idees-72\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Diari de les idees 72 – IDEES\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"The questions raised by the withdrawal of Russian troops from the city of Kherson \u2013 the main gift for Ukraine after almost nine months of the war \u2013, the Midterm elections in the United States, and the celebration of COP27 in Egypt.  The danger of the so-called “electoral autocracies” for liberal democracy; multilateralism as a strategy to face global challenges, the future of the International Monetary Fund in a context of simultaneous crises, and China’s ambitious plans for the development of Artificial Intelligence are some of the topics highlighted in this new edition of the Diari de les Idees. In\u2026\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:url\" content=\"https:\/\/revistaidees.cat\/en\/analisis\/diari-de-les-idees\/diari-de-les-idees-72\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:site_name\" content=\"IDEES\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:modified_time\" content=\"2022-12-30T10:26:17+00:00\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:image\" content=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/revistaidees.cat\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/12\/COP27.webp?fit=1024%2C768&ssl=1\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:width\" content=\"1024\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:height\" content=\"768\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:type\" content=\"image\/webp\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:card\" content=\"summary_large_image\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:label1\" content=\"Est. reading time\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data1\" content=\"36 minutes\" \/>\n<script type=\"application\/ld+json\" class=\"yoast-schema-graph\">{\"@context\":\"https:\\\/\\\/schema.org\",\"@graph\":[{\"@type\":\"WebPage\",\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/revistaidees.cat\\\/en\\\/analisis\\\/diari-de-les-idees\\\/diari-de-les-idees-72\\\/\",\"url\":\"https:\\\/\\\/revistaidees.cat\\\/en\\\/analisis\\\/diari-de-les-idees\\\/diari-de-les-idees-72\\\/\",\"name\":\"Diari de les idees 72 – IDEES\",\"isPartOf\":{\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/revistaidees.cat\\\/#website\"},\"primaryImageOfPage\":{\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/revistaidees.cat\\\/en\\\/analisis\\\/diari-de-les-idees\\\/diari-de-les-idees-72\\\/#primaryimage\"},\"image\":{\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/revistaidees.cat\\\/en\\\/analisis\\\/diari-de-les-idees\\\/diari-de-les-idees-72\\\/#primaryimage\"},\"thumbnailUrl\":\"https:\\\/\\\/i0.wp.com\\\/revistaidees.cat\\\/wp-content\\\/uploads\\\/2022\\\/11\\\/Waves_Touching_The_Clouds.jpg?fit=4000%2C2459&ssl=1\",\"datePublished\":\"2022-11-17T04:28:00+00:00\",\"dateModified\":\"2022-12-30T10:26:17+00:00\",\"breadcrumb\":{\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/revistaidees.cat\\\/en\\\/analisis\\\/diari-de-les-idees\\\/diari-de-les-idees-72\\\/#breadcrumb\"},\"inLanguage\":\"en-US\",\"potentialAction\":[{\"@type\":\"ReadAction\",\"target\":[\"https:\\\/\\\/revistaidees.cat\\\/en\\\/analisis\\\/diari-de-les-idees\\\/diari-de-les-idees-72\\\/\"]}]},{\"@type\":\"ImageObject\",\"inLanguage\":\"en-US\",\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/revistaidees.cat\\\/en\\\/analisis\\\/diari-de-les-idees\\\/diari-de-les-idees-72\\\/#primaryimage\",\"url\":\"https:\\\/\\\/i0.wp.com\\\/revistaidees.cat\\\/wp-content\\\/uploads\\\/2022\\\/11\\\/Waves_Touching_The_Clouds.jpg?fit=4000%2C2459&ssl=1\",\"contentUrl\":\"https:\\\/\\\/i0.wp.com\\\/revistaidees.cat\\\/wp-content\\\/uploads\\\/2022\\\/11\\\/Waves_Touching_The_Clouds.jpg?fit=4000%2C2459&ssl=1\",\"width\":4000,\"height\":2459},{\"@type\":\"BreadcrumbList\",\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/revistaidees.cat\\\/en\\\/analisis\\\/diari-de-les-idees\\\/diari-de-les-idees-72\\\/#breadcrumb\",\"itemListElement\":[{\"@type\":\"ListItem\",\"position\":1,\"name\":\"Inici\",\"item\":\"https:\\\/\\\/revistaidees.cat\\\/en\\\/\"},{\"@type\":\"ListItem\",\"position\":2,\"name\":\"Diari de les idees\",\"item\":\"https:\\\/\\\/revistaidees.cat\\\/analisis\\\/diari-de-les-idees\\\/\"},{\"@type\":\"ListItem\",\"position\":3,\"name\":\"Diari de les idees 72\"}]},{\"@type\":\"WebSite\",\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/revistaidees.cat\\\/#website\",\"url\":\"https:\\\/\\\/revistaidees.cat\\\/\",\"name\":\"IDEES\",\"description\":\"Contemporary global issues\",\"potentialAction\":[{\"@type\":\"SearchAction\",\"target\":{\"@type\":\"EntryPoint\",\"urlTemplate\":\"https:\\\/\\\/revistaidees.cat\\\/?s={search_term_string}\"},\"query-input\":{\"@type\":\"PropertyValueSpecification\",\"valueRequired\":true,\"valueName\":\"search_term_string\"}}],\"inLanguage\":\"en-US\"}]}<\/script>\n<!-- \/ Yoast SEO plugin. -->","yoast_head_json":{"title":"Diari de les idees 72 – IDEES","robots":{"index":"index","follow":"follow","max-snippet":"max-snippet:-1","max-image-preview":"max-image-preview:large","max-video-preview":"max-video-preview:-1"},"canonical":"https:\/\/revistaidees.cat\/en\/analisis\/diari-de-les-idees\/diari-de-les-idees-72\/","og_locale":"en_US","og_type":"article","og_title":"Diari de les idees 72 – IDEES","og_description":"The questions raised by the withdrawal of Russian troops from the city of Kherson \u2013 the main gift for Ukraine after almost nine months of the war \u2013, the Midterm elections in the United States, and the celebration of COP27 in Egypt.  The danger of the so-called “electoral autocracies” for liberal democracy; multilateralism as a strategy to face global challenges, the future of the International Monetary Fund in a context of simultaneous crises, and China’s ambitious plans for the development of Artificial Intelligence are some of the topics highlighted in this new edition of the Diari de les Idees. In\u2026","og_url":"https:\/\/revistaidees.cat\/en\/analisis\/diari-de-les-idees\/diari-de-les-idees-72\/","og_site_name":"IDEES","article_modified_time":"2022-12-30T10:26:17+00:00","og_image":[{"width":1024,"height":768,"url":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/revistaidees.cat\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/12\/COP27.webp?fit=1024%2C768&ssl=1","type":"image\/webp"}],"twitter_card":"summary_large_image","twitter_misc":{"Est. reading time":"36 minutes"},"schema":{"@context":"https:\/\/schema.org","@graph":[{"@type":"WebPage","@id":"https:\/\/revistaidees.cat\/en\/analisis\/diari-de-les-idees\/diari-de-les-idees-72\/","url":"https:\/\/revistaidees.cat\/en\/analisis\/diari-de-les-idees\/diari-de-les-idees-72\/","name":"Diari de les idees 72 – IDEES","isPartOf":{"@id":"https:\/\/revistaidees.cat\/#website"},"primaryImageOfPage":{"@id":"https:\/\/revistaidees.cat\/en\/analisis\/diari-de-les-idees\/diari-de-les-idees-72\/#primaryimage"},"image":{"@id":"https:\/\/revistaidees.cat\/en\/analisis\/diari-de-les-idees\/diari-de-les-idees-72\/#primaryimage"},"thumbnailUrl":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/revistaidees.cat\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/11\/Waves_Touching_The_Clouds.jpg?fit=4000%2C2459&ssl=1","datePublished":"2022-11-17T04:28:00+00:00","dateModified":"2022-12-30T10:26:17+00:00","breadcrumb":{"@id":"https:\/\/revistaidees.cat\/en\/analisis\/diari-de-les-idees\/diari-de-les-idees-72\/#breadcrumb"},"inLanguage":"en-US","potentialAction":[{"@type":"ReadAction","target":["https:\/\/revistaidees.cat\/en\/analisis\/diari-de-les-idees\/diari-de-les-idees-72\/"]}]},{"@type":"ImageObject","inLanguage":"en-US","@id":"https:\/\/revistaidees.cat\/en\/analisis\/diari-de-les-idees\/diari-de-les-idees-72\/#primaryimage","url":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/revistaidees.cat\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/11\/Waves_Touching_The_Clouds.jpg?fit=4000%2C2459&ssl=1","contentUrl":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/revistaidees.cat\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/11\/Waves_Touching_The_Clouds.jpg?fit=4000%2C2459&ssl=1","width":4000,"height":2459},{"@type":"BreadcrumbList","@id":"https:\/\/revistaidees.cat\/en\/analisis\/diari-de-les-idees\/diari-de-les-idees-72\/#breadcrumb","itemListElement":[{"@type":"ListItem","position":1,"name":"Inici","item":"https:\/\/revistaidees.cat\/en\/"},{"@type":"ListItem","position":2,"name":"Diari de les idees","item":"https:\/\/revistaidees.cat\/analisis\/diari-de-les-idees\/"},{"@type":"ListItem","position":3,"name":"Diari de les idees 72"}]},{"@type":"WebSite","@id":"https:\/\/revistaidees.cat\/#website","url":"https:\/\/revistaidees.cat\/","name":"IDEES","description":"Contemporary global issues","potentialAction":[{"@type":"SearchAction","target":{"@type":"EntryPoint","urlTemplate":"https:\/\/revistaidees.cat\/?s={search_term_string}"},"query-input":{"@type":"PropertyValueSpecification","valueRequired":true,"valueName":"search_term_string"}}],"inLanguage":"en-US"}]}},"jetpack_sharing_enabled":true,"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/revistaidees.cat\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/newspaper\/60774","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/revistaidees.cat\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/newspaper"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/revistaidees.cat\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/newspaper"}],"version-history":[{"count":6,"href":"https:\/\/revistaidees.cat\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/newspaper\/60774\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":60791,"href":"https:\/\/revistaidees.cat\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/newspaper\/60774\/revisions\/60791"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/revistaidees.cat\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/71129"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/revistaidees.cat\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=60774"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category_newspaper","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/revistaidees.cat\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/category_newspaper?post=60774"},{"taxonomy":"segment","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/revistaidees.cat\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/segment?post=60774"},{"taxonomy":"subject","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/revistaidees.cat\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/subject?post=60774"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}