\u201cA cycle of half a century in our history is closing, a new one is opening now, with new challenges, new requirements, new ambitions, but always with the same values: Democracy, Freedom and Equality\u201d. These are the words of the President of the Portuguese Republic in his institutional message the day before the elections that gave a very tight victory to the coalition of right-wing parties, Democratic Alliance (AD).<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Considering the inherent deterioration to eight years of government of the Socialist Party (PS), with a suddenly interrupted term of office by interferences of the judiciary, a pandemic and an international context marked by two wars, the expected victory of the right-wing parties is clearly insufficient. In the absence of the assignment of the four seats that correspond to the Portuguese living abroad, AD has obtained 79 seats, the PS 77, the right-wing populist Chega 48, Iniciativa Liberal (IL) 8, the Bloco de Esquerda (BE) 5, Livre (progressive) 4, the coalition CDU (communists and environmentalists) 4 and the Animalist Party 1.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Portugal has therefore turned clearly to the right, as although the traditional right obtained results similar to those of 2019 and 2022, the radical and populist right exceeded one million votes, while the left has obtained one of its worst results ever. The populist party Chega has quadrupled its parliamentary representation (from 12 to 48 deputies), has tripled the number of votes, has obtained deputies in all the constituencies of the country except in Bragan\u00e7a and has been the most voted force in the Algarve, one of the traditional fiefdoms of the PCP. It is worth remembering that when Chega ran for election for the first time in the legislative elections only five years ago, it obtained 67,826 votes and one deputy. A spectacular increase that, moreover, occurs in elections where abstention has been the lowest in the last twenty years. A first analysis of the results indicates that Chega has been one of the main recipients of the 486,700 votes that the PS has lost, and of the 34,080 that the PCP has lost. It is enough to add the increase in participation to reach the 723,191 more votes that Chega has obtained compared to the 2022 elections. We must also highlight the role of the left, and in particular the PS, in the meteoric rise of Chega given that since 2019 it has been promoting Andr\u00e9 Ventura, turning him into the main protagonist of the Portuguese politics, with the purpose of eroding the PSD, something that was obtained in the 2022 elections, when the PS got an unexpected absolute majority.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
The PS has run for election with a leader just elected at the end of last year and representative of the most left wing of the party, which has always been a minority. Pedro Nun Santos wanted to represent the change and the alternative to Ant\u00f3nio Costa at the same time, but he has not finally been able to capitalize on the positive balance of his predecessor in economic growth and reduction of government deficit. Meanwhile, the PSD leader Luis Montenegro has returned to give the victory to his party nine years after. Nevertheless, his victory is so pyrrhic that, arithmetically, it could still turn into a defeat, when the proceeding of the votes coming from emigration\u2019s constituencies will take place. However, he successfully managed to prevent a left majority in the Parliament, so a new geringon\u00e7a<\/em> like the one of 2015 will be impossible. He should also be given credit for drawing red lines with Chega, stating that he will not negotiate with Andr\u00e9 Ventura\u2019s party despite the pressures received from his own party.<\/p>\n\n\n\n Nevertheless, if he is finally appointed to form a government, the acid test will come in the month of November when he will have to present and have a new budget approved, which all left-wing parties now oppose, which would leave him in the hands of Chega. Finally, the Republic\u2019s president Marcelo Rebelo de Sousa will also play an important role in the final part of his second term that finishes in 2026, since he will have to manage precarious balances and exert its influence with caution.<\/p>\n\n\n\n The cycle now closing is the one with a Parliament dominated by two big blocks and two big parties, given that it is no longer possible to exclude from parliamentary arithmetic those who precisely do not hide that they want to weaken the basic principles of democracy. To cope with it, it is not enough with criticising the appeal that they can have in segments of the population affected by the repeated crisis, the simple answers and demagogic ideas suggested by the populists. It is not enough with confirming their ability to capitalise issues, real or imaginary, from which \u201cnobody else wants to talk\u201d or the power of the dichotomy \u201cus versus them\u201d.<\/p>\n\n\n\n The democratic forces need to understand that the populist\u2019s victory is their own defeat. Only this way they will be able to reinvent themselves in order not to see the even bigger growth of those who advocate for conflict instead of commitment, those who do not hesitate to use lies, manipulation and deceit. Democrats, in Portugal and everywhere have to analyse the reasons why so many people voted for Chega, which means, for example, improving the control over administrations, undertaking a determined fight against corruption and illicit enrichment, starting a serious reform of judicial system, dedicating more resources to health and education and, maybe also, moderating the discourse on gender issues, that sometimes seems to go beyond of what a large part of the population can assume.<\/p>\n\n\n\n Maybe the main lesson of these elections is that it is necessary to open a new cycle in which both the PSD and the PS could better translate the responsibilities they have had as majority parties in the last 50 years and stop using Chega as a weapon because that’s how it grew up. Portugal needs important and lasting solutions. It needs an unprecedented investment programme in health, education and housing. It needs the ability of union and convergence in a moment when the society is disintegrating. After seeing the new composition of the Republic\u2019s Assembly, this will not be an easy task. Without the possibility of an alliance between AD and Chega, and without an alternative majority, the difficult, complicated, complex solution, and currently ruled out by the two main parties, could be a coalition of the so-called \u201ccentral bloc\u201d between the PSD and the PS, as happened in 1983 and which gave way to a short two-year term.<\/p>\n\n\n\n The spectacular increase in the votes of Chega is revealing of the power of the new trends that replace the role of parties with that of leaders. It is not a new phenomenon, but now it is at the expense of the systematic dissolution of party structures, and that is applicable to all liberal democracies confronted with the impulse of populism. Without political parties, there is no democracy. Some think that it is possible to organise the political life of the communities with other institutions and by other means. Theoretically, democracy could be better without parties, with a more direct involvement of the citizens and better controls of the public administration, legislative, executive and judicial power. However, it could also be much worse, with societies guided by inorganic and ephemeral movements, without historical identity or program, without doctrine or reference values.<\/p>\n\n\n\n In short, strong leaders and weak parties are a bad recipe for democracy. They are parties that maintain bad relations with institutions, professional associations, social organizations, unions, companies, the educational and academic world, the intermediary bodies that precisely strengthen democracy and guarantee freedoms. We should therefore keep in mind the Portuguese elections in a year in which democracy around the world is risking its future in the large number of electoral processes planned for 2024.<\/p>\n\n\n\n Photography: Escadinhas das Olarias, Lisbon. Marc Lepr\u00eatre.<\/sub><\/p>\n\n\n\n Eduard Mayol, trainee student at the CETC, has participated in this issue of Idees d’actualitat<\/em>.<\/sub><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":" \u201cA cycle of half a century in our history is closing, a new one is opening now, with new challenges, new requirements, new ambitions, but always with the same values: Democracy, Freedom and Equality\u201d. These are the words of the President of the Portuguese Republic in his institutional message the day before the elections that gave a very tight victory to the coalition of right-wing parties, Democratic Alliance (AD). Considering the inherent deterioration to eight years of government of the Socialist Party (PS), with a suddenly interrupted term of office by interferences of the judiciary, a pandemic and an international\u2026<\/p>\n","protected":false},"featured_media":69856,"template":"","category_newspaper":[584],"segment":[],"subject":[],"class_list":["post-69887","newspaper","type-newspaper","status-publish","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category_newspaper-584"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"\n
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