{"id":68617,"date":"2024-02-01T08:34:56","date_gmt":"2024-02-01T06:34:56","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/revistaidees.cat\/analisis\/diari-de-les-idees\/idees-dactualitat-el-conflicte-israel-hamas-implicacions-geopolitiques-i-escenaris-de-futur\/"},"modified":"2024-02-05T10:30:16","modified_gmt":"2024-02-05T08:30:16","slug":"idees-dactualitat-el-conflicte-israel-hamas-implicacions-geopolitiques-i-escenaris-de-futur","status":"publish","type":"newspaper","link":"https:\/\/revistaidees.cat\/en\/analisis\/diari-de-les-idees\/idees-dactualitat-el-conflicte-israel-hamas-implicacions-geopolitiques-i-escenaris-de-futur\/","title":{"rendered":"Idees d’actualitat – The Israel-Hamas conflict: geopolitical implications and foresights"},"content":{"rendered":"\n

The Hamas attacks and the subsequent Israeli offensive in Gaza are having a major diplomatic and security impact, not only for the Middle East but also for the Euro-Atlantic region as a whole, as it appears that maritime security will now become a central element of NATO and EU strategy on its southern flank. If attacks by Houthi militias from Yemen or directly from Iran have been disrupting shipping in the Red Sea and access to the Suez Canal for a couple of months now, it cannot be ruled out that an escalation could lead to attacks spreading to the Eastern Mediterranean, especially in the event of a large-scale conflict involving Hezbollah. If that were to happen, shipping, offshore energy platforms and submarine cables in the Mediterranean would be at risk. Thus, the region’s potential as a hub for future energy production, including renewables and new electricity interconnections, and commercial and digital infrastructures linking Europe, Asia and Africa, will depend on regional stability and the management of geopolitical risks being kept at a reasonable level.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The war with Hamas will have a lasting impact on Israel’s military strategy and economy, and there are concerns about the long-term effects of the war, as parallels can be drawn with the ‘lost decade’ between 1973 and 1982 that followed the Yom Kippur War. Defence spending, deficits and inflation rose and led to a financial crisis that could only be reversed by the implementation of an economic stabilisation plan in 1985. Although there are differences with the past, a protracted war could slow Israel’s economic growth. The IMF expects the deficit to rise to 6.6 per cent of GDP, with increased defence spending leading to cuts in civilian ministries. Moreover, the gradual return of reservists to civilian life could also have political consequences, as at the time of the Hamas attacks Israel was already in the midst of a cycle of unrest against the government’s attempts to dismantle the rule of law. Although the protests were halted by the onset of the conflict, discontent is now growing again, and more than three-quarters of Israelis want Netanyahu out of office when the war is over.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

At the same time, even if the intensity of the fighting makes it premature for some to speak of a “post-Gaza” phase, it is clear that a ceasefire cannot even be considered without beginning to consider post-war scenarios. At present, Washington’s proposal aims to ensure security through a predominantly Arab multinational force, preferably under the mandate of the UN Security Council, and the establishment of an interim Palestinian administration under the aegis of the Palestinian Authority, the only Palestinian entity recognised by all, including Israel. For its part, the Arab plan (under Riyadh’s leadership) envisages the creation of an inter-Arab executive council comprising the Palestinian Authority, Egypt, Jordan and the signatory states of the Abraham Accords<\/a>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

However, the implementation of this plan could exacerbate geopolitical rivalries between Qatar, Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates, as they all want to play a leading role. Qatar is a central player in the conflict, having hosted and financially supported Hamas’ political wing since 2012, and now leading the diplomatic initiative to secure the hostages’ release. Saudi Arabia, in competition with Iran for regional hegemony, has historically supported the Arab-Israeli peace process and could seek to install the Palestinian Authority (PA) in post-war Gaza. However, this would run up against Israeli opposition, the PA’s unpopularity among Palestinians themselves and the popularity of Hamas. For its part, the UAE, always wary of possible shifts in regional power dynamics, has been involved in providing humanitarian aid to Gaza and proposes that the enclave be managed under the leadership of a renewed PA.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The security crisis in the Red Sea is particularly damaging to Europe, insofar as it has almost halved transit through the Suez Canal, the great artificial route of maritime transit along with the Panama Canal, while costs have risen by 21% and freight rates by 150%, which is benefiting Morocco. Indeed, shipping lines are taking advantage of the crisis to increase their profits and improve their market capitalisation. They are looking for cheap, efficient and well-located ports to serve as a logistical base for the new route via the Cape of Good Hope. Morocco has the ports of Casablanca and Tangiers, which have a privileged location between the Atlantic and the Mediterranean, between Africa and Europe, high capacity facilities, lower wages and lower environmental costs, circumstances that favour more competitive rates than those of the Spanish, French and Italian ports. Morocco thus gains logistical weight and hence political power. We must also keep in mind that in exchange for the full restoration of diplomatic relations between Morocco and Israel, Tel Aviv unilaterally recognised Moroccan sovereignty over Western Sahara and is today a major supplier of arms and security systems to Morocco.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

In this context, the drone attack on US military installations in Jordan, near the Syrian border, which killed three US soldiers, is a cause for concern. Pending the results of ongoing investigations, President Joe Biden has attributed the attack to Iranian-backed radical groups operating in Syria and Iraq, while Jack Sullivan, the US National Security Advisor, has stated that instead of de-escalation, escalation is taking place. Indeed, while Iran has so far fought Israel and the United States through proxy armed groups, in recent weeks it has been its armed forces and Revolutionary Guards who have attacked a merchant ship off the coast of Oman and launched missile attacks on Syria, Pakistan and northern Iraq.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

In short, the current conflict in the Middle East (or perhaps it would be better to speak of conflicts in the plural) is taking place at a time when the struggle for hegemony is intensifying. On the one hand we have the US (which is facing an election year that could mean the return of Donald Trump to the presidency) and an EU that is increasingly residual and immersed in its recurrent crises. On the other, the consolidated Asian powers (led by China but also South Korea and Japan in economic and cultural matters, and Russia in the military sphere) and emerging powers (led by India, and also Turkey, Indonesia, the Gulf monarchies, Iran and Indonesia).<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Moreover, if there is one place in the world where friction points between the old dominant power and the new emerging power, it is the Middle East, where global dominance has historically been elucidated. For this reason crises have multiplied in this over the past year, from its northernmost tip (Nagorno-Karabakh), where Azerbaijan, with Turkey’s invaluable support, has defeated Armenia thanks to the weakness of its great Russian ally, to its southernmost tip, with Ethiopia embroiled in a terrible war in Tigray and obsessed with finding a direct outlet to the sea, culminating in the recent agreement with the breakaway region of Somaliland that provides it with a corridor to the open sea and a deep-water port.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Definitely, the major Middle Eastern powers, Turkey, Israel, Iran, Ethiopia and Saudi Arabia are most aware of the weakening of Western power, and have therefore decided to pursue their own agenda with a view to positioning themselves better on the global stage if this transfer of economic and technological power and political influence to the East is confirmed in the coming years.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\n\n\n\n

Photography: Yasser abu raya, Wikimedia Commons.<\/sub><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Joan Llurba, trainee student at the CETC has participated in this issue of Idees d’actualitat<\/em>.<\/sub><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

The Hamas attacks and the subsequent Israeli offensive in Gaza are having a major diplomatic and security impact, not only for the Middle East but also for the Euro-Atlantic region as a whole, as it appears that maritime security will now become a central element of NATO and EU strategy on its southern flank. 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