Minsk Agreements<\/a> were not honoured. Alternatively, when Russia annexed Crimea without much Western reaction beyond ad hoc economic sanctions. Thus, the Russian president wanted to take advantage of the dysfunction of Western democracies in a context marked by Brexit, Donald Trump’s presidency, the chaotic withdrawal from Afghanistan and the economic impact of the COVID-19 pandemic.<\/p>\n\n\n\nTwo years on, Ukraine has become a mirror reflecting several realities: the breakdown of the European security and defence architecture, Russia’s revisionist and revanchist policy, the resilience of the Ukrainian people, Ukraine’s dependence on Western and in particular US aid, the EU’s unity in its support for a country on its eastern flank, and the weariness of European citizens and the world at large over a conflict whose scope they fail to understand. As the war enters its third year and after the failure of the Ukrainian counteroffensive in autumn 2023, Ukraine’s survival will depend on the success of its active defence strategy, on the continuity of Western political, economic and military aid, on the capacity of its military industrialist to produce the weaponry it needs, but, above all, on the political will of Western political leaders that investing in Ukraine’s defence means deterrence, i.e. that paying the insurance premium for the risk of war with Russia will always be cheaper than a war against Russia. Ultimately, Ukraine’s future will be decided as much on the battlefield as in Washington and Brussels.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Proposals on ways to end the war are numerous and there has been recent talk of moving Ukraine to the model used on the Korean peninsula in the 1950s: the signing of an armistice, the establishment of a militarised demarcation line and a commitment to security guarantees for Ukraine. The fact that such a solution is being considered means that in some ways a Cold War-like scenario is being envisaged, with very different actors and a very different international context. The war has brought Moscow and Beijing closer together, and politically and economically isolated from the West, Russia is increasingly dependent on China as a market for its hydrocarbon exports and as a supplier of consumer goods. Moreover, China’s support for Putin has also widened the gap between China and Europe. It is no coincidence that the peace plan presented by the Chinese last year was rejected in Brussels. Another major difference from the situation between 1947 and 1991 is that China and Russia are richer today than they were in the 1950s, 1960s or 1970s.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
A good example is the surprising resilience of the Russian economy despite almost 16,500 restrictions and punitive measures imposed by the West against citizens, institutions and different sectors of the Russian economy. These sanctions were intended to damage the Kremlin’s ability to finance its war and alienate Russian elites who support the regime in the hope of precipitating its downfall. However, nothing of the sort has happened. With the cooperation of a host of countries such as Iran and North Korea, and a stimulus-doped war economy, Moscow is dodging sanctions with unsuspected effectiveness. Its economy grew by 3% last year, more than the United States, Germany, the United Kingdom or the European Union itself. Unemployment is at a record low. The banking sector has broken profit records. In addition, the value of the rouble has stabilised with a depreciation against the dollar of close to 20%, very different from the initial fall. This is because the Kremlin had long been preparing for war, not only militarily but also economically. Not only did it impose controls to prevent capital flight or high interest rates to curb inflation, but also, after many years of restrictive fiscal policies, it arrived at the war with surplus public accounts, much lower debt than its geopolitical rivals and the fourth largest foreign currency reserves in the world. As Nazi Germany or Stalin’s Soviet Union did in their day, Putin has resorted to military Keynesianism to dope up the economy. All this is reflected in the approved budget for 2024. Defence spending has risen to 6 per cent of GDP, the highest level since the fall of the USSR. The problem for the Russian economy is not a slowdown in growth or difficulties in financing the war but the overheating that economies generate when they grow too fast.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Thus, the Western prediction of the collapse of the Russian economy after eleven rounds of economic sanctions, a possible regime-changing palace coup in Moscow and Ukraine’s victory on the battlefield has not come true. On the contrary, as the third year of war begins, Russian armed forces are slowly but relentlessly advancing in four regions of south eastern Ukraine; the US Senate (where the Democratic Party has a majority) has approved a joint aid package of 90 billion aid package for Ukraine, Israel and Taiwan, but it has yet to be approved by the House of Representatives, where the Republican Party has a majority; the EU has released a 50 billion euro economic aid package, but has only delivered 600,000 shells to Ukraine out of the one million promised until March 2024.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
At the same time, political divisions in Kiev are increasingly visible. In this regard, the dismissal of General Zaluzhni as head of the armed forces reflects President Zelensky’s need to reinvent himself and reinvent a new strategy for the war, as well as to point to a scapegoat for the failure of the autumn counteroffensive. However, with this decision Zelensky has given the impression of increasingly openly putting his personal interests above those of the state, as Zaluzhni is the only personality who enjoys more popularity (88%) than the president himself (62%) and who could successfully challenge him for the presidency when the elections scheduled for March are finally called. After two years of war, Zelensky’s reputation continues to fade, and it is becoming increasingly clear that his unwavering positions of returning to the 1991 borders make any progress towards a peace agreement unfeasible. For weeks now, rumours have been swirling about the possibility of a “third Maidan” after those of 2004 and 2014, this in an American election year, where both the White House and the Pentagon would welcome the figure of Zaluzhni as a possible ally for a de-escalation strategy.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Two years after the start of the war, the world stage is reeling from the impacts of conflicts such as those in Ukraine, Gaza, the Red Sea and the Sahel, which are interconnected and will determine the future of the new world order. Ultimately, a Russian victory would not only mean the end of Ukraine as a sovereign, democratic and independent state, but would also deal a severe blow to the international order, as changing borders by force could serve as a model for authoritarian leaders around the world.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
\n\n\n\nPhotography: Alisdare Hickson\/Creative Commons<\/sub><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"The war in Ukraine has just entered its third year. In the early hours of 24 February 2022, the impossible became reality and Russian troops entered Ukrainian territory. Everything pointed to a rapid Russian advance and the fall of Kiev in a few weeks, but the unsuspected Ukrainian resilience, Russian tactical mistakes in the first weeks of the war and the rapid and massive support from the West have led to a long-lasting conflict, with advances and setbacks on both sides. Two years ago, Vladimir Putin made a bold gamble, which has proved wrong over time, that Ukraine would capitulate\u2026<\/p>\n","protected":false},"featured_media":69237,"template":"","category_newspaper":[584],"segment":[],"subject":[],"class_list":["post-69469","newspaper","type-newspaper","status-publish","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category_newspaper-584"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"\n
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