{"id":62596,"date":"2023-02-16T11:40:37","date_gmt":"2023-02-16T09:40:37","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/revistaidees.cat\/analisis\/diari-de-les-idees\/diari-de-les-idees-77\/"},"modified":"2023-03-09T14:47:04","modified_gmt":"2023-03-09T12:47:04","slug":"diari-de-les-idees-77","status":"publish","type":"newspaper","link":"https:\/\/revistaidees.cat\/en\/analisis\/diari-de-les-idees\/diari-de-les-idees-77\/","title":{"rendered":"Diari de les idees 77"},"content":{"rendered":"\n

This fortnight’s edition of Diari de les idees<\/em> highlights, among other relevant topics, the reflection on the concept of escalation that is taking place as a result of the announcement of the sending of battle tanks to Ukraine by its Western allies; the political, social and economic consequences of the earthquake that has devastated Turkey and Syria; the Spanish Supreme Court ruling reviewing the conviction of Catalan independence supporters following the reform of the Penal Code; changes in the global monetary architecture increasingly less centred on the pre-eminence of the US dollar; and some of the recent innovations in the world of Artificial Intelligence (AI). We also take this opportunity to announce the publication next Friday 24 February of a special monographic issue dedicated to the first anniversary of the war in Ukraine.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

In the field of international politics, Guillaume Le Duc and Laure Deron argue in Conflits<\/em><\/a> that just as the United States did from the 1990s onwards, China is beginning to use extraterritorial law to defend its interests. Striking a balance between coercion and seduction, the Chinese Communist Party is developing a powerful legal arsenal. Beginning in 2013, the United States imposed fines on foreign companies, especially European ones, for acts committed outside US territory that it considered detrimental to its economic and diplomatic interests. In the current context, there is every indication that China, with its considerable economic weight, could pursue the same extraterritorial ambition, as it is strongly integrated into world trade, and therefore has significant jurisdictional competence. After the 2018 outbreak of the trade war with the United States and especially since 2020, China has strengthened its legal arsenal to define its extraterritorial policy and capabilities, particularly in two strategic sectors: international sanctions and data processing. In 2020, it adopted a sanctions and export control regime, as well as legislation aimed at neutralising the effects of foreign sanctions in 2021. This blocking legislation is moreover very similar to the tools used by the EU. Moreover, noting the inadequacy of a passive defence against foreign sanctions, China has also adopted a law providing for countermeasures to enable it to respond, in order to seek a balance through the balance of power. It is also possible, however, that, due to the size of its domestic market, China can exert a strong influence on international norms and decisions without even having to resort to expressly extraterritorial legislation.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Continuing in the Far East, Jeffrey W. Hornung states in Foreign Policy<\/em><\/a> the return of Japan to the forefront of the global geopolitical stage, as Tokyo is moving away from the position it has held since the end of World War II in response to the war in Ukraine and China’s increasing pressure on Indo-Pacific countries. Japan has thus replaced its former positions based on a pacifist stance with a series of more active actions in international affairs. At the end of 2022, the administration of Prime Minister Fumio Kishida published three new documents:  a new National Security Strategy<\/a>, National Defense Strategy<\/a>, and Defense Buildup Plan<\/a>. Among other changes is Tokyo’s intention to increase defence spending by 60% over the next five years, up from 1% of the annual budget devoted to defence since 1970.  Japan is also becoming more determined on territorial disputes and is exerting increasing diplomatic influence in Asia through a more active role in regional organisations and initiatives. A remarkable fact that also reveals a major shift in public opinion is that there is little public opposition to these changes, in contrast to the large demonstrations that opposed the revision of the security treaty<\/a> in 1959 and 1960.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

For his part, Charles Enderlin states in Le Monde Diplomatique<\/em><\/a> that by prioritising the political reforms demanded by his nationalist and ultra-Orthodox allies, Binyamin Netanyahu is carrying out a profound transformation of Israeli democracy. The powers of the Supreme Court, but also those of judges, are in the crosshairs of a coalition that plans to extend the importance of religion to public education and concede nothing to the Palestinians. Thus, the new justice minister has presented his radical overhaul project based on the principle that the “people” give the elected majority the legitimacy to rule alone, without the interference of the judges. A so-called circumvention clause will thus allow the sixty-one deputies of the majority to overturn any decision of the Supreme Court. Other measures are also envisaged, such as the rewriting of certain articles of the penal code, which would reduce the number of charges of corruption within the political class. For the new prime minister, the aim of imposing Jewish nationalism is to increase its influence on young people by reinforcing religion in public schools. The question now is whether Netanyahu will succeed in changing his country’s institutions. Convinced that the time for transformation has come, he has no intention of giving in to the supporters of the rule of law who managed to gather more than 130,000 demonstrators in Tel Aviv and Jerusalem on 21 January.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

In Turkey, Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan had everything in his sights to win the 14 May elections, the most difficult since he seized power in Turkey 20 years ago. However, just as an earthquake brought him to power in 2002, another may bring him down in 2023, in a context where the economy is the president’s Achilles heel: inflation is out of control (it reached 85% last November and this year’s average will be around 42.5%) while GDP will not grow more than 3%, two points below the government’s forecasts. Erdogan has lowered rates to encourage production and consumption, but the Turkish lira is sinking and the central bank is running out of foreign currency to service its debt. Having been at the apex of the power pyramid for more than twenty years, Erdogan has been forced to confront the shortcomings of his management at first hand, and the earthquake may be the final straw, as the massive collapse of modern buildings has revealed the extent of corruption as a pervasive system. Indeed, many modern buildings that should have been built to official standards to withstand tectonic plate movements have collapsed just like the older ones, as a significant part of the money went into the pockets of local businesspersons and politicians. All this in a political context where the opposition is united in an unprecedented six-party coalition and in a social context where Erdogan can no longer guarantee the welfare of the lower classes, as he has been able to until now.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

With regard to the war in Ukraine, Olivier Schmitt analyses in Le Grand Continent<\/em><\/a> the concept of escalation that has been much talked about in recent weeks in the wake of the issue of tank deliveries to Ukraine that has divided Western allies and provoked a number of controversies: does this decision amount to escalation? Could Russia use this as a pretext for retaliation? Although the term seems transparent, it is sometimes misunderstood and can lead to confusion. Schmitt reviews the forms of the risk of escalation and warns why in the case of the war in Ukraine this risk is not negligible. Thus, a distinction is generally made between vertical escalation and horizontal escalation. Vertical escalation refers to an increase in the intensity of hostilities within the framework of a conflict whose perimeter remains the same. Horizontal escalation, on the other hand, expands the perimeter of the conflict, either by opening up new scenarios or by adding new areas. In the case of Ukraine, Schmitt considers that, if the term is conceptualised correctly, the delivery of tanks does not constitute escalation. However, this does not mean that the risk is zero, and therefore one has to think about scenarios that might constitute escalation, whether desired or not. The first is a situation in which Russia would see its territorial integrity threatened, for example, if the West were to deliver ATACMS missiles to Ukraine or if at some point Ukrainian forces were to penetrate territory considered Russian, as would be the case in Crimea, annexed by Russia in 2014. The second scenario would be if Russia were to consider NATO to be directly involved in military operations. So far, the US and other countries provide intelligence and weaponry to Ukraine, but are not involved in the design and conduct of operations. If the planning of operations were joint, Russia might consider the countries involved in the planning to be an active party to the conflict. Finally, the third scenario is linked to the survival of the regime itself. In the current context, hypothetical anti-regime demonstrations and revolts could be interpreted as proof of NATO’s direct involvement in Russia, which would also lead to escalation.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

In an interview with CTXT<\/em><\/a>, retired General Harald Kujat, former Inspector General of the German Armed Forces and former Chairman of the NATO-Russia Council and the Euro-Atlantic Partnership Council of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, argues that the war in Ukraine is not only a military conflict, but also an economic and information war in which moral or ideological motives also play a prominent role. He also argues that the longer the war goes on, the more difficult it will be to achieve a negotiated peace. The Russian annexation of four Ukrainian territories last September is an example of this development that is difficult to reverse. It is therefore regrettable that the negotiations in Istanbul in March broke down after much progress and an entirely positive outcome for Ukraine. Russia had apparently agreed to withdraw its forces to the borders of 23 February, i.e. before the invasion began. Complete withdrawal is now repeatedly demanded as a precondition for negotiations. In return, Ukraine had pledged to renounce NATO membership and not to allow the stationing of foreign troops or military facilities while the future of the Donbas territories had to be resolved diplomatically within 15 years, explicitly renouncing military force. While stressing that Ukraine is fighting for the country’s freedom, sovereignty and territorial integrity, Kujat points out that the two main actors in this war are Russia and the US, as Ukraine is also fighting for the geopolitical interests of the US, whose stated goal is to weaken Russia politically, economically and militarily in order to focus solely on China, the only geopolitical rival capable of threatening its supremacy as a world power.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

In The New York Times<\/em><\/a>, <\/em>Ross Douthat warns of the dangers and costs of a protracted war and argues that the next phase of the conflict – a new Russian offensive and a potential Ukrainian counter-offensive – seems inevitable by late winter or early spring. The Ukrainian vision of how this escalation might play out was outlined by Mykhailo Podolyak, a key advisor to President Volodymyr Zelensky, in a recent interview with Bruno Ma\u00e7\u00e3es in The New Statesman<\/em><\/a>. Continued Western economic, financial and military support will increase the likelihood of an all-out Ukrainian victory, and in this case Douthat argues that US strategy will have to focus on the dilemmas of success: the dangers of a desperate Russian nuclear gamble, the risks inherent in any kind of internal Russian power struggle, and the potential dangers of an even more nationalist successor regime. But if Podolyak’s predictions do not come true, and if escalation is followed by a return to a stalemate, analysts predicting a protracted war may end up being right. And then the Biden administration will have to decide whether a conflict extending to 2025 and beyond is in the US national interest.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

In this regard, in a recent paper published by the think tank RAND<\/a>, Samuel Charap and Miranda Priebe consider that this is not the case. On the one hand, the benefits for the US of a long war would be that post-conflict Ukraine would potentially become more economically viable. A protracted war would impose continued punishment on Russia, reinforcing the norm against external aggression, and would encourage increased military spending among European allies and the disconnection of Western economies from Russian energy. On the other hand, however, a protracted war would also entail many costs, as it would maintain the risk of direct conflict between NATO and Russia and postpone indefinitely the limitation of nuclear armaments. A protracted war would also require constant flows of money and weapons, which would threaten to deplete US military resources at a time of increasing rivalry with China. It would also increase the death toll and threaten to leave Ukraine in a badly damaged economic and demographic situation.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

In Catalonia, current events are focused on the review of the sentencing of Catalan pro-independence supporters following the reform of the Criminal Code. The main conclusion is that, following the same criterion as that of the investigator Pablo Llarena, the Supreme Court sentences Oriol Junqueras, Ra\u00fcl Romeva, Jordi Turull and Dolors Bassa for the crimes of embezzlement and disobedience and maintains their disqualification until 2031. On the other hand, the sentence extinguishes the disqualification sentences against Jordi S\u00e1nchez, Jordi Cuixart, Josep Rull, Joaquim Forn and Carme Forcadell thanks to the review of offences. The court’s ruling also argues why it considers that the 1 October referendum should be prosecuted under the precepts of serious and not attenuated embezzlement, which would imply the removal of prison sentences and the reduction of disqualification sentences according to the new Penal Code. In this sense, it points out that Romeva, Rull and Bassa cannot benefit from the attenuated offence because, according to the criteria of the SC, it cannot be considered that it was a non-profit action. The ruling underlines that article 432 of the Criminal Code includes in the offence both those who appropriate these funds and those who, in breach of their duty of loyalty to the administration, decide to give them an unequivocally illegal purpose. With regard to the consequences of this judgement, Lola Garc\u00eda points out in La Vanguardia<\/em><\/a> that, first of all, the Supreme Court removes Oriol Junqueras from the political front line. Speculation about the ERC leader’s return was the order of the day, and there was a possibility that he would be a candidate for the presidency of the Generalitat in elections that, in principle, are scheduled for early 2025. Secondly, within Junts per Catalunya<\/em>, the one who benefits from this judicial decision is Josep Rull, who was not convicted of embezzlement and who now sees his disqualification sentence disappear. In recent months, Rull’s name has been highlighted as one of Junts per Catalunya<\/em>‘s possible candidates for the presidency of the Generalitat. Joaquim Forn is in the same situation, so he could occupy a place, for example, in the Barcelona City Council if Xavier Trias wins the mayoralty. Thirdly, the Supreme Court does consider that the crime of sedition can be substituted for that of aggravated public disorder in the case of Jordi Cuixart and Jordi S\u00e0nchez. This is one of the undesired effects that human rights organisations feared would happen, as the reform makes it easier for judges to apply harsher sentences to activists who participate in certain protests. Fourth, Pedro S\u00e1nchez’s original intention was to lower the penalties for sedition, in theory to bring them in line with those in force in other European countries, but in the end, he opted to eliminate the offence and modify embezzlement. Now the Supreme Court has ruled by opting for the aggravated type of embezzlement, so it may even be that some leaders who are still awaiting trial will receive a longer sentence than before the reform. Finally, the SC reprimanded the government for decriminalising any attempt at independence of a territory by means of the continued alteration of institutions, even if there is no violence. This is why it has tried to alleviate this situation by preventing most of those convicted from returning to active politics. The message sent by the SC is clear: the government leaves the state unprotected and it is the judges who prevent, as far as they can, those they consider to be seditious from trying again.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

In European affairs, the breaking news of Nicola Sturgeon’s resignation as SNP leader and First Minister of Scotland marks the end of an era. After being Alex Salmond’s deputy since 2004, she became leader of the party in 2014 following the independence referendum and her withdrawal will inevitably have a major impact on the independence movement. Significantly, Sturgeon has linked her decision to step down to the SNP conference on independence in Edinburgh on 19 March. This conference will have to decide what strategy to follow once the UK Supreme Court ruled that the Scottish Parliament cannot hold an independence referendum without Westminster’s approval. As such, the SNP will have to decide whether to turn the next UK general election into a de facto referendum.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

For her part, Judith Arnal states in Slate<\/em><\/a> whether Europe, in trying to reduce its dependence on Russia, is increasing its economic dependence on other countries, mainly China, which is the world’s second largest economy, but pursues a different economic and social model from that of the EU, with different geopolitical interests. Hence the importance, stressed by the author, of carrying out an analysis to detect possible points of vulnerability, to which solutions will have to be found. A first area where China’s role stands out is in the extraction and refining of essential raw materials needed for the ecological and digital transformations of European economies. Taking into account the economic importance of the material and the risk associated with its supply, the European Commission draws up a list of critical raw materials for the EU every three years. The latest, from 2020, reveals that 98% of the rare earths consumed by the EU come from China. The EU is aware of the vulnerability of its dependence on these critical raw materials, and will present in the coming months a proposal for a regulation on them in order to strengthen its supply chains. But China’s role in the European economy’s green transition goes beyond raw materials. In 2021, 89% of solar panels and 64% of wind turbines imported by the EU came from China. The top five solar inverter manufacturers, with a market share of more than 60% in 2022, led by Huawei, are also of Chinese origin. Chinese companies also play a key role in the EU’s digital transformation. The relatively lower cost and technical quality offered by Chinese 4G and 5G providers such as Huawei and ZTE have led many European operators to choose these companies for the deployment of mobile technologies. Ultimately, the EU’s dependence on China has increased in the wake of the conflict in Ukraine and plans to accelerate green and digital transitions. However, it seems that the EU has learned its lesson and has identified the main drivers of dependence on China, and we will have to watch out for proposals to be put forward by the European Commission in the coming months.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

In Social Europe<\/em><\/a>, <\/em>Guido Montani warns that the war in Ukraine is calling into question the idea of a peaceful Europe. Both the First and Second World Wars have been seen by many experts as European civil wars, and the process of European unification was based precisely on avoiding new wars in Europe. The ongoing conflict in Ukraine puts this ideal at risk and could lead to the establishment of a new iron curtain in Europe, which would be a defeat for the European Union and its core values as it would mean that the EU has not assumed its responsibility for foreign and security policy. Today, a new European convention is proposed to address these unresolved issues. Some voices argue, however, against reforms that go beyond economic and monetary integration. There is talk of strategic autonomy in foreign policy, but Montani believes that the real issue is one of European independence from the US and that the transatlantic relationship should be a partnership of equals. He also argues that the EU should take the lead in presenting a peace plan, drawing on the model of the 1973 Conference on Security and Cooperation in Europe, which led to the formation of the Organisation for Security and Cooperation in Europe. In short, unless the EU fulfils its geopolitical aspirations, the danger of a new Iron Curtain on the continent is very real and Europe needs to take the lead to avoid a full-scale military confrontation.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

For his part, Lu\u00eds Lobo-Fernandes points out in P\u00fablico<\/em><\/a> that the question of the stability of Western democracies in an increasingly volatile scenario has recently been raised. He believes that reflection on the evolution of the global geopolitical scene requires a comparison of the different international sub-systems. Broadly speaking, the political West is a pacified space, based on democratic codes, the rule of law, free elections and the social market economy. It is characterised by a high institutional and normative density in which the defence and promotion of human rights emerge as central elements. In contrast, the Asian sub-system largely recreates 19th century balance of power Europe, where the security dilemma is a central factor. In this macro-region, ideology plays a marginal role in relations between major powers. The likelihood of conflict between strategic rivals (China, Japan, the two Koreas, India, Pakistan, Russia) is quite likely, fuelled by major sources of tension and factors of instability. The Greater Middle East, in turn, is a sub-system characterised by great instability and, perhaps, even greater political volatility. Moreover, conflicts there continue to be fuelled by religious motives. Indeed, the use of religion as an ostensible instrument and motive for foreign and security policies must be considered. The immense energy resources and problems, as well as its key strategic location, enhance the extreme sensitivity and political volatility of the entire Middle East, a space where Saudi Arabia, Iran and Turkey assume new ambitions and prominence. Finally, the sub-Saharan sub-system configures a complicated scenario for the construction of post-colonial states, still marked by endemic political instability. The concept of the “unfinished state” enshrines perhaps the most interesting theoretical image in the characterisation of contemporary state dilemmas in sub-Saharan Africa.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

In the economic field, The Economist<\/em><\/a> points out how a global recession could be avoided. If 2022 was a particularly tough year for global markets, 2023 is off to a different start. Many indices such as the Euro Stoxx 600 and Hong Kong’s Hang Seng have made a good start to the year. If until recently the global recession seemed to be a fact of life, the situation is now generating more optimism. Despite announcements of a global recession in the wake of the Ukraine invasion, economic indicators have held up better than expected. Moreover, data indicate that OECD consumer confidence has risen after reaching a record low in the summer. Labour markets also appear resilient and in most countries unemployment is still low. On the inflation front, it is still too early to tell whether the worst is over. In the first world, core inflation is still well above what central banks consider tolerable, although in some countries, for example in the US, it is declining. Even so, The Economist warns that there are still dangerous factors and central banks have a long way to go before inflation can be said to be under control, especially as the reopening with China is pushing up commodity prices.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

In Open Democracy<\/em><\/a>, <\/em>James Meadway says that many economists point out that the financial shocks of recent years are forcing the global monetary architecture to change. The global economic order centred around the pre-eminence of the US dollar is beginning to unravel. The first indicators pointing to a destabilisation come from two relevant news items. On the one hand, Saudi Arabia’s finance minister has stated that they have no objection to selling oil in a currency other than the US dollar. On the other, Brazil and Argentina have announced that they will seek to use a new currency for bilateral trade, thus establishing a new instrument separate from the dollar system. These changes suggest that major economies are beginning to move away from the dollar-dominated global system. The 2008 global financial crisis demonstrated the disruptive power of the United States, as it was able to stabilise the rest of the global economy through a system of Federal Reserve swaplines, which offered cheap dollars to politically favoured countries. This power dynamic has created incentives for certain countries to withdraw from the dollar-centred international monetary system and start trading in other currencies.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

On sustainability and climate change, Charlotte Bez and Lorenzo Feltrin argue in Social Europe<\/em><\/a> that tackling deindustrialisation and environmental degradation does not require a technological solution but a political alternative. Rising energy prices are a concern for low-income households, while the energy crisis affects industry in two ways: dependence on fossil fuels leads to cost increases, while the transition to renewable energies entails economic restructuring with job losses and increased demand for raw materials. We are thus faced with the paradox of the phenomenon of harmful deindustrialisation (ND), where the decline in manufacturing employment is accompanied by increased environmental degradation, a trend evident in Europe, where the share of manufacturing industry in total employment has fallen from 24% to 15% in the last two decades. This has resulted in the naturalisation of the ‘right to pollute’ in which the most polluted areas also suffer social deprivation. There are two different patterns: Grey ND and Green ND, which differ with respect to their technology and their impact on employment and the environment. Grey ND occurs in low-income regions with obsolete technologies, where factories are the main polluters but also provide the majority of jobs, while Green ND takes place in areas with advanced technology and less pollution, but with a decrease in jobs due to the intensive use of labour-saving technology.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Finally, in the field of new technologies, James Somer notes in The New Yorker<\/em><\/a> some of the radical changes that have recently taken place in the world of Artificial Intelligence (AI). Thus, Whisper.cpp, a rare software that transcribes speech in more than 90 languages, published by OpenAI, the same organisation that launched ChatGPT and DALL-E, stands out. OpenAI made the code and architecture of the model public, allowing anyone to modify it, and that is a radical change in the world of AI, as everyone could turn their device into an intelligent machine. Despite the complexity of speech recognition, the shift to using general methods that leverage computation has been the most effective way to advance the field of AI. As Rich Sutton stated in his influential essay The Bitter Lesson<\/em><\/a> (2019), the goal of AI research should be to build actors that can learn like humans, rather than programmes with pre-existing knowledge. The impact of open source software in the AI field, such as the voice recognition tool Whisper, is becoming a staple for other applications. As it becomes more accessible, people will be able to modify and adapt software for their own purposes, leading to a faster pace of innovation. The sensation of the moment ChatGPT<\/a> is an example of accessible AI technology, although some of its potential is limited by OpenAI’s control over its access and use.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

From another point of view, David Brooks argues in The New York Times<\/em><\/a> that AI will provide us with fantastic tools that will help us to outsource much of our work. This AI, however, is lacking a humanistic core, the passion, the pain, the longing and the personal experiences of a human being. Therefore, he believes that AI will force humans to increase the talents and skills that only they possess. First, a different personal voice. AI is used to producing bureaucratic and impersonal prose. Second, presentation skills Develop the ability to create and deliver a good speech that connects with the audience, skills that Brooks says AI will not be able to replicate. Third, a flair for creativity that gives the opportunity to execute and hone imaginative capacity. Fourth, an original worldview seeking to build the mind with the knowledge and worldviews of distant times in order to construct thought. Fifth, the empathy needed to understand another person’s perspective. This skill is very valuable and beyond the reach of AI as it aspires to possess large volumes of data about everyone and no one in particular. Finally, situational awareness, i.e. developing an intuitive awareness of each situation. Ultimately, then, AI will force us to clearly distinguish knowledge that is useful information from humanistic knowledge that makes people wiser and more transformative.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Ton conclude, Pablo Bustinduy claims in P\u00fablico<\/em><\/a> that a deep disarray seems to have spread in global economic policy. The latest episode has been the recently declared subsidy war between the United States and the European Union. At the root of the dispute is the Biden administration’s endorsement of the Inflation Reduction Act<\/em><\/a>, a massive public spending programme with which Washington aims to boost the energy transition, develop strategic economic sectors and underpin the country’s reindustrialisation. After the previous economic stimulus packages, the infrastructure construction bill and the expansion of social protection programmes, this major return of US industrial policy is the fourth pillar of so-called Bidenomics, a macroeconomic paradigm shift aimed at preparing the country for the new phase of hegemonic competition with China while trying to close the social wound that Trumpism created. The author warns that this paradigm shift in US policy involves subverting some of the balances on which the Atlantic consensus on globalisation has been built. The European Union, in fact, has denounced Washington’s initiative as a massive programme of covert state aid, and thus a violation of the standards imposed by the World Trade Organisation. In a way, this is globalisation in reverse: instead of relocations, what is feared in times of reshoring is the relocation of strategic activities to the major centres of geopolitical and industrial power. This is why the Commission has leaked its angry response to the plan, in open contradiction to what it is supposed to denounce: a relaxation of state subsidies in strategic companies, and therefore of competition rules themselves, which will lead to the creation of an EU sovereign wealth fund and strategic reindustrialisation plans. The message from Brussels is therefore that the EU is also preparing to enter the competition for the new industrial policy. In recent years, the Commission has already relaxed state aid criteria twice. The Stability Pact has been suspended for more than two years. For the first time in its history, Brussels has issued debt and made direct transfers to its member states. In short, in the world of polycrisis and polycentric globalisation, no one seems to be banking on the logic of the market, free trade and unlimited capital mobility to address the great challenges ahead. The spectre of China, which has never participated in this logic and has had the upper hand for years in planning the next phase, looms over this new interventionism. Hence the virulence of the technology wars and the accompanying re-industrialisation drive: the challenge is to undo the inertia of Chinese development and rapidly rebuild the forces and capabilities of the Atlantic axis.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

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Illustration: Israel Vargas for the The New Republic<\/em>.<\/sub><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Ada Ailin Brito, Marc Espigares and Jiajin Angel Lin, trainees at the CETC have participated in this issue of Diari de les idees<\/em>.<\/sub><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

This fortnight’s edition of Diari de les idees highlights, among other relevant topics, the reflection on the concept of escalation that is taking place as a result of the announcement of the sending of battle tanks to Ukraine by its Western allies; the political, social and economic consequences of the earthquake that has devastated Turkey and Syria; the Spanish Supreme Court ruling reviewing the conviction of Catalan independence supporters following the reform of the Penal Code; changes in the global monetary architecture increasingly less centred on the pre-eminence of the US dollar; and some of the recent innovations in the\u2026<\/p>\n","protected":false},"featured_media":76597,"template":"","category_newspaper":[563],"segment":[],"subject":[],"class_list":["post-62596","newspaper","type-newspaper","status-publish","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category_newspaper-563"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"\nDiari de les idees 77 – IDEES<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/revistaidees.cat\/en\/analisis\/diari-de-les-idees\/diari-de-les-idees-77\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Diari de les idees 77 – IDEES\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"This fortnight’s edition of Diari de les idees highlights, among other relevant topics, the reflection on the concept of escalation that is taking place as a result of the announcement of the sending of battle tanks to Ukraine by its Western allies; 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