{"id":68297,"date":"2024-01-18T08:26:52","date_gmt":"2024-01-18T06:26:52","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/revistaidees.cat\/analisis\/diari-de-les-idees\/idees-dactualitat-mar-roig-la-porta-de-les-llagrimes-del-comerc-i-la-geopolitica\/"},"modified":"2024-01-18T13:29:49","modified_gmt":"2024-01-18T11:29:49","slug":"idees-dactualitat-mar-roig-la-porta-de-les-llagrimes-del-comerc-i-la-geopolitica","status":"publish","type":"newspaper","link":"https:\/\/revistaidees.cat\/en\/analisis\/diari-de-les-idees\/idees-dactualitat-mar-roig-la-porta-de-les-llagrimes-del-comerc-i-la-geopolitica\/","title":{"rendered":"Idees d’actualitat – Red Sea: the Gate of Tears for trade and geopolitics"},"content":{"rendered":"\n

The threat presented by the Houthis is a classic case of asymmetrical war. Despite having limited means at their disposal, their role is significant enough to endanger the global economy, because freedom of navigation and stability in the maritime supply chains are crucial to the economies that heavily depend on sea freight. This is not limited to Western countries: the Red Sea represents around 15% of global maritime trade and 8% of grain, 12% of oil and 8% of liquefied natural gas go through this route.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

On the other side, even landlocked countries far from the region rely on maritime supply chains for their imports and exports. This happens in a moment where other great maritime trade routes face disruptive factors: the Panama Channel is in a fragile state due to an intense drought and the war in Ukraine has provoked serious interruptions in sea freight in the Black Sea, a key spot for the flow of food and fertilizers. Moreover, northern countries are already feeling the breath of the Russian (even the Chinese) navy because of the melting of ice in the northern seas. Therefore, the current situation in the Red Sea deepens the sensation that (taken for granted) globalisation is getting fragile, and in delays in deliveries, a sudden surge in prices or distortions that prevent the correct operation of supply chains could happen at any time.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

It is for this reason that the Houthi attacks have had such a disproportionate impact. The rises in insurance premiums and the costs of diverting ships to the Cape of Good Hope will end up having an effect on businesses and consumers, which could derive in lasting consequences on the global economy: 85% of global trade is by sea, and by the end of December 2023 traffic in the Strain was already reduced by 40%.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

All this entails a serious problem for Europe, but also for Asia; it is not by chance that container trade through the Red Sea represents 40% of commercial exchanges between both continents. From automobiles, footwear and electronics to raw materials such as rubber and palm oil. Consequently, about ten big international companies have opted for altering routes to avoid the Bab al-Mandab Strait, a list that includes shipping giants like Danish Maersk and German Hapag-Lloyd, as well as oil companies such as BP and Shell. Another problem posed by the South-African route is the delay in deliveries that has already affected some big companies. Thus, Michelin factories in Spain, which add up to 4 production centres and 7000 workers, are deactivating working shifts because of delays in reception of natural Asian rubber used in the production of tyres.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

To counter this asymmetrical threat and give an answer to the pressure exerted by shipping and insurance companies, the United States and the United Kingdom have finally launched their most massive and intense air raid campaign since 2002. These attacks, which have not been random nor arbitrary, have hit around 60 targets, including radar systems, arms depots, command centres and launching stations. However, most experts point out that these incursions have not significantly compromised Houthi military capabilities, for they can still rely on an abundant supply of Iranian-made low-cost drones. Hence, the Houthis are likely to extend the reach of their attacks to American and British ships and bases throughout the Arabian Peninsula in the following weeks.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

This international operation, named Operation Prosperity Guardian, has counted with next to no participation by US traditional allies. Only the UK has contributed significantly, and just 10 of the 20 expected countries to participate as members of the operation have publicly announced their participation. For the first time, even Australia has refused to send ships to the region, claiming lack of naval resources. The US failure to build an international coalition is quite revealing of its declining influence in the region and the loss of confidence by its allies, who want to avoid a repetition of the NATO debacle in Afghanistan.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

At the same time, the Red Sea attacks since the beginning of the conflict in Gaza have demonstrated how the so-called democratisation of destruction reduces the costs for non-state actors to access military technologies, in this case thanks to the supply of sophisticated weapons from Teheran. In spite of that, the Yemeni rebels, often regarded as mere Iranian proxies, are rather a circumstantial ally that maintains a great degree of autonomy from the Mullah\u2019s regime. The Israel-Hamas war has provided them with a new objective \u2014 the defence of the Palestinian cause \u2014 that allows them to reaffirm their relevance and revitalise their leadership in the region.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Through the interruption of freight traffic through the Red Sea and the launch of missiles to Israel, the Houthis have certainly established themselves as the only power in the Arab Peninsula to confront Israel, in contrast to regional powers such as Saudi Arabia and Egypt, which, until the October 7th<\/sup> massacre, were seeking a normalisation of relations with Israel. However, one must not forget the existence of a bloody, still ongoing conflict between the Houthis and Riyadh since 2015. The latter, despite trying to remain neutral, has played a remarkable role during the last three months in preventing some missiles launched by the Houthis from hitting Israel. The other major player in the evolution and sophistication of the weaponry used by the Houthis is Iran. While Teheran\u2019s response to this escalation throughout the region remains unclear, it seems to prefer maintaining the Houthis as a useful ally and potential scapegoat while trying to preserve the Hezbollah militia in Lebanon as its main wildcard.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Finally, regarding the consequences for the European Union, while the number of crisis had already multiplied in 2023 due to the war in Ukraine, the Hamas attacks of October the 7th<\/sup> have violently revealed the persistent security risks in the south of the continent about which southern European countries had already been warning since a while ago. Although supporting Ukraine remains the main priority for Brussels, these risks make it probable that the crisis and conflicts in the southern flank of the EU worsen at both the military and the humanitarian level.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

According to the International Crisis Group,<\/a> there has also been an increase in interethnic tensions in the Balkans and growing instability in Sudan, Ethiopia and the Sahel. This adds to the escalation in tensions in the whole Middle East, from Israel and Gaza to Iran and the Red Sea, as well as the disastrous humanitarian situation in Yemen and Libya. Regardless of the exact evolution of these conflicts, they will probably pose a massive humanitarian challenge for Europeans. In this context, beyond the corollary that these crises have with regard to migration, fighting against terrorism and ensuring security in maritime routes will require a European response in the form of a common mission (from which Spain has already detached). Ultimately, Europe will have to face the challenge of agreeing on security priorities, as well as maintaining the balance between managing the crisis and supporting Ukraine, and managing the new political, economic and social threats that result from the conflict in the Middle East.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\n\n\n\n

Photography: Dave Jenkins\/WikiCommons<\/sub><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Joan Llurba, trainee student at the CETC, participated in this issue of Idees d’actualitat<\/em>.<\/sub><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

The threat presented by the Houthis is a classic case of asymmetrical war. Despite having limited means at their disposal, their role is significant enough to endanger the global economy, because freedom of navigation and stability in the maritime supply chains are crucial to the economies that heavily depend on sea freight. This is not limited to Western countries: the Red Sea represents around 15% of global maritime trade and 8% of grain, 12% of oil and 8% of liquefied natural gas go through this route. On the other side, even landlocked countries far from the region rely on maritime\u2026<\/p>\n","protected":false},"featured_media":68288,"template":"","category_newspaper":[584],"segment":[],"subject":[],"class_list":["post-68297","newspaper","type-newspaper","status-publish","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category_newspaper-584"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"\nIdees d'actualitat - Red Sea: the Gate of Tears for trade and geopolitics – IDEES<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/revistaidees.cat\/en\/analisis\/diari-de-les-idees\/idees-dactualitat-mar-roig-la-porta-de-les-llagrimes-del-comerc-i-la-geopolitica\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Idees d'actualitat - Red Sea: the Gate of Tears for trade and geopolitics – IDEES\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"The threat presented by the Houthis is a classic case of asymmetrical war. 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