{"id":60830,"date":"2022-12-01T13:21:00","date_gmt":"2022-12-01T11:21:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/revistaidees.cat\/analisis\/diari-de-les-idees\/diari-de-les-idees-73\/"},"modified":"2023-01-30T11:55:12","modified_gmt":"2023-01-30T09:55:12","slug":"diari-de-les-idees-73","status":"publish","type":"newspaper","link":"https:\/\/revistaidees.cat\/en\/analisis\/diari-de-les-idees\/diari-de-les-idees-73\/","title":{"rendered":"Diari de les idees 73"},"content":{"rendered":"\n

In this issue of Diari de les Idees<\/em> we highlight the disappointing conclusions of the COP27 held in Egypt, despite the commitment to create a permanent aid fund for the countries most affected by the impact of climate change; the use of winter weather as a weapon of war by Russia in the war in Ukraine; the growing prominence of the middle powers in international geopolitics. Moreover, we bring you the topics and trends to which you will need to pay attention next year; the structural changes that will last beyond the current recessionary economic cycle; the technological war for the semiconductor market, and the apparent simultaneous collapse of different giants in the new technology sector.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

In the field of international politics, Adam Tooze analyzes in Foreign Policy<\/em><\/a> the G20 summit held on November 15 and 16 in Bali. He reports that the scenario expected was one of the confrontations between the US and its allies with the “authoritarian” bloc of China and Russia. Indonesia, along with India, would form part of the new non-aligned bloc. This script, however, was only partially fulfilled. However, the fact that the Russian president could not attend the summit allowed China and India to publicly distance themselves from it, although this does not imply that any kind of realignment took place. At the same time, the statements of Indonesia, Turkey, and India criticizing the war stand out. The countries that until recently were considered the lesser partners of the G20 have shown increasing autonomy. So, the G20 summit has shown that there are still counterweights to the power of the two great global powers. Born from the need to deal with the lack of coordination during the Asian financial crisis of the nineties of the last century, today the G20 also serves to deal with the various crises and to try to de-escalate the situation.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

For his part, Ivan Krastev argues in The Financial Times<\/em><\/a> that the insecurities and ambitions of what we might call the middle powers are shaping the emerging geopolitical landscape. Observed from a distance, the war in Ukraine might seem like a repeat of the Cold War confrontation between the \u201cfree world\u201d and Russian (and Chinese) authoritarianism. A closer look, however, complicates the picture. While America’s allies in Europe united in defense of Ukraine and against Beijing’s tacit support for Putin’s war, other states, especially in the south, have had a different response. This makes sense in the context of the collapse of the post-Cold War order. A traditional US ally, Saudi Arabia, and one of its current security partners, India, have reformulated their ties with the US. At the same time, Russia’s former allies in Central Asia have also begun to express their misgivings. In the case of Kazakhstan, the Russian invasion of Ukraine has not strengthened Moscow’s alliance with Astana but has broken it. Thus, the war in Ukraine has highlighted the activism of the middle powers\u2014South Africa, India, South Korea, Germany, Turkey, Saudi Arabia, and Israel, to name a few\u2014as the main driver of the remodeling of the international environment. The fact that these countries are heterogeneous stands out: some are democracies while others are autocracies and others occupy an intermediate gray area. Some of these middle powers are developing countries with booming populations, while others are economic powers battling demographic decline. Some have gained middle power status thanks to their geographic size, others thanks to economic power. But they all share one fundamental characteristic: they are determined to be actors and no longer just guests. As Shannon O’Neil argues in her book The Globalization Myth<\/em> (Yale University Press, 2022), most of the world globalization translates into regionalization and this is the key to the growing influence of the middle powers.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

From the pages of The Economist<\/em>, Tom Standage, editor of The World Ahead 2023<\/em><\/a>, highlights ten topics and trends to which you will have to pay attention in the coming year. First, the war in Ukraine, as energy prices, inflation, interest rates, economic growth, and food shortages all depend on how the conflict unfolds in the coming months. Second, a period of recessions is looming in major economies as central banks raise interest rates to fight inflation, an effect of the pandemic that has been exacerbated by current high energy prices. Third, climate change, as countries rush to secure their energy supplies, they are reverting to fossil fuels, although in the medium term the war will accelerate the shift to renewable energy as a safer alternative to hydrocarbons supplied by autocrats. Fourth, as for China, at some point next April, its population will be surpassed by that of India. With China’s population in decline and its economy facing headwinds, the debate will open as to whether China has already peaked as slower growth means its economy may never peak. that of the United States. Fifth, a divided America to the extent that even though Republicans have fared worse than expected in the midterm elections, social and cultural divisions over abortion, guns, and other hot-button issues will continue after a series of controversial Supreme Court rulings. Sixth, the possibility of new conflicts breaking out as the focus of attention on the war in Ukraine increases the risk of conflict elsewhere. With Russia bogged down in the West, various conflicts may erupt in its backyard. For its part, China might decide there will never be a better time to make a move on Taiwan. Tensions between India and China could explode in the Himalayas. And even Turkey might be tempted to seize some Greek island in the Aegean. Seventh, alliance changes will continue to occur. NATO, revitalized by the war in Ukraine, will welcome two new members. Saudi Arabia could join the Abraham Accords as the main force in a new emerging bloc. Other alliances such as the Quad, Aukus, and I2U2 (a sustainability forum that unites India, Israel, the United Arab Emirates, and the United States) could also gain more prominence. Eighth, the return of tourism: As people travel again after the restrictions imposed by the pandemic, spending will almost regain its 2019 level of $1.4 trillion, thanks mainly to inflation that has raised prices. On the other hand, the actual number of international tourist trips, of 1.6 billion, will still be below the pre-pandemic level (1.8 billion in 2019). Ninth, the development of the Metaverse: 2023 will provide some answers when Apple releases its first headphones for the Metaverse and Meta decides whether to change its strategy now that its stock price is going down. Finally, next year also promises the appearance of new words such as nimbys, yimbys, cryptomonads, post-quantum cryptography, and synfuel… Standage concludes that seen in perspective, the pandemic marked the end of a period of relative stability and predictability in geopolitics and economy. Today’s world is much more unstable, convulsed by the vicissitudes of rivalry between great powers, the aftershocks of the pandemic, the economic situation, the climate emergency, and rapid social and technological changes. Unpredictability is the new normal.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

In Foreign Affairs<\/em><\/a>, Mo Ibrahim points out that although Africa is a continent rich in resources, today it still has to suffer the scourge of poverty. Of the 46 countries that the United Nations considers “underdeveloped”, 35 are African. While the legacy of colonialism has a lot to do with it, there are also internal factors that play a very important role in limiting the continent’s growth. It is a reality that colonialism left a very deep wound. The political borders, drawn by the Europeans, add to the configuration of the economic model of most African countries, purely extractive on the part of the West and without any kind of continental integration or own agricultural production that covers the population. However, colonial history alone does not justify the current situation. Corruption, totalitarian governments that commit crimes against the population, and, especially, the concentration of the economy in resource-extractive sectors such as oil and diamonds have created a bleak landscape in most countries. Meanwhile, the African Union cannot participate in the G7 or G20, the veto power of Russia or China prevents the UN Security Council from punishing African dictators, and the United States and the EU do little to control illegal money flowing into their banks. In addition, although some African countries have public debt-to-GDP ratios below some European countries, international investors consider them unsafe for investment. To progress, Africa must integrate economically and, in this sense, the African Union outlined a free trade agreement in 2018, but its implementation is still a long way off. Energy is another delicate issue because although half of Africa already produces energy from renewable sources, to cover the enormous energy demand of its growing population, it needs the gas that the West condemns so much.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Regarding the war in Ukraine, in a speech outlining a ten-point peace plan, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky called on the leaders of the major G20 economies meeting in Indonesia to end the war. The magazine Le Grand Continent<\/em><\/a> <\/em>offers an analysis of the ten points presented by the Ukrainian president. First, in terms of nuclear safety, Russia must withdraw from the Zaporizhzhia plant, which must immediately be transferred under the control of the International Atomic Energy Agency. Second, ensure food security through the Grain from Ukraine<\/a> initiative through which Ukraine plans to export 45 million tons of food. Third, restore energy security, as around 40% of Ukrainian energy infrastructure has been destroyed. Fourth, the return of prisoners and deportees, since thousands of Ukrainians \u2014 soldiers and civilians \u2014 are in captivity and 11,000 children have been deported to Russia. Fifth, it is necessary to restore the validity of international law, and this without any commitment to the aggressor, because the Charter of the United Nations cannot be applied partially, selectively, or to the letter. Russia must guarantee the territorial integrity of Ukraine within the framework of relevant resolutions of the UN General Assembly and applicable binding international agreements. Sixth, Russia must withdraw all its troops and armed formations from the territory of Ukraine. Ukrainian control over all sections of the border must be restored and a real and complete cessation of hostilities must be achieved. Seventh, Zelensky calls for the creation of a Special Court to judge Russian aggression and an international mechanism to compensate for the damage caused by the war. Eighth, the immediate protection of the environment must be ensured. Millions of hectares of forest have been burned by the bombings and nearly 200,000 hectares are contaminated by mines and unexploded shells. Ninth, it is necessary to establish measures to prevent any type of escalation. Ukraine is not a member of any alliance and Zelensky believes that Russia was able to start the war precisely because Ukraine remained in the gray zone, between the Euro-Atlantic world and Russian imperialism. Finally, once all the above measures are implemented, when security and justice begin to be restored, the parties should sign a document confirming the end of the war.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Simultaneously, The Economist<\/a> <\/em>explores the different possibilities for ending the conflict in Ukraine after the withdrawal of Russian troops from Kherson and the massive bombings against Ukrainian energy infrastructure that have collapsed the country’s electricity grid. The evolution of the war raises an uncomfortable question: how long will the United States and Europe continue to provide Ukraine with the billions of dollars in military and economic aid it needs each month to defend itself? Although Western leaders say the aid will last as long as needed, many citizens reject the idea of \u200b\u200bfinancing an indefinite conflict with Russia. For example, at the beginning of November tens of thousands of people took to the streets of Rome to call for an end to the fighting. Doubts are also emerging in the United States. A few weeks ago, left-wing Democratic congressmen made a public call – although they immediately retracted – in favor of opening negotiations. The new Republican majority in Congress that emerged from the midterm elections, although less wide than expected, is a reminder that American politics could change dramatically even before the next presidential election, and with it politics in relationship with Ukraine. Privately, Western and Ukrainian leaders are beginning to ponder how best to end the conflict. In this context, one can consider whether Ukraine will become a new Finland, forced to cede territory and remain neutral for decades. Or in another West Germany, with a territory divided by war and the democratic half incorporated into NATO? A much-debated model is that of Israel, a country under constant threat that has been able to defend itself without formal alliances, but with extensive military aid from the United States. Ultimately, however, the specific terms of any negotiated settlement depend on what happens on the battlefield. There will likely be much more fighting before either side is willing to end the war.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Regarding Spanish and Catalan politics, Ignacio S\u00e1nchez-Cuenca highlights in El Pa\u00eds<\/a><\/em> that the investiture block has decided to modify the penal code to eliminate the crime of sedition. The ambiguous “tumultuous uprising” referred to in the law in the article on sedition will be replaced by a crime of aggravated public disorder with significantly lower penalties than previously contemplated for “seditious” acts. Among other things, it seeks to converge with the penalties applied in other Western European countries for this type of crime. The political significance of this measure \u2014 along with the pardons granted by the Government in June 2021 \u2014 in practice implies a substantial rectification of the response of the Spanish state and political system to the Catalan crisis, with broad support for society. Likewise, it is clear that a declaration of independence is not, as such, a crime since although this declaration is made outside the constitutional order, it constitutes a politically invalid act, but without criminal relevance. The Constitutional Court annulled all the political and legislative steps taken in Catalonia to move towards the separation of the State, and from the point of view of the previous Spanish Government, the only way to imprison the pro-independence leaders went through a “creative” interpretation of events. S\u00e1nchez-Cuenca points out that although it cannot be carried out in this legislature, we must hope that the next one will address politically, the constitutional reform that Spain needs to establish a territorial model that reconciles with the plurinational condition.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

In European affairs, Suzanne Lynch warns, in Politico<\/a><\/em> magazine, about the dysfunctions that exist within the European institutions due to the lack of coordination between the two most important positions in the EU. The fact is that the personal relationship between the President of the European Commission, Ursula von der Leyen, and the President of the Council, Charles Michel, is non-existent. The Council and the Commission are opposing institutions that must guarantee the balance of power in the Union, without reaching the current extremes. The previous Juncker-Tusk tandem had its political disagreements but never reached this level of personal disagreements. The relationship between von der Leyen and Michel changed following the incident in Turkey, when Michel sat next to Erdogan, relegating to the background the president of the Commission who did not even have a seat. Since then, the relationship between the two has been non-existent, and the lack of information is leading to coordination problems. Experts and officials agree that the president has been able to acquire much more fame than Michel. He has made a place on the media agenda and achieved better relations with Washington. The president, who controls the EU’s executive arm, has exceeded expectations, while Michel has disappointed. Either way, it is disappointing and dangerous that at a time when collaboration and unity are needed more than ever, the EU is immersed in a battle of egos at the highest levels.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

On the blog of the Real Instituto Elcano<\/a><\/em>, Mira Milosevich-Juaristi warns that since last June, tensions between Kosovo and Serbia have been on the rise over the issue of car registrations, despite the announcement a few days ago of an agreement in extremis to avoid an escalation and to normalize their relations. The Kosovo government had taken the decision not to recognize the “KM” license plates of Kosovska Mitrovica, the region populated by the Serbian minority, forcing the population to accept Kosovo car license plates. At the same time, another event has occurred in recent weeks that has seriously aggravated tensions: the dismissal of Serbian Nenad Djuric, Chief of Police in Kosovska Mitrovica, a decision that contravenes the 2013 Brussels Agreement<\/a> signed by representatives of Serbia, Kosovo, and the then High Representative of the EU’s Foreign Policy, Catherine Ashton, and ratified by her successors, Federica Mogherini and Josep Borrell. The Brussels Agreement is a document that aims to create a framework for the normalization of relations between Belgrade and Pristina, envisages extensive autonomy for the Serbian population of Kosovo and, more importantly, the creation of a Community of Serbian Municipalities in the region of Kosovska Mitrovica. The final objective of this Agreement was mutual recognition, with the aim of the simultaneous entry of Serbia and Kosovo into the EU. The situation in Kosovo is therefore more worrying than usual and no one is interested in inter-ethnic violence breaking out in Kosovo and the way to prevent it would be greater involvement of international institutions and leaders. The only way out of the current impasse is for the Pristina government to comply with the Agreement it signed in 2013, but to do so would require legal changes to the Constitution and the support of the international community.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

For her part, Myriam Revault d’Allonnes raises from the pages of Le Grand Continent<\/a> <\/em>whether European values \u200b\u200bare universalizable and, first of all, argues that it is necessary to define what universality is being talked about and what universality consists of. The universal dimension of European values \u200b\u200bis born from an abstract universality, a priori, which some call “over-emerging” because, starting from a precise and assigned origin (a particular identity), it aims to normalize and align on its own model what is different from herself. It is the criticism that is constantly directed at this type of universality by those who rightly see it as the hidden expression of a hegemony (economic, colonial, cultural). This universality is effectively the simple unilateral transplantation of a singular form effectively dominated by Western modernity. But it is precisely this universality that is invoked in the vindication of a monolithic European identity, based on Christian values \u200b\u200band in the search for a globalizing narrative. But there is another way of thinking about the universal, and this is in no way alien to history or the European spirit: both as a political demand – which must be applied to all humanity – and as an anthropological requirement that affirms the existence of common and transcendent structures of thought in all cultures. The author argues that ultimately the only real universality is that which is open to alterity and is inhabited by plurality. To understand it, however, it is necessary to leave this binary logic where a self-proclaimed universality and the criticism of a universality always reduced to the discourse of domination face each other.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Janan Ganesh states in the Financial Times<\/a><\/em> that this year the various most relevant autocratic movements in the West (and the world) have been overtaken by liberal democracy. In France, Emmanuel Macron has surpassed Marine Le Pen; in the United Kingdom the year ends with Rishi Sunak when it had begun with Boris Johnson (Liz Truss’ interlude has only lasted 44 days); in Brazil, Jair Bolsonaro has lost the elections and the US mid-term elections have been a defeat for the most extremist sector of the Republican Party, complicating Donald Trump’s return to the White House. While it is true that in Sweden, Italy, and Israel populism has managed to advance, the overall annual tally is disappointing for the autocrats. Ganesh maintains that autocracies are hostages to luck because even though they claim to be more effective than democracies, a war with the mobilization of the population (even if it is partial) or an economic stagnation resulting from drastic and repeated confinements does not they are very good for the health of a regime. No matter how many gas reserves (Russia) or anti-aircraft missiles (China) one has, the prevailing idea among autocrats that liberalism will be erased from history as a defective gene has little foundation.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

However, vigilance must remain in the face of danger as the fallout from COVID-19, the war in Ukraine, and inflation strain the seams of democracy around the world. According to the International Institute for Democracy and Electoral Assistance (IDEA International<\/a>), between 2016 and 2021, the number of countries that have turned towards more authoritarianism is more than double that of those that have moved towards a higher quality of democracy. Its just-released report The Global State of Democracy 2022<\/a> reveals that the recent series of global crises\u2014including Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and conflicts in Ethiopia, Myanmar, Syria, and Yemen\u2014seems to signal the emergence of a new status quo, defined by increased volatility and uncertainty. Opinion polls carried out over the last five years show a decline in citizens’ confidence in the value of democracy itself. This is no surprise since the core of any social contract is that citizens agree to be governed in exchange for those who govern them providing them with certain basic goods. And during this period, the ability of democracies to provide key public goods to their citizens and to close the gap between social expectations and institutional performance is increasingly at risk. Social contracts indeed vary according to cultural and historical context, but all democracies share certain basic commonalities, such as respect for individual civil and political rights, fair and competitive elections, some control over power by governed, effective access to their government, and a set of rights that make a dignified life possible. Ultimately, the report also emphasizes that democracy must be revitalized, not because it must prevail in a supposed new era of the Cold War, but because it still offers the best opportunity to preserve what is necessary and valuable to dignify people’s lives.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

In The Atlantic<\/a><\/em>, Tom McTague reflects on the quintessential global event, the controversial football World Cup taking place in Qatar, which he describes as the biggest absurdity in the history of sports. In 2010, the world football’s governing body, FIFA, awarded the hosting of the world’s most popular and prestigious sporting event to a tiny Middle Eastern autocracy with a population of just under 3 million. but where citizens of this nationality only represent a little more than 10%. The rest are some very rich ex-pats from other countries and a huge army of poor migrants who do most of the work. That Qatar could beat the bids of the United States, Australia, Japan, and South Korea was so indefensible that it is impossible not to conclude that the whole system is rotten. But more than a one-off scandal, the World Cup in Qatar is a fable of the world we live in, and not only of the world of football. The World Cup in Qatar is what happens when a corrupt international organization with great power and little accountability takes over important things; when democracies are willing to sell their institutions and even their culture to the highest bidder; and when entire economies depend on the exploitation of cheap, globalized labor and unregulated capital. Qatar and the other Gulf states want to diversify their economies to survive the day when the source of their wealth dries up. And they want to do it all while protecting their autocratic regimes. To achieve this, they invest in sports, entertainment, tourism, and transport, hoping to become attractive poles of a future low-tax global economy where the rich will go to live, work, shop, and relax away from the cumbersome burdens of democracy, served by an army of poor migrant workers. Its investment in sports is therefore only part of a wider strategy. The West not only accepts their money for their sports teams but buys their fossil fuels and sells them weapons in return. To expect sports to acting as an honorable exception while the rest of society tries to make as much money as possible regardless of the morality or long-term security of their countries is ridiculous. The fact is that Europe has been sold to the highest bidder for years. Germany’s entire geopolitical strategy has been to link itself to Russia and China, two states considered strategic threats by NATO. The UK has auctioned off infrastructure and core assets, whether that means giving China a stake in the UK’s nuclear industry or providing Russia with financial services and real estate opportunities to launder its money. The West is no longer as rich or as dominant in the world as it once was. He has to make difficult decisions that involve compromises. But if the plan was to maintain national wealth, security, independence, and integrity, the last few decades have been a disaster. Like the World Cup in Qatar.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

In the economic field, Mohamed A. El-Erian states in Foreign Affairs<\/a><\/em> that more than just another turn of the economic wheel, the world may be experiencing major structural changes that will last beyond the current economic cycle. Three new trends in particular hint at such a transformation and are likely to play an important role in shaping economic outcomes over the coming years: the shift from insufficient demand to insufficient supply as the main drag on growth; the end of unlimited liquidity provided by central banks; and the growing fragility of financial markets. These changes help explain many of the unusual economic developments of recent years and are likely to create even more uncertainty in the future as shocks become more frequent and violent. These changes will affect individuals, businesses, and governments: economically, socially, and politically. And until analysts realize how likely these trends are to last beyond the next economic cycle, the economic hardships they cause are likely to significantly outweigh the opportunities they create. Recessions and inflation spikes come and go, but recent years have seen a series of unexpected, if not unthinkable, global economic and financial developments. The United States, once a champion of free trade, has become the most protectionist advanced economy. Britain has suddenly turned into something akin to a struggling developing country after an ill-fated mini-budget weakened the currency, pushed bond yields up dramatically, prompted a designation of “vigilance negative\u201d by rating agencies, and forced Prime Minister Liz Truss to resign. Borrowing costs have also risen sharply, with interest rates on more than a third of the world’s bonds now negative (creating an abnormal situation where creditors pay debtors). The war in Ukraine has paralyzed the G-20, accelerating what was already a gradual weakening of the institution. And some Western countries have turned the international payments system, which is the backbone of the global economy, into a weapon to punish Moscow. We should add to this the rapid recentralization of China under Xi Jinping and its decoupling from the United States; the strengthening of autocracies around the world; the polarization and even fragmentation of many liberal democracies; the growing impact of climate change; demographic changes; and the gradual migration of economic power from the West towards the East.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The world’s population has just reached a new record: 8 billion and heated debates are taking place about the so-called carrying capacity of the planet, i.e. the total number of people who can sustainably live on Earth. In The Conversation<\/a><\/em>, Lorenzo Fioramonti points out that experts are generally divided into two camps. Some argue that we must reduce the human population drastically to avoid an ecological catastrophe. And some believe that technology will find intelligent solutions without actively addressing the problem. However, it is difficult to calculate how many humans the planet can sustainably support. This is often overlooked in policy debates, which generally treat the issue rather simplistically, based on the assumption that rising living standards will lead to falling birth rates. Therefore, according to this argument, the world population will decline as soon as continents such as Asia and Africa reach similar levels of development as Europe and North America. Fioramonti, on the other hand, believes that the time has come to rethink our approach to wealth and develop different ways to improve living standards. A new report by the Club of Rome entitled Earth4All<\/a> argues that countries (especially the most industrialized) should replace the pursuit of economic growth with broader measures of social and ecological well-being. This would translate into a significant decrease in material consumption, without harming the general quality of life. What might this entail in practice? Policies should encourage better work-life balance and gender equality, as women’s empowerment is a key determinant of population growth. They should also optimize energy use and efficiency because the most renewable energy is the energy we don’t need to use. We also need regenerative practices and homegrown solutions for food manufacturing and production (approximately 30% of food globally is lost or wasted due to overconsumption and aesthetic standards). This welfare economics approach would help all countries (including the poorest) to move to a different type of development, capable of combining a high quality of life with more limited impacts on the environment. It is the difference between an extractive and linear economy that converts resources into carbon emissions and a regenerative and circular economy that produces no waste because the output of any process becomes another input. In short, living better and more equitably will help us find the right balance also concerning the world population, without the need to impose restrictions.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Regarding climate change and sustainability, the conclusions of the COP27 held a few days ago stand out. Negotiations to create a fund to compensate developing countries for loss and damage caused by climate change have dominated the negotiations, and ultimately, although states agreed to establish such a fund, it has yet to negotiate who will pay and how this financial assistance will be specified. The COP27 Agreement<\/a> also does not go beyond the promise of the 2021 Glasgow Climate Pact<\/a> to gradually reduce the use of coal, and the text has also not announced new targets or commitments, threatening the goal of limiting the increase of the global temperature to 1.5 \u00b0C, established seven years ago in the Paris Agreement<\/a>. Developing countries attended COP27 hoping to make progress on three fronts: climate finance and the payment of $100 billion annually as promised in 2009, global decarbonization, and recognition of the responsibility of developed countries to pay for the losses and damages caused. Only one of these objectives has been achieved. In this context, it is necessary to consider why COP27 has failed. Firstly, due to the current geopolitical situation. The summit has been overshadowed by the war in Ukraine, which has strained gas supplies, prompting many countries to expand national reserves of fossil fuels. On the other hand, this has led to the oil and gas-producing countries having more influence at COP27, undermining the negotiations. Second, the timing and location. The first week took place during the US mid-term elections when much of the world’s media was focusing on them, while the second week coincided with the G20 summit in Bali, which diverted even more attention and caused many world leaders not to attend. To make matters worse, the negotiations dragged on until the weekend, just as attention turned to the football World Cup and the controversies associated with Qatar. Third, is the lack of leadership. International diplomacy is difficult and requires a great deal of time, effort, and skill. The reason COP26 in Glasgow in 2021 resulted in agreements on deforestation, methane emissions, and other issues was partly that the hosts worked hard to build consensus in the extra year they had been given the pandemic This year, however, the Egyptian presidency underestimated this task. Fourth, is the lack of trust. This is mainly because the promised $100 billion a year has yet to fully materialize. This is a relatively small amount when you consider that Qatar has spent 220 billion dollars to host the 2022 World Cup. In addition, the money intended to support adaptation programs to climate change has not arrived either.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Finally, regarding new technologies, Le Grand Continent<\/a><\/em> presents an unprecedented study in 10 points, 12 graphs, and 2 maps to understand the matrix of the technological rivalry between China and the United States that structures the world concerning an of its most relevant aspects: semiconductors. The points around which the study is structured are the following: 1) What is a semiconductor? 2) Why are they important? 3) The value chain and the interdependence of key players 4) Why Taiwan? 5) Why are semiconductors at the heart of global geopolitical rivalry? 6) What is the position of the United States? 7) What is the position of the European Union? 8) What is being done or planned to be done to counteract the shortage of semiconductors? 9) What impact have the new US restrictions had on the global semiconductor market? And 10) What happens in the event of a shortage of semiconductors? Limiting ourselves here to the importance of semiconductors in the current geopolitical scenario, it should be noted that the Biden administration has recently decreed a series of sanctions that take the global confrontation in this area to another level, preventing companies from sending to China manufactures the cutting-edge processors needed to run complex Artificial Intelligence algorithms. The sanctions apply not only to American companies but also to all those that use American inputs in their production processes (intellectual property, design software, etc.). This follows a series of decisions that have already begun tightening controls on semiconductor exports to China. While some see it as a return to Cold War thinking, the decision is emblematic of the centrality of semiconductors to global technological rivalry. We have already seen how the actors involved are also major geopolitical actors, but several factors help to underline further the importance of semiconductors: the ongoing global digital transformation, the COVID-19 pandemic with its disruptive effects on supply chains supply, and the war in Ukraine, which is affecting the supply of raw materials.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Finally, Derek Thompson argues in The Atlantic<\/a><\/em> that the big tech industries are suffering a simultaneous collapse. Although unemployment levels in the sector remain very low, all the tech giants \u2014 Amazon, Meta, Snap, or Twitter \u2014 have recently begun to terminate tens of thousands of contracts. In addition, the capitalization of the shares of these companies has fallen by more than 50% during the last year. This, together with the explosion of the cryptocurrency bubble, makes the author consider the reasons for this collapse. On the one hand, it can be argued that one of them is the interest rate. After the Great Recession of 2008, the economy was based on low demand and interest rates, leading to investment in tech venture capital. The digitization of the economy considerably increased the weight of this industry. With the post-pandemic effects rates have gone up and therefore all this investment and euphoria has been diminishing. On the other hand, there is also a second hypothesis: the technology industry is suffering a midlife crisis. After a first period where it was necessary to solve very complex problems, it seems that a stage has closed. Managers are now looking for challenges in a new direction\u2014such as investing in the Metaverse concept. In this sense, all companies are using a large number of resources in initiatives whose profitability is uncertain. Space, voice assistants, augmented reality: none of these investments are currently having a social response. In this way, the macroeconomic explanation and psychodynamics are complementary. The industry had been preparing for years to invest in complicated new ventures but has been hit by the effects of the pandemic. However, we would be wrong to call the industry dead, says Thompson. We are in a moment of transition, and ten years from now, we could see an uncertain future generated by the new applications of artificial intelligence.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Illustration: <\/strong>Paul Klee, “Fish Magic”, 1925.<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Montserrat Viv\u00f3, Mart\u00ed Serra, and Eudald Mart\u00ednez, trainee students at the CETC, participated in the elaboration of this issue of Diari de les Idees<\/em>.<\/strong><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

In this issue of Diari de les Idees we highlight the disappointing conclusions of the COP27 held in Egypt, despite the commitment to create a permanent aid fund for the countries most affected by the impact of climate change; the use of winter weather as a weapon of war by Russia in the war in Ukraine; the growing prominence of the middle powers in international geopolitics. Moreover, we bring you the topics and trends to which you will need to pay attention next year; the structural changes that will last beyond the current recessionary economic cycle; the technological war for\u2026<\/p>\n","protected":false},"featured_media":60822,"template":"","category_newspaper":[454],"segment":[],"subject":[],"class_list":["post-60830","newspaper","type-newspaper","status-publish","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category_newspaper-454"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"\nDiari de les idees 73 – IDEES<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/revistaidees.cat\/en\/analisis\/diari-de-les-idees\/diari-de-les-idees-73\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Diari de les idees 73 – IDEES\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"In this issue of Diari de les Idees we highlight the disappointing conclusions of the COP27 held in Egypt, despite the commitment to create a permanent aid fund for the countries most affected by the impact of climate change; the use of winter weather as a weapon of war by Russia in the war in Ukraine; the growing prominence of the middle powers in international geopolitics. 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