{"id":63091,"date":"2023-04-06T08:30:15","date_gmt":"2023-04-06T06:30:15","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/revistaidees.cat\/?post_type=newspaper&p=63091"},"modified":"2023-04-19T13:52:55","modified_gmt":"2023-04-19T11:52:55","slug":"canvi-de-peces-al-tauler-geopolitic-deurasia","status":"publish","type":"newspaper","link":"https:\/\/revistaidees.cat\/en\/analisis\/diari-de-les-idees\/canvi-de-peces-al-tauler-geopolitic-deurasia\/","title":{"rendered":"Geopolitical changes in Eurasia"},"content":{"rendered":"\n

In this edition of Diari de les idees<\/em> we want to highlight two trends that are shaping current events and that are likely to have a major impact in the future. On the one hand, the large-scale geopolitical reshaping that is taking place in a vast area stretching from the Eastern Mediterranean to the Caspian Sea. On the other hand, the expectations and misgivings raised by the accelerated development of Artificial Intelligence (AI) from an environmental, economic and strategic point of view.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

New paradigm in the Middle East and Caucasus: China\u2019s growing influence<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

The agreement signed between Iran and Saudi Arabia under the auspices of China that puts an end to seven years of diplomatic rupture between the two countries speaks volumes about the changes taking place in the Middle East, where the progressive increase of Chinese influence through trade and strategic agreements in the framework of the New Silk Road. It coincides with the disengagement of the United States from the Indo-Pacific region and the war in Ukraine, which has led Gulf countries to question the reliability of the US as a guarantor of security and stability in the region. Thus, Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, Turkey and other countries in the region are strengthening their ties with China and Russia while re-engaging with other regional actors, such as Syria and Egypt.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The other scenario in which significant strategic changes are taking place is the Caucasus, where the Great Game<\/em>, as the British called the strategic rivalry with Russia in Central Asia throughout the 19th century, seems to be repeating itself, albeit with other actors. A dispute that in the 21st century is shifting further west, from Central Asia to the Caucasus, a region in which almost all states, despite trying to maintain Russia’s support, are moving progressively closer to China, which is a source of concern for the Kremlin.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Historical players in the regional checkerboard are losing their influence, as is the case in the Middle East. Britain, for centuries a major player in the region, has completely disappeared and the US is becoming a minor player after its chaotic exit from Afghanistan. The new emerging power is Turkey, along with Azerbaijan, which increases tensions with an Armenia that is entirely dependent on Russia for security, in a context where the latent conflicts in the Moscow-guarded breakaway republics of Abkhazia and South Ossetia remain unresolved. In a historically unstable region, where ethnic and religious conflicts are rife and foreign powers have always played a decisive role, seventy years of authoritarian rule by the USSR had ensured relative peace. Now, the war in Ukraine has shown that territorial aggression is less unlikely than previously thought, and the entire region is in the midst of a tit-for-tat between Russia, China, the West and Turkey.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

On the other hand, it is also necessary to consider what the consequences of this regional realignment will be for Israel, where the Netanyahu government’s response will largely depend on how the issue of the Iranian nuclear deal evolves. Moreover, the radicalisation of the Tel Aviv government under the influence of far right and ultra-religious parties is challenging the idea of Israel as a bastion of Western-style liberal democracy in a region frequented by Islamic autocracies.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Ultimately, in the context of this paradigm shift, China is asserting itself as a key strategic actor for the future of the Middle East and no longer merely as a trading partner.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The evolving impact of Artificial Intelligence: assessing the risks to continue moving forward<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Regarding the dangers of the accelerated development of Artificial Intelligence (AI), a few days ago the Future of Life Institute published an open letter<\/a> signed by more than 2,500 experts and entrepreneurs (including Elon Musk, one of the founders of OpenAI, Steve Wozniak, co-founder of Apple and Yuval Noah Harari). They argue the need for a minimum 6-month moratorium on the training of more powerful AI systems. The signatories question whether it is worth letting AI advances impact society and the environment without assessing and controlling their risks, and without regulation, as has been the case so far.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Everyday actions such as consulting the best route for our journeys or translating a text require large amounts of energy, water and mineral resources, but everything points to the fact that needs will skyrocket with the progress of generative AI, which requires a lot of computational power. In this regard, the AI Now Institute<\/a> warned two years ago that the planetary costs associated with this technology are rising steadily. At the same time, some scientists estimated four years ago that the technology sector would account for 14% of global emissions in 2040, while others claim that the energy demand of data centres will increase 15-fold by 2030. Beyond C02 emissions, the consumption of water resources for cooling systems, as well as the reliance on rare metals to make electronic components, mean that AI is a technology with a major impact on the environment.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

On the other hand, AI also raises other challenges and concerns, from the actual technology to anticipation to geopolitics to the difficulty of having a precise definition of AI. For example, the definition of AI in the European Parliament’s proposed regulation (Artificial Intelligence Act<\/a>) has changed numerous times to distinguish this disruptive technology from traditional computer software. In contrast, one of the definitions given by the OECD<\/a> does not mention generative systems capable of producing new textual or image content, as opposed to so-called specialised predictive AI systems. There are also concerns about the transfer of these technologies to military uses, disinformation or surveillance, making them a vector of influence capable of disrupting strategic balances. Mastering AI has already become a geopolitical issue, with Vladimir Putin<\/a> stating in 2017 that whoever masters AI will dominate the world, and since then the global race has only accelerated.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Finally, at the economic level, a study<\/a> by Dynabench\/Our World in Data reveals that if this technology reaches the levels of sophistication it promises, it could eliminate a quarter of jobs in the United States and the Eurozone, and a fifth globally, equivalent to some 300 million jobs in the major economies. Those most at risk will be clerks, lawyers, architects, scientists, salespeople and computer scientists. Education is a case apart, as it is one of the sectors most susceptible to automation, as has already been seen in schools and universities (Oxford, Cambridge and Sciences Po), which have banned the use of technology to prevent plagiarism among students. In the short term, therefore, the effects of AI could have a negative impact on the labour market, but the study also indicates that in the long term, new technologies may have positive effects, creating jobs that did not exist before, as well as significantly increasing the productivity of companies. Ultimately, we do not know yet when this will happen \u2013it depends on advances in technology and regulation\u2013 but experience shows that labour market productivity explodes 20 years after the onset of technology.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\n\n\n\n

Photography: Adobe Stock.<\/sup><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Mar\u00eda Garc\u00eda and Anal\u00eda Cortez, trainee students at the CETC, have participated in this issue of Diari de les idees<\/em>.<\/sup><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

In this edition of Diari de les idees we want to highlight two trends that are shaping current events and that are likely to have a major impact in the future. On the one hand, the large-scale geopolitical reshaping that is taking place in a vast area stretching from the Eastern Mediterranean to the Caspian Sea. On the other hand, the expectations and misgivings raised by the accelerated development of Artificial Intelligence (AI) from an environmental, economic and strategic point of view. New paradigm in the Middle East and Caucasus: China\u2019s growing influence The agreement signed between Iran and Saudi\u2026<\/p>\n","protected":false},"featured_media":63048,"template":"","category_newspaper":[563],"segment":[],"subject":[],"class_list":["post-63091","newspaper","type-newspaper","status-publish","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category_newspaper-563"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"\nGeopolitical changes in Eurasia – IDEES<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/revistaidees.cat\/en\/analisis\/diari-de-les-idees\/canvi-de-peces-al-tauler-geopolitic-deurasia\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Geopolitical changes in Eurasia – IDEES\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"In this edition of Diari de les idees we want to highlight two trends that are shaping current events and that are likely to have a major impact in the future. 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