{"id":67497,"date":"2023-12-21T08:33:25","date_gmt":"2023-12-21T06:33:25","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/revistaidees.cat\/analisis\/diari-de-les-idees\/diari-de-les-idees-lany-de-les-dues-guerres\/"},"modified":"2023-12-21T09:26:49","modified_gmt":"2023-12-21T07:26:49","slug":"diari-de-les-idees-lany-de-les-dues-guerres","status":"publish","type":"newspaper","link":"https:\/\/revistaidees.cat\/en\/analisis\/diari-de-les-idees\/diari-de-les-idees-lany-de-les-dues-guerres\/","title":{"rendered":"Diari de les idees \u2013 The year of two wars"},"content":{"rendered":"\n

The present year, now coming to an end, has been a complicated one considering the objects of analysis of Diari de les Idees<\/em>. This is due to the fact that disruptive forces have had a strong impact: a worsening of the institutional crisis in world governance caused by two great ongoing wars in Ukraine and the Middle East, lukewarm compromises on climate change, increasing risks for democracies due to the rise of populist movements and the doubts generated by a great leap forward in the field of artificial intelligence. This year, we have given special attention to the changes in the Eurasian geopolitical chessboard, Europe\u2019s place in the world, turbulences in the global economic system, authoritarian temptations and the new hybrid right-wing, geopolitical challenges presented by war in the Middle East and the electoral process in Spain and Argentina.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

In the sphere of international politics, the year has been characterized by military conflict of varying intensity: Ukraine, Gaza, Nagorno-Karabakh, Sudan and the coups in Africa have been and will foreseeably continue to be destruction and destabilising factors throughout the following year. This will worsen the crisis in global governance institutions, which were already not yet adapted to the change from a unipolar world to a multipolar scenario with asymmetrical alliances. There is an increasing sensation that current international order is unadjusted and in many cases dysfunctional when it comes to attending the problems and challenges posed by. Moreover, the international community does not seem to share the political will to reform these institutions, neither in its mandates and decision-making processes nor in its representativeness, considering changes in the correlation of political, economic and military forces since the end of the Cold War.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

In Europe, the impact of the war in Ukraine has led to the reactivation of accession processes for new members in a high-risk operation, since enlargement of the European Union to the east in order to integrate Ukraine and Moldova will shape the future of the continent. If the process is indeed completed, the EU will have up to 36 member states (including the Balkans and Georgia), more than 500 million inhabitants and more heterogeneity from the economic, social and cultural standpoint. It must also be pointed out that, while in previous integrations (Romania, Bulgaria and Croatia) new members mostly sought prosperity, two of the current candidates are looking for security, which gives the process high geostrategic significance. One of the numerous challenges to be solved by the EU will be the unavoidable gap between expectations and reality of its enlargement. This is a long and complex process, which may result in significant frustration, as in the case of the Balkans these last 20 years.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Frustration and disappointment also constitute a threat to liberal democracy, entrenched in a defensive position before the surge of populist movements and illiberal forces. Rising inequality has fed the global sensation that democratic institutions are not at the service of its citizens. The internet and the media in general have increased political polarisation and cultural divisions, which are easily exploited by populists. Migration crises and rapid demographic change have become a pretext for extremist discourse. Authoritarian regimes around the globe have taken advantage of the weakness of the West as a way to extend their influence. In an increasingly complex world, that faces simultaneous threats, from pandemics to climate change, the speed and strength shown by autocracies in implementing decisions has provoked that some start to question if a deliberative democracy always seeking a compromise can still face these new challenges. There is questioning of the general assumption that democracies can endure on its own once established. However, political polarisation, institutional degradation and erosion or limitation of rights and freedoms have revealed fragility in some consolidated democracies; this is the central issue for political theory at the start of the 21st<\/sup> century.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

A democratic crisis to which the turbulences that affect the global economy are not alien. According to the International Monetary Fund (IMF), global growth is expected to be 2.8% this year and average 3% the next five years, the worst perspective in the medium term since 1990. The COVID-19 pandemic shook globalisation and altered supply chains, a situation that has only worsened since the start of the energy crisis caused by the war in Ukraine, which caused the start of a high inflation period. After doubting whether the rise in prices had a structural character, central banks have been obliged to intervene by increasing interest rates. At the same time, the impact from multiple crises these last years \u2013 with the recent addition of conflict in the Middle East \u2013 has only worsened indebtedness in many developing countries, and their issues are piling up: raises in interest rates, the dollar, agricultural raw materials and the urgent necessity to find funds to fight climate change.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Climate change is not a future threat any more, but the new reality of a world where 2023 has been the hottest year ever recorded and the 2 degree climate target from the Paris Agreement in 2015 is about to be exceeded. As a result, extreme meteorological events have happened all around the world, from devastating forest fires to extreme draughts and floods. In this context, it is a good news that, for the first time, COP28 has approved an agreement that mentions reducing fossil fuel use, the main source of carbon emissions, and asks the parties to contribute to a fair, orderly and equitable transition to reach zero net emissions by 2050.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Digital technologies have transformed many aspects of our society, from the way we communicate and work to the way we consume information and entertainment. However, transition to a high-tech society has also meant a rise in social inequality and digital gap not only refers to the difficulties in access and use of digital technologies, such as computers, mobile devices and internet. It also has to do with the acquisition of digital competences: that is to say, knowledge about technology use and capacity to extract all its potential. It is therefore important that, after intense negotiations, the EU has reached a provisional agreement about the Law of Artificial Intelligence. The regulations is based on the challenges posed by high-risk AI systems; banning of AI systems that pose an unacceptable risk; transparency duties for creators, laboratories and companies; studies about impact to fundamental rights by high-risk systems deployed by public institutions; an enforcement mechanism which includes penalties for infractions and the establishment of governance organisations within the sector.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

We cannot conclude this brief overview of the year without pointing out some tendencies to give attention to that will define the following months. Firstly, 2024 is set to be a year that could determine the future of democracy and international relations. Around 70 countries with a total population over 3700 million are holding presidential or legislative elections; European elections in June and presidential elections in the US in November will deserve special attention. The result of the latter will have global consequences: climate policy, military support to Ukraine, financial regulations and the struggle for hegemony between China and the US. However, the European parliamentary election in June will also be decisive. Everything suggests it will define the destiny of Europe for the following years and determine which Europe will eventually prevail: an autocratic Europe or a democratic Europe; a disintegrating Europe or an integrating Europe; a merchant Europe or a Europe based in values.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

From the economic standpoint, while Western economies withstand 2023 better than expected, they are still not out of danger. The fact that interest rates will remain high for longer will have negative repercussions for both companies and consumers, even if major recessions are avoided. Prospects are that global economic growth will continue to slow down because of high interest rates, energy price increases and deceleration in the two main world economies. At the same time, rise of geopolitical tensions and war in Ukraine and the Middle East could also aggravate global financial perspectives.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

In spite of the agreement reached in extremis<\/em> in Dubai, the accorded measures will not lead to an immediate change neither in our everyday lives nor in the legislation of the agreeing countries. Its goal was rather to compromise on a global roadmap that each region will adapt to its own circumstances. In the European Union and Spain in particular, one of the goals will be that the Dubai agreement is reflected in its internal regulations. Meanwhile, transition to clean energy is letting new powers emerge and redefining the map of energetic resources. Lithium, copper and nickel have an increasing significance, whereas oil, gas, and the regions that control the supply are losing influence.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Finally, in the field of artificial intelligence (AI), high costs associated to conception and production of AI models, chip shortage and demands for more and better regulation will continue to favour the main players  \u2014the United States and China\u2014 whilst Europe continues to strive for its role as a main regulatory power to compensate for its weakness as content producer. There will still be the need for a debate on concerns and risks about the impact of AI on jobs, potential interference on electoral process and persistence of social, economic, racial and gender bias in its different applications.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\n\n\n\n

Photography: word cloud by David Serrano.<\/sub><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Flavia Villanueva and Joan Llurba, trainee students at the CETC, have participated in this issue of Diari de les idees<\/em>.<\/sub><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

The present year, now coming to an end, has been a complicated one considering the objects of analysis of Diari de les Idees. This is due to the fact that disruptive forces have had a strong impact: a worsening of the institutional crisis in world governance caused by two great ongoing wars in Ukraine and the Middle East, lukewarm compromises on climate change, increasing risks for democracies due to the rise of populist movements and the doubts generated by a great leap forward in the field of artificial intelligence. This year, we have given special attention to the changes in\u2026<\/p>\n","protected":false},"featured_media":65899,"template":"","category_newspaper":[563],"segment":[],"subject":[],"class_list":["post-67497","newspaper","type-newspaper","status-publish","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category_newspaper-563"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"\nDiari de les idees \u2013 The year of two wars – IDEES<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/revistaidees.cat\/en\/analisis\/diari-de-les-idees\/diari-de-les-idees-lany-de-les-dues-guerres\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Diari de les idees \u2013 The year of two wars – IDEES\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"The present year, now coming to an end, has been a complicated one considering the objects of analysis of Diari de les Idees. 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