{"id":64796,"date":"2023-10-26T07:59:55","date_gmt":"2023-10-26T05:59:55","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/revistaidees.cat\/analisis\/diari-de-les-idees\/diari-de-les-idees-errors-i-horrors-a-terra-santa\/"},"modified":"2023-10-27T09:54:35","modified_gmt":"2023-10-27T07:54:35","slug":"diari-de-les-idees-errors-i-horrors-a-terra-santa","status":"publish","type":"newspaper","link":"https:\/\/revistaidees.cat\/en\/analisis\/diari-de-les-idees\/diari-de-les-idees-errors-i-horrors-a-terra-santa\/","title":{"rendered":"Diari de les idees – Errors and horrors in the Holy Land"},"content":{"rendered":"\n

Hamas’s surprise attack on 7 October marks a new stage in the long-running Middle East conflict as the Palestinians regain a central position and Israel’s losses will surely define a turning point in the history of the Israeli-Palestinian conflict. Before this attack, Hamas was at a dead end where it had only two options. On the one hand, to accept Israeli logic and become a mere manager of the Gaza Strip, as is the discredited Palestinian Authority in the West Bank. On the other hand, to reject this role, to jump the pieces on the chessboard by taking advantage of the desperation of the inhabitants of the Strip. In addition, to legitimise itself in a territory that has been under a sea, air and land blockade since 2007, where more than two thirds of the population lives below the poverty line and the unemployment rate is 75% among the under-29s.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The timing of the incursion into Israeli territory coincided with a context favourable to a large-scale attack. The discontent generated in Israel by the attacks on the rule of law pursued by Netanyahu’s ultra-orthodox, national-religious coalition government has caused a rift that Hamas has sought to exploit. The international situation also presents a scenario in which the tectonic plates of geopolitics are shifting (the status quo in Nagorno-Karabakh is broken, coups d’\u00e9tat are taking place in Africa) and relations in the region are being reconfigured, as demonstrated by the agreement<\/a> between Iran and Saudi Arabia and the Abraham Accords<\/a> that normalised Israel’s relations with the Gulf countries.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Hamas’s attack seems to have a twofold objective: on the one hand, to provoke Israel in order to undermine the normalisation of its relations with the Arab world – especially with Saudi Arabia, the region’s main power and Iran’s rival – and, on the other, to regain the support it has been losing among a local population that is increasingly dissatisfied with its form of government. Moreover, the attack and Israel’s forceful military response also serve the aims of global jihadist organisations such as al-Qaeda and the Islamic State, which will surely seek to capitalise on the anger of the Palestinian population and the wider Muslim community to mobilise their supporters against Western targets.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The geopolitical repercussions of the conflict are numerous and have a global impact insofar as they affect all actors on the international stage. For the United States, the war marks the end of the illusion of a withdrawal from the Middle East in order to focus its attention on its competition with China. At the time of the attack, the Biden administration was trying to reduce its involvement in the region by promoting new alliances, especially between Israel and Saudi Arabia, while seeking to ease tensions with Iran.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

For its part, the European Union is demonstrating its limitations as a relevant actor in major conflicts, and while EU foreign ministers are lost in contradictory declarations and internal discussions, real diplomacy flows through other channels. The US is the only Western power having influence over the Israeli government, Recep Tayyip Erdogan has offered to act as mediator, and so has Vladimir Putin.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Historically, China has stayed out of Middle Eastern conflicts, but this has been changing in recent years as Beijing seeks to link its economic influence with growing political grip. The crisis is an opportunity to set itself up as a mediator in the region, to gain ground on the US in an area where China has no experience, and to strengthen its ties with the Arab world.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The war could bring a double benefit to Russia: a new boost to its ailing economy through higher oil and gas prices, while the failure of US plans for the Middle East would serve Russian (and Iranian) interests by postponing indefinitely the peace deal being negotiated between Israel and Saudi Arabia. The Russian president’s new ally, Iran, is also closely following the conflict insofar as it can serve its interests. On the one hand, Israel’s forceful response may dampen the interest of Saudi Arabia and other Arab states in normalising relations with Israel. On the other hand, if Israel eventually enters the Strip, this could provoke a Palestinian revolt in East Jerusalem or the West Bank, leading to a possible generalisation of the conflict through the intervention of Hezbollah – sponsored by Tehran – which would threaten to spread the war to Lebanon and Syria.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Although at this stage it is daring to engage in any foresight exercise, it seems that the war will be long and hard. Israeli forces need to wrest control of the territory from Hamas to demonstrate to the Palestinians that their militias do not guarantee their security. To do so, they do not need to occupy the entire Strip, but they do need to dismantle Hamas’s military prestige and challenge its leadership, otherwise Hamas will increase its influence over the other groups in Gaza and the West Bank to the detriment of Fatah and the Palestinian Authority. In this sense, the declaration of war breaks the familiar pattern of armed confrontation between Israel and Hamas and elevates military operations to a higher level. The strategic difficulties of operations on the ground, coupled with diplomatic, social and economic obstacles, point to the possibility that the war will drag on and harden until either one side prevails or both sides realise their inability to defeat their adversary.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Israel’s war and post-war plans are still uncertain and envisage four main scenarios. First, a prolonged occupation of Gaza, like the one it carried out between 1967 and 2005, with the human and economic cost, and the political attrition that this entails. Second, fighting a short, devastating war that dismantles Hamas’s military apparatus and then leaving the territory, which would leave the door open for another militia to take its place. A better option would be the return of the Palestinian Authority, which already rules the West Bank in coordination with Israel, but this path is fraught with obstacles as the new government would likely be a target for what remains of Hamas forces, Islamic Jihad and other militias. Finally, there is the option of creating a kind of alternative administration, composed of local notables working closely with Israel and Egypt, as was the case until the 1990s before the Palestinian Authority began to assume governance of the occupied territories.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Finally, it is worth noting that, by attacking kibbutz and a music festival, Hamas has struck directly at the heart of the Zionist dream, thus exposing a triple political failure on Israel’s part. Indeed, the main goal of the Zionist movement was to offer Jews a place where they could live normally, creating a society that was fully Jewish but also modern and secular. However, this normalisation has been constantly challenged since 1948. Another goal of Zionism was that the creation of a Jewish state would bring welfare and security to Jews, but the opposite seems to have happened: Israel is a country that is permanently on military alert, either because of low-intensity attacks, such as terrorist attacks, or because of larger threats from Iran or the Arab countries. This is the paradox in which the Jewish state finds itself: although Israel has managed to create a solid state, with a powerful army and a modern economy, the goal of living normally seems to have failed completely.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\n\n\n\n

Photography: Adobe Stock<\/sub><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Flavia Villanueva and Marta Vicente, trainee students at the CETC have participated in this issue of Diari de les idees<\/em>.<\/sub><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Hamas’s surprise attack on 7 October marks a new stage in the long-running Middle East conflict as the Palestinians regain a central position and Israel’s losses will surely define a turning point in the history of the Israeli-Palestinian conflict. Before this attack, Hamas was at a dead end where it had only two options. On the one hand, to accept Israeli logic and become a mere manager of the Gaza Strip, as is the discredited Palestinian Authority in the West Bank. On the other hand, to reject this role, to jump the pieces on the chessboard by taking advantage of\u2026<\/p>\n","protected":false},"featured_media":64766,"template":"","category_newspaper":[563],"segment":[],"subject":[],"class_list":["post-64796","newspaper","type-newspaper","status-publish","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category_newspaper-563"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"\nDiari de les idees - Errors and horrors in the Holy Land – IDEES<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/revistaidees.cat\/en\/analisis\/diari-de-les-idees\/diari-de-les-idees-errors-i-horrors-a-terra-santa\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Diari de les idees - Errors and horrors in the Holy Land – IDEES\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"Hamas’s surprise attack on 7 October marks a new stage in the long-running Middle East conflict as the Palestinians regain a central position and Israel’s losses will surely define a turning point in the history of the Israeli-Palestinian conflict. 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