{"id":75471,"date":"2024-06-13T01:29:50","date_gmt":"2024-06-12T23:29:50","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/revistaidees.cat\/analisis\/diari-de-les-idees\/idees-dactualitat-eleccions-europees-balanc-i-perspectives\/"},"modified":"2024-06-14T10:37:39","modified_gmt":"2024-06-14T08:37:39","slug":"idees-dactualitat-eleccions-europees-balanc-i-perspectives","status":"publish","type":"newspaper","link":"https:\/\/revistaidees.cat\/en\/analisis\/diari-de-les-idees\/idees-dactualitat-eleccions-europees-balanc-i-perspectives\/","title":{"rendered":"Idees d’actualitat – European elections: assessment and prospects"},"content":{"rendered":"\n

Sunday’s European elections saw a big wave of radical right-wingers, but not the tsunami that many polls predicted. Overall, they won some 140 seats in the new Parliament, putting them on a par with the second largest group in the chamber, the S&D Social Democrats, although it should be noted that these right-wingers do not form a homogeneous bloc, but are split into three groups: European Conservatives and Reformists (ECR), Identity and Democracy (ID) and the nonaligned. In fact, if the radical right were to form a single group, it would be the second largest force in the Parliament after the European People’s Party (EPP). Although rivalries and disagreements within their ranks make this scenario unlikely, their push will undoubtedly exert strong rightward pressure on EU policies. It is also notable that radical right parties have managed to become the leading force in France, Italy, Austria, Hungary and Belgium. They also have achieved important results in Germany, where the AfD climbs to second place behind the CDU and ahead of the SPD, and in the Netherlands where it is the second force behind the alliance of Social Democrats and Greens.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The EPP won a clear victory and strengthened its majority in the chamber. The centre-right bloc won 184 seats (+8) while the social democratic S&D group remained stable and the liberal Renew group was the big loser of the night with a loss of more than twenty seats, largely due to the debacle of President Emmanuel Macron’s party, which has led him to call early legislative elections for 30 June. Also notable is the decline of the Greens, who have lost 19 seats and seem to have run out of steam after the climate activism of five years ago.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

These are the numbers, now it is time for politics and the game of alliances. In practice, much will depend on how the EPP will exercise its reinforced majority: will it assume a hinge role between the radical right and its usual centre and centre-left partners, or will it remain faithful to the grand coalition that has been in place since 2019? Because the novelty of this new political map of the European Parliament is precisely that, for the first time, the entire right as a whole has become a majority, thus opening the door to alternative majorities.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Obviously, there are for now more questions than answers in this new configuration. To begin with, we have to wait how the growing influence of the radical right will manifest itself. Although the sum of seats that the two groups have won is not enough to push through their initiatives, it may allow them to act as a blocking minority, forcing the majority parties to negotiate, measure by measure. In other words, its political impact will be real, albeit indirect, as it will force the major traditional political groups to make some adjustments. This will probably lean them further to the right on issues such as immigration and asylum policies, decisions relating to the fight against climate change, the ratification of the European Union’s trade agreements with the outside world and the approval of EU budgets, over which the European Parliament has co-decision powers.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The new balance of power in the European Parliament will also influence the choice of who will hold the three top jobs in the European institutions: the presidency of the Commission, the presidency of the European Council and the High Representative for Foreign and Security Policy. Ursula von der Leyen needs 361 votes to secure her re-election and has already declared that she will seek a deal with the Social Democrats and Liberals, who supported her during her first term in office. In total, these three groups have 407 seats, but most observers believe that 10 per cent of MPs from each group could vote against her candidacy or abstain. That would mean having to seek other options such as support from the Greens, which would alienate some of his own EPP fellows who oppose key climate measures in the European Green Deal<\/a>. If she instead opted to seek the support of the ECR group, led by Giorgia Meloni, von der Leyen would risk losing the support of social democrats and liberals.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Until now, the EPP has been one of the pillars of EU construction, along with the social democrats and liberals, and its progressive rightward tilt may have serious consequences for the future of Europe. Indeed, even if it tries to portray itself as reasonable and even moderate, the extreme right, whether pro NATO or Russophile, represents the greatest current threat to democratic values and to the very long-term survival of the model of liberal and pluralist democracy as we know it.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

However, regardless of how the new political map emerging from the elections is structured, European politics will have to deal with several issues that EU institutions will have to face during the next legislature. First, the European Council’s decision in December 2023 to open accession negotiations with Ukraine, Moldova and Georgia opens a new stage in the EU’s enlargement policy, with the aim of creating a zone of stability and security on its eastern flank. In order to implement enlargement, aspects such as ground rules, institutions and decision-making processes, cohesion and agricultural policies, and defence policy will need to be reviewed.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

In the economic sphere, the EU’s competitiveness and its ability to strengthen domestic sources of growth have become key issues in a context of trade fragmentation, massive subsidies granted by the US and China to their companies, and increasing geopolitical and technological competition. In this regard, Mario Draghi<\/a>‘s report on European competitiveness and Enrico Letta<\/a>‘s report on the single market highlight the need to strengthen key industries such as digital networks and services, energy and transport, so that European companies can operate on a pan-European scale and become more competitive globally.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Another crucial question will be the strategic positioning of the Union in a world where it appears less determined and united in asserting its interests and values compared to other geopolitical powers such as the United States. China or Russia. Likewise, if Trump wins the US presidential election, the Union could find itself isolated, for example, in providing support in Ukraine, organising its own security and promoting its values on the world stage. Therefore, in the next legislature, issues of defence, foreign policy and the Union’s strategic autonomy will be of particular relevance.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The EU thus faces a policy agenda largely determined by external challenges, which could also affect other priorities already present in the previous legislature, such as the green and digital transition. The European Council’s draft strategic agenda 2024-29<\/a> is moving in the same direction. As the green transition faces a political backlash from the radical right, it could increasingly be approached from the angle of competitiveness and strategic autonomy. Competition with the United States and China in the field of green technologies and the risks linked to external dependence on fossil fuels mean that the EU needs to continue its greening efforts. However, this issue is likely to be approached from now on from an economic rather than an environmental perspective.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

In short, in an increasingly complex global context, marked by two wars whose end is not in sight, the European Union is facing enormous challenges: from possible enlargement and the necessary reform of its functioning to progress towards the definitive political union, the fight against climate change, energy autonomy and the maintenance of the social state. The EU has yet to clarify what it wants to be and what role it wants to play in the world. Only a Europe that is more cohesive, democratic and aware of its role in the world can be the solution to the challenges of the present and the future.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\n\n\n\n

Photography: CC-BY-4.0: \u00a9 European Union 2024 – Source: European Parliament.<\/sub><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Anna Masegosa, Eul\u00e0lia Vi\u00f1olas and Maria Beltr\u00e1n, trainees at the CETC, have participated to this issue of Idees d\u2019actualitat<\/em>.<\/sub><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Sunday’s European elections saw a big wave of radical right-wingers, but not the tsunami that many polls predicted. Overall, they won some 140 seats in the new Parliament, putting them on a par with the second largest group in the chamber, the S&D Social Democrats, although it should be noted that these right-wingers do not form a homogeneous bloc, but are split into three groups: European Conservatives and Reformists (ECR), Identity and Democracy (ID) and the nonaligned. In fact, if the radical right were to form a single group, it would be the second largest force in the Parliament after\u2026<\/p>\n","protected":false},"featured_media":74300,"template":"","category_newspaper":[584],"segment":[],"subject":[],"class_list":["post-75471","newspaper","type-newspaper","status-publish","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category_newspaper-584"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"\nIdees d'actualitat - European elections: assessment and prospects – IDEES<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/revistaidees.cat\/en\/analisis\/diari-de-les-idees\/idees-dactualitat-eleccions-europees-balanc-i-perspectives\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Idees d'actualitat - European elections: assessment and prospects – IDEES\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"Sunday’s European elections saw a big wave of radical right-wingers, but not the tsunami that many polls predicted. 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