{"id":60811,"date":"2022-10-20T08:53:35","date_gmt":"2022-10-20T06:53:35","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/revistaidees.cat\/analisis\/diari-de-les-idees\/diari-de-les-idees-70\/"},"modified":"2022-12-30T13:09:36","modified_gmt":"2022-12-30T11:09:36","slug":"diari-de-les-idees-70","status":"publish","type":"newspaper","link":"https:\/\/revistaidees.cat\/en\/analisis\/diari-de-les-idees\/diari-de-les-idees-70\/","title":{"rendered":"Diari de les idees 70"},"content":{"rendered":"\n

The new escalation of the war in Ukraine with Russia’s massive bombing of civilian targets and energy infrastructure as well as the establishment of martial law in the four annexed regions. The indispensable redefinition of the United Nations\u2019 role in prevention, management and conflict resolution. The 20th Congress of the Communist Party of China and the growing importance of the protest movement of women and civil society in Iran. The importance of the submarine cables in Sant Adri\u00e0 del Bes\u00f2s in the geopolitical position of Barcelona and, thus of Catalonia on the route of global data. The new phase of the international political economy entering an era of fragmentation and the advances occurring in the field of quantum computing are some of the outstanding topics treated in this edition of the Diari de les Idees<\/em>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

In the field of global affairs, Branko Milanovi\u0107 reviews in Social Europe<\/em><\/a> the loss of influence of the organization that used to be responsible for preserving world peace. He reports that, in the face of a war that has been going on for eight months between two countries with a combined population of 200 million inhabitants, and where one of the contenders possesses the largest arsenal of nuclear weapons and threatens to use them, the UN has been a mere spectator. It can be argued that the secretary-general and the secretariat are blocked by the great powers, as the five permanent members of the Security Council can veto any decision. However, the secretary-general has moral authority, if he chooses to use it. Regardless of the great powers, he can try to seat the conflicting sides at the negotiating table. He can set it up in Geneva, indicate the date on which he wants the conflicting parties to send their delegates, and wait. If some don’t show up, at least it will be visualized in a way who wants to continue the war and who doesn’t. The UN Secretary General is the only non-state actor in the world with this type of moral authority. Technically, the countries of the world have entrusted him with the task of preserving peace, or at least trying to. And everything indicates that it has failed. Still, Guterres is not to blame alone. Three factors explain the origins of the recent decline of the UN since the end of the Cold War. First, once the Soviet Union disappeared, the United States no longer wanted to be bogged down by any kind of global regulation, which in its eyes was unnecessary. Second, according to the ideologies of neoliberalism and the so-called end of history, dealing with world peace and security was no longer the most urgent task of the UN. Using the increasing number of NGOs, the new ideologues expanded the mission of the UN to many subsidiary issues in which it should never have been involved. Finally, as the mandate of the UN expanded, it became clear that the resources provided by governments were insufficient.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

At the same time, Abishur Prakash conducts in Politico<\/em><\/a> an analysis of the potential future evolution of geopolitics and argues that we are entering in a new phase of international political economy. While in the past a globalized open economy was the norm, we are now entering an era of fragmentation. The creation of geopolitical and geo-economic blocs, whether formal – through alliances – or informal – with commercial ties – will affect the entire structure of international trade and balances of power. For instance, the Lithium Alliance, a cartel in the process of formation between Mexico, Chile, Argentina and Bolivia, the four countries that control most of the international production. The “Chip 4 alliance” between the USA, India, Japan and South Korea, a conglomerate created to contest the Chinese leadership in the production of microchips. Or, still, the I2U2, an alliance between the USA, Israel, India and the United Arab Emirates, to promote technological innovation. In short, the world is moving from a globalized international system to a fragmented one. This fragmentation will have a major impact on governments and businesses that will see their global supply chains affected. In this sense, the pandemic has been the first warning of the consequences that this new system will bring.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

For her part, Kristina Spohr highlights the new geopolitical importance that the entire Arctic region is acquiring because of climate change, in El Pa\u00eds<\/em><\/a>. The journal Nature Climate Change<\/em><\/a> published at the end of August a study carried out in Denmark and Greenland. Based on solid physical data, \u2013 satellite measurements of the shrinking Greenland ice sheet over the period 2000-2019 \u2013 the report offers the first realistic prediction of an inexorable rise in sea levels. These alarming new climate patterns are due to the fact that the Arctic region is warming much faster than the rest of the Earth: four times faster than the global average around the North Pole and seven times faster at the Barents Sea region. The fact that the Arctic has become a priority on the international agenda is not only due to the obvious effects of global warming, corroborated by scientific data. It is also because there are deep political interests at stake in the region. If we take the Arctic Council<\/a> as a reference, the region includes the United States, Canada, Denmark (Greenland and the Faroe Islands), Iceland, Norway, Sweden, Finland and Russia. There is therefore a serious danger that the tensions around Ukraine will spread to the North and strain the relations of the Arctic countries, a region which, since Mikhail Gorbachev’s so-called Murmansk initiative in 1987 \u2013 designed to create an international denuclearized zone \u2013 has been exceptionally peaceful and stable, and has been characterized by genuine collaboration, but also by the disarmament of the region. With the prospect of previously impenetrable routes opening up, the Arctic is emerging as a new frontier that offers opportunities to usher in a new wave of global resource extraction, trade and navigation. In addition, China has also revealed its global ambitions as an observer at the Arctic Council, with its pressures to internationalize access to the region and thus influence the governance of the Arctic for its own benefit through the project of the Polar Silk Road.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

In this sense, another outstanding aspect of current international affairs is the celebration of the 20th Congress of the Chinese Communist Party, which should serve to strengthen the power of President Xi Jinping and his policies. Zhuoran Li observes in The Diplomat<\/em><\/a> <\/em>that Xi is the first leader since 1978 not to see his power limited by the Communist Party’s powerful old guard. Historically, the old guard was made up of retired national leaders who remained politically influential through their networks of relationships and prot\u00e9g\u00e9s, and played the role of mediators in conflicts among elite members, forging consensus between factions and setting the direction of policy. They therefore played a vital role in personnel matters by promoting followers, appointing successors and even removing one or another candidate for top leadership. Thus, Xi’s consolidation of power was the result of a consensus among former senior leaders who believed that China needed a more presidential leader with centralized power to push through difficult reforms. As a result, they supported Xi’s consolidation of power and anti-corruption campaign. However, the old guard did not expect Xi’s power grab to go so far, and to eliminate all political rivals, regardless of factional origin. Without the control of the old guard, Xi could make the mistake of following extreme policies and exercising unchecked power. In this sense, nationalist foreign policies and the zero-COVID policy only confirm the reality of this danger. It is also shown by the fact that in the opening speech of the Congress, Xi Jinping insisted that China will never commit to abandoning the use of force when it comes to the Taiwan issue, that the resolution of the issue is an internal matter, and must be resolved solely by the Chinese people. He also stated that while adhering to the prospect of peaceful reunification, China reserves the option of taking all necessary measures, including armed intervention.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The women’s protest movement that has spread in Iran goes far beyond an anti-veil claim, as Emmanuel Razavi argues in Conflits<\/em><\/a>. The country is facing an economic, social and ecological crisis to which is added the brutality of an already very worn out regime. Thus, we are witnessing a protest movement on an unprecedented scale that crosses all layers of society, and reveals the rift that exists between a youth in search of modernity and a violent and discredited regime. Iranian women are the best placed to say the extent to which the regime has made the veil one of its ideological pillars. Their movement goes far beyond the simple refusal to wear the veil that symbolically imprisons them. Indeed, the country is experiencing an unprecedented economic crisis since 1979. More than half of the population lives below the poverty line. While part of the territory consists of arid plains with a semi-desert climate, the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, which controls more than 60% of the economy, have allowed the construction of numerous dams in exchange for substantial bribes. Added to this is the poor state of the wastewater treatment network and global warming. As a result of this policy disconnection from environmental issues, two thirds of the country are in a situation of water stress and in some provinces, entire populations no longer have access to drinking water. Even so, although the protest has an unprecedented scale, it is difficult to predict how the situation will evolve in the short term and with which actors, since Iran has few political opposition forces.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Regarding the war in Ukraine, Robbie Gramer and Jack Detsch point out in Foreign Policy<\/em><\/a> that the Kremlin is losing ground in the one regions where it seemed to find the most support. Despite their important economic and political ties to Russia, none of the five Central Asian countries \u2013 Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan and Uzbekistan \u2013 sided with Russia in the votes on UN resolutions condemning the invasion of Ukraine, which is one of the first indicators of the unrest caused in the region by Russia’s decision to go to war against another country in the former Soviet space. Other factors are also undermining Russia’s role as a regional security power. First, the military clashes between Armenia and Azerbaijan and the border tensions between Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan, with the total absence of reaction from Russia. In previous crises, Russia had used the Collective Security Treaty Organization to help quell such conflicts. This time it has not been like that as Moscow is too bogged down in Ukraine. Second, Central Asian countries rely heavily on Russia to sustain their weak economies through trade, seasonal labor, and remittances sent by emigrants. The invasion of Ukraine led to sanctions and export bans that have squeezed the Russian economy and, by extension, those of Central Asia as well. Although Central Asian economies have so far shown some surprising resilience, they are facing inflation and rising energy and food prices. Finally, the lousy recruitment campaign ordered by Putin has become a campaign to assemble Russia’s ethnic minorities \u2013 including Central Asian migrants \u2013 and use them as an army in Ukraine. The recruitment has also led to a mass exodus of Russian men, with tens of thousands leaving for Georgia, Armenia and Central Asian countries that are now facing a new form of economic and political strain generated by this massive influx. While Central Asia’s economic ties to Moscow won’t disappear overnight, and the region’s leaders are trying to keep a certain distance in the conflict, signals are being sent that they are none too pleased, and that Moscow’s influence in Central Asia is beginning to wane more and more.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

In Atlantico<\/em><\/a> Viatcheslav Avioutskii states that in the face of the increase in Russian defeats on the Ukrainian front, the internal struggles are multiplying around Vladimir Putin. For example, a few days ago the head of the Wagner paramilitary organization, Yevgeny Prigozhin, publicly criticized the Russian Minister of Defense, Sergei Shoigu, and in response one of his collaborators was arrested by the special services of the National Guard. Since the beginning of the invasion of Ukraine, the power of the FSB has grown to the detriment of the military and if things continue like this, the FSB could take over command of the war. This, would create a certain ideological deadlock in Russia, since it is the FSB that is pushing Putin the most towards a real break with the West. All in all, we cannot yet speak of an open war because, although Vladimir Putin has made many mistakes, he also knows how to manage the different clans that make up the Russian elite. When he took power in 2000, there were at least five clans: the so-called Family (close to Yeltsin), the oligarchs, the regional governors, the FSB and the liberals. Little by little, Putin brought order to it by using them against each other. As for the possibilities of a palace coup against Putin, Avioutskii claims that it is unlikely since the war that is taking place at the top of the state is not against Putin but between the different clans. And the most powerful is the FSB, whose ideology is even more extreme than Putin’s. In short, Vladimir Putin’s personal power is not in danger right now, although fissures in the power structure and clan relations could begin to shake him.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Bruno Tertrais analyzes in the magazine Le Grand Continent<\/em><\/a> the dangers of nuclear conflict arising from the war in Ukraine. Russian military doctrine provides that in the event of a conventional attack that threatens the existence of Russia, it is considered legitimate to use nuclear weapons. In this context, the author considers whether Vladimir Putin has just broken a taboo, how far he can go and takes stock of a complex issue. Tertrais considers that the risk of using nuclear weapons seems extremely low, unless a possible escalation of the conflict leads Moscow to estimate that there could be an “existential” threat to Russia. This is inferred from Russian official texts and the practice of exercises that have raised the Russian nuclear threshold from what it was in the 1990s and 2000s. As a reminder, the 2020 doctrinal text considers four possible thresholds: a) an attack with missiles against Russian territory; b) a nuclear or other weapons of mass destruction attack against Russia or its allies; c) attacks intended to cause a paralysis of the Russian command and control system; and d) a conventional attack that would threaten the very existence of Russia. Tertrais also notes that it has been suggested that the use of tactical nuclear weapons in Ukraine would be a possible option for Vladimir Putin. There is no consensus, however, on this somewhat outdated expression, and the type of weapons it can include is subject to arbitrary definitions. Indeed, a nuclear weapon remains a nuclear weapon regardless of its range and payload. The only way to distinguish “tactical” weapons from those usually qualified as “strategic” is to consider that the first category covers means that are not included in bilateral arms control treaties because they do not have an intercontinental scope. It should also be remembered that their use is governed by the same rules and procedures as “strategic” weapons and that the Ukrainian scenario lends itself rather poorly to the use of weapons of this type. In addition, Russia, in line with the evolution of its doctrine, has reinvested relatively little in these weapons over the past two decades. The worst-case scenario either would rather consist of the symbolic explosion of a nuclear weapon, at high altitude or in the open sea, intended to spread fear.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Regarding Catalonia’s connection with the world, the article by Manuel Manonelles in El Nacional<\/em><\/a> stands out, where he points out that the recent incidents of sabotage of the Nord Stream gas pipeline in the Baltic Sea have reminded us that some of the key infrastructures that condition, not only geopolitics, but also our day-to-day life, largely pass in underwater waters. Another of these strategic infrastructures, the importance of which is inversely proportional to its public knowledge, also takes place mostly in the underwater environment. This is the submarine cabling, generally fiber optic and through which more than 95% of internet traffic circulates, a thick and growing network of underwater cables that connect the world and through which the sap of the new economy circulates: data. It is surprising, then, that an infrastructure as critical and relevant as this goes so unnoticed at the same time, considering that it is the backbone of a society that is increasingly dependent on its digital dimension. It is what experts call the “paradox of invisibility”. In recent years, however, the growing need for hyper connectivity to which the large digital conglomerates have been subjected has meant that they have gone from being simple consumers of submarine cables to becoming, first, the main users and, second, the new dominant promoters of this type of infrastructure; thus reinforcing its almost omnipotent power, and not only in the digital environment. Be that as it may, with the inauguration of the Barcelona Cable Landing Station<\/a>, i.e. Barcelona’s submarine cable port (in Sant Adri\u00e0 del Bes\u00f2s), a giant step is taken in the positioning of Barcelona, \u200b\u200band therefore of Catalonia, in the global data path. A route that had been practically monopolized until now, in the western Mediterranean, by Marseille. Thanks to this new infrastructure, behind which is AFR-IX Telecom, a Catalan company that has played a very important role in the submarine cabling of a relevant part of Africa, Barcelona will be able to be the port of eight large cables capacity, two of which already have recipients. The first is for MEDUSA, the high-capacity cable promoted by AFR-IX Telecom itself that will connect all the Mediterranean countries with a total of 8,700 kilometers of cabling, with the advantage of being managed by a neutral and independent actor. And the second \u2013 enormous and largely financed by Meta (Facebook) \u2013 2Africa, with a forecast of 45,000 kilometers of cable that will connect the entire Mediterranean and, through the Suez Canal and the Red Sea, to the south, all of Africa (surrounding it and following the West African coast north to Portugal and the United Kingdom), and to the east connecting the entire Persian Gulf and extending to Karachi (Pakistan) and Mumbai (India). A port, albeit of cables, that resituates Catalonia on the correct path of the geopolitics of underwater depths.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

In terms of European affairs, The Guardian<\/em><\/a> <\/em>editorial highlights the Scottish government’s new initiative to hold a second independence referendum. If the Supreme Court rules that the Scottish Parliament does not have the power to unilaterally call an independence referendum, Prime Minister Sturgeon says she will turn the next general election into a plebiscite on the issue. Given this, it is likely that the offer of a possible new Labor government in London will be to transfer more powers to Scotland as part of a wider plan for devolution. At the same time, the SNP leader also says she prefers Labor to occupy Number 10 Downing Street rather than the Conservatives. Indeed, it took decades for the Scottish nationalists to recover after they withdrew their support for the minority Labor government in 1979, which subsequently collapsed and started the long period of Thatcherism. Therefore, it is most likely that SNP MPs will end up supporting Labour’s proposals to reform a dysfunctional UK.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

At the same time, Lou-Eve Popper argues in Le Monde Diplomatique<\/em><\/a> <\/em>that since the entry of the Greens into the Scottish government in May 2021, the Scottish Prime Minister, until then a supporter of fossil fuels, has been orienting her speech towards more ecologist positions, with the risk of alienating some of the defenders of independence. Thus, following her opposition to the extension of the oil fields discovered in the Shetland Islands in 2002, Sturgeon is being attacked from all sides. The Conservative Party, which accuses her of having crossed the red line and abandoned the Scottish oil and gas industry, but also by his own camp, the Scottish National Party (SNP). One of the tenors of the formation, Fergus Mutch, has regretted his stance against the sector. A significant statement that is not surprising given the history of this political movement. Indeed, the SNP began to grow in the 70s, when the first deposits were discovered in the North Sea.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

For the nationalists, fossil fuels appeared as a gift, synonymous with economic independence. When the SNP came to power in 2007, the party believed that hydrocarbons would enable it to free Scotland from London’s tutelage and in 2014, during the independence referendum campaign, its manifesto predicted that 8% of income of the new State would come from hydrocarbons. When Sturgeon became First Minister in 2014, the official Scottish policy was to make the most of hydrocarbon returns but the years have passed, the climate crisis has worsened and oil reserves are decreasing. Now, the pro-independence parties are promoting renewable energies as a new outlet.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

For his part, the political scientist Jacques Rupnik states in La Vanguardia<\/em><\/a> <\/em>that the war in Ukraine has established a new geopolitical map. If Ukraine’s accession process is serious, the prospect of enlargement must be credible and also incorporate the Balkans. Giving candidate status to Ukraine is a very strong symbol but simple gestures in the end lead to disappointment and resentment, which is what is seen in the Balkans today. In this sense, the expansion cannot be reduced to all or nothing, expansions must be done in phases and that at each stage a threshold is added in terms of participation in institutions and access to community funds. Thus, a positive dynamic could be set in motion which would allow full political integration. Rupnik also states that it will be necessary to think about modifying the EU’s operating rules since it is unthinkable that what is already difficult with 27 countries can work with 37. For this Europe of concentric circles that is being created to work, the core must be strong. If the EU really believes it needs to be a political actor, it needs to change the way it makes decisions and move from unanimity to qualified majority. But the resistance is great and the countries most enthusiastic about the accession of Ukraine and the Balkans are those of Eastern Europe, precisely the most reluctant to abandon unanimity. Ultimately, the war in Ukraine has shown that the European Union has been able to react unitedly, but it has also revealed divisions when it comes to defining Europe as a political project.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

In the economic field, during the last few months, the financial markets have been very agitated and a growing stress on the world economy has become evident. You might think that these are just the normal signs of a bear market and an impending recession. However, as The Economist<\/em>‘s special report<\/a> reveals, they also mean the emergence of a new regime in the world economy, a change that may be as important as the rise of Keynesianism after the Second World War or the shift to free markets and globalization in the 1990s. In this new era, the rich countries could escape the low growth trap of the 2010s and tackle major problems such as demographic aging and climate change. But it also carries significant dangers, from financial chaos to weakened central banks and out-of-control public spending. The tensions in the markets are of a magnitude not seen for a generation. Global inflation is in double digits for the first time in almost 40 years. After being slow to respond, the Federal Reserve is raising interest rates at the fastest pace since the 1980s, while the dollar is at a twenty-year high, causing major financial strains outside United States. There is also an uneasy sense that the emerging world order is being upended as globalization weakens and the energy system fractures after the invasion of Ukraine. All this marks the end of the era of economic placidity that began in the 2010s.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Likewise, the war in Ukraine and sanctions against Moscow are fueling inflation, especially in Europe. In response, the European Central Bank (ECB) is carrying out a slowdown in activity in the face of the risk of a higher unemployment rate. The Eurozone is entering recession, at the same time that the Chinese economy is also starting to show signs of exhaustion. Ra\u00fal Sampognaro considers in Le Monde Diplomatique<\/em><\/a> that this situation is because, on the one hand, the Chinese policy of zero COVID has proven to be increasingly difficult to implement with the appearance of the Omicron variant. This has involved increasingly massive restrictive measures, which have hit the heart of the Chinese economy (especially the cities of Chengdu and Shenzhen). On the other hand, the invasion of Ukraine has caused a new explosion in the prices of energy raw materials and the risk of cuts in the supply of essential resources, in particular gas. The energy commodity price index calculated by the IMF increased by 43% during the first half of 2022. Thus, it is 162% above its pre-COVID level. Sampognaro says that if current tensions end up generating a financial crisis, the approaching recession could change in scale. Unlike the subprime crisis, where emerging economies had been relatively protected by the support of Chinese economic dynamism, the current crisis would now affect the whole world. We are therefore facing a real crisis of globalization, which reveals all its flaws. First, with the emergence of the virus, since its outbreak is closely linked to the systemic environmental crisis, in particular the overexploitation of natural environments in emerging countries. Economic shocks then spread through supply chain blockages and are exacerbated by the market power of a few multinationals. Finally, the foundations of governance that govern economic policy established over the past decades run the risk of amplifying tensions in a changing situation.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Regarding sustainability and climate change, Laurence Tubiana argues in Le Grand Continent<\/em><\/a> that by raising the dilemma of a war in which all actors would lose or an impossible peace in a perpetually unstable world, the climate crisis is altering the very structure of geopolitical rivalries. He claims that the invasion of Ukraine generates a convergence of several notions of security: energy, military, financial, food, climate. These fields, usually treated separately, can no longer be so, since this crisis exacerbates all the vectors of instability beyond the conflict itself. Rising energy and commodity prices, inflation that seriously threatens households, a debt ratio approaching dangerous levels for many countries, the threat of economic recession, the reorientation of the multilateral system due to the dynamics of the new cold war. Faced with this, the European response has consisted in linking the climate imperative with energy security through the “RePowerEU”1 plan, accelerating the transition from fossil fuels and, first of all, from Russian fossil fuels, no later than 2027. But this convergence is above all a convergence of crisis, and this also restricts the field of action, while the physical climate impacts are already manifested with almost an increase of 1.2 C\u00b0. Without decarbonisation, the future seems to be even more turbulent, with not only increased climate impacts, but also economic contraction, political and financial instability, as well as unprecedented conflicts and humanitarian crises.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The energy transition towards a sustainable model is therefore increasingly necessary for the survival of the planet and humanity. However, Jos\u00e9 Pedro Teixeira Fernandes argues in the Portuguese newspaper P\u00fablico<\/em><\/a> that to imagine this transition free of serious geopolitical risks and to aspire to a new green economy emancipated from the competition of geopolitics, is to use a simplistic and inadequate mental map. Much of what is said and written about the energy transition today, even when based on sound scientific research, gives us only a partial view of what the future is likely to be. This is not only due to the difficulty of predicting the future, but also to the fact that advances in science always involve a revision of knowledge that, at a given moment, was taken for granted. Today, in addition to the war in Ukraine between the West and Russia, we find ourselves in a world marked by competition and rivalry between the US and China. However, long before the Sino-American rivalry had the dimension it has today, geopolitics was already undermining the scope of international environmental agreements. As always happens when there are deep economic and technological transformations – and in this case we are talking about a transformation of enormous magnitude and with multiple ramifications in human life – there will be winners and losers, and a new hierarchy of world power may emerge. Current calculations about the future are therefore crucial to understanding the political behavior of the great powers and what we can expect from them. We must be aware that no one will facilitate the energy transition as the Europeans and Westerners want to do it, no matter how many calls are made for the common good of humanity and the survival of the planet.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Finally, regarding the new Nobel Prize in Physics to three pioneers in quantum information for their work that has established the foundations of the so-called “second quantum revolution”, Aymeric Delteil reviews in The Conversation<\/em><\/a> the progress that is being made in the field of quantum computing. In fact, the general press is making more and more references to quantum computation and many readers could deduce that humanity already has instruments capable of surpassing computers as we know them so far. In fact, based on the fundamental principles of quantum physics, researchers and companies are combining their efforts to achieve the ultimate quantum computer, the so-called \u201cuniversal\u201d. And while it is true that the recent successes are as impressive as they are promising – such as the creation of the largest quantum computer containing 127 “quantum bits” – it is necessary to be aware that this has not been designed to be able to have a useful performance but to be a proof of concept. On the other hand, we are already on the verge of having smaller quantum machines, called “quantum simulators”, which will be useful for solving specific problems in physics, engineering, chemistry or even pharmaceuticals. It seems very likely that the first quantum computers will be very different from the omnipotent computers imagined at the beginning and, instead, they will perform a very specific task, undoubtedly constituting the most efficient way to complete it. Its applications are multiple, such as the optimization of distribution networks, the understanding of the mechanisms of photosynthesis, the design of catalysts for fertilizers, drugs, the optimization of batteries or solar cells. Ultimately, even if it is impossible to predict whether we will have a true \u201cuniversal\u201d quantum computer, quantum-computing will undoubtedly be part of our future and scientific structure in the long term.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

At the same time, it is an area that also causes misgivings and concerns, as M\u00e9lanie Gornet and Winston Maxwell<\/a> argue. They stress that the aim of the future European regulation on AI<\/a> \u200b\u200b is to create a legal framework for all Artificial Intelligence (AI) systems, in particular those that pose significant risks to security or fundamental rights, such as non-discrimination, privacy and freedom of expression or human dignity. In its current version, the draft regulation treats all these risks in the same way. A CE label would indicate that the AI \u200b\u200bsystem is considered safe enough to be introduced to the market, whether it concerns physical safety or fundamental rights. The presented text gives great importance to technical standards and risk analyses, with the hope of being able to standardize assessment methods. However, there is a tension between the risk-based approach, proposed by the Commission, and the approach based on respect for fundamental rights, defended by the courts and the work of the Council of Europe. Indeed, although it is easy to imagine a test bed for a safety criterion, such as the tests carried out on children’s toys before they are put on the market, it is more difficult to assess non-discrimination in the same way, because it’s contextual. In order for a product enter the market, suppliers must meet certain technical specifications defined outside the text of the law, most often by means of harmonized standards. Many countries have high hopes for these standards, which could help establish uniform technical and legal requirements for AI systems. For instance, they could define the quality, equity and security criteria of these systems, and even strengthen Europe’s strategic positioning in the global race for AI. But since it will be impossible to guarantee the absence of discrimination from all angles, tolerance thresholds will have to be defined. The question then arises: what is the acceptable level of errors and what kind of errors are we talking about? Which amounts to asking: what is the “acceptable” level of risk of discrimination? In short, the CE label can be a great regulatory and governance tool when combined with technical standards that help us speak the same language and compare systems with each other. In contrast, the decision of what is an “acceptable” risk for human rights can never be delegated to a technical rule. It is therefore necessary to reaffirm the responsibility of the providers and users of these systems, who must define the most appropriate option to protect fundamental rights. This decision must be justified and can be challenged, but the final arbitrage of the acceptability of the risk must be left to the legislator, the regulator and the judges.<\/p>\n\n\n\n


Illustration: Igor Makarevich, \u201cStructures stratigraphiques\u201d, 1979<\/h4>\n\n\n\n

Montserrat Viv\u00f3 and Mart\u00ed Serra, trainee students at the CETC, participated in the elaboration of this issue of Diari de les Idees<\/em>.<\/strong><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

The new escalation of the war in Ukraine with Russia’s massive bombing of civilian targets and energy infrastructure as well as the establishment of martial law in the four annexed regions. The indispensable redefinition of the United Nations\u2019 role in prevention, management and conflict resolution. The 20th Congress of the Communist Party of China and the growing importance of the protest movement of women and civil society in Iran. The importance of the submarine cables in Sant Adri\u00e0 del Bes\u00f2s in the geopolitical position of Barcelona and, thus of Catalonia on the route of global data. The new phase of\u2026<\/p>\n","protected":false},"featured_media":62687,"template":"","category_newspaper":[454],"segment":[],"subject":[],"class_list":["post-60811","newspaper","type-newspaper","status-publish","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category_newspaper-454"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"\nDiari de les idees 70 – IDEES<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/revistaidees.cat\/en\/analisis\/diari-de-les-idees\/diari-de-les-idees-70\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Diari de les idees 70 – IDEES\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"The new escalation of the war in Ukraine with Russia’s massive bombing of civilian targets and energy infrastructure as well as the establishment of martial law in the four annexed regions. The indispensable redefinition of the United Nations\u2019 role in prevention, management and conflict resolution. The 20th Congress of the Communist Party of China and the growing importance of the protest movement of women and civil society in Iran. The importance of the submarine cables in Sant Adri\u00e0 del Bes\u00f2s in the geopolitical position of Barcelona and, thus of Catalonia on the route of global data. 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