After weeks of intense pressure, the President of the United States and candidate for re-election, Joe Biden, announced that he was withdrawing from the electoral race and endorsing his vice-president Kamala Harris as the new candidate. This decision, no less shocking for being expected, was the result of an incessant trickle of opinions from heavyweights in the Democratic Party such as Barack Obama and Nancy Pelosi who advised him to withdraw. The fact that major donors had withdrawn their support also played a decisive role, a clear sign that the business and financial world was no longer betting on his victory. Indeed, the feeling was that with a clearly diminished Biden the Democrats were heading for certain defeat and the US was doomed to see the triumphant return of a Donald Trump immune to prosecution and endowed with a messianic aura after the failed attack.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
With the withdrawal of Joe Biden and the possible candidacy of Kamala Harris, different scenarios are opening up that could redefine the course of the electoral campaign and ultimately determine the outcome of the elections. First, the change of candidate could mean a revival of expectations for the Democrats, as the sense of relief has meant that more than 5 million dollars were raised in little more than an hour after the announcement of Biden’s withdrawal. Indeed, Kamala Harris is perceived by many Democratic voters as a competent and serious personality, and she has a big advantage over the current president: the age issue, which hurt Biden so much, can now be turned against Trump who, at 78, has become the oldest candidate to run for president in US history. Kamala Harris will also benefit from a new boost when she chooses her vice-presidential candidate, who is likely to be one of the most popular Democratic governors: Jay Pritzker of Illinois, Joshua Shapiro of Pennsylvania, Gretchen Whitmer of Michigan or Andy Beshear of Kentucky.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
A second scenario is that after this burst of enthusiasm there is likely to be an undertow effect as doubts begin to emerge about the candidate’s suitability given that her work as vice-president has been rather inconspicuous and rather mediocre. Also working against her is the fact that so far her image is not very positive among independent and swing state voters. Moreover, Kamala Harris will have to start positioning herself on important and divisive issues, and in some cases, this will inevitably lead to a loss of support, as in the case of the Israeli-Palestinian conflict. Harris is also a typical product of institutional politics who has shifted her position as her party has changed course (from initially supporting the death penalty to opposing it) and has often been labelled as an opportunist with too much ambition and too little conviction, an image she is struggling to shake off.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Finally, we will have to be attentive to the response of the Republicans to this change of script, which from the outset does not serve the interests of Donald Trump, who since the debate at the end of June has been hammering away at his opponent’s senility and leading in the polls, both nationally and in most key states. His entire campaign strategy will therefore have to be reorganised. A first step will probably be to associate Kamala Harris with the figure of Joe Biden, insisting on his co-responsibility in the policies that have worked the worst, such as immigration. It is also quite likely that she will be accused of having contributed to hiding the president’s real state of health.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Thus, the risks involved in Kamala Harris’ possible candidacy are obvious, as Biden’s withdrawal is unprecedented and we ignore how it will affect voters and the party itself. One of the risks is that Harris will not prove to be the right candidate and that it will be impossible for her to win the election, especially given her poor communication skills, already showed at rallies during her campaign for the 2020 Democratic primaries. However, it is also possible that her candidacy could be the revival the Democrats needed. The party had been plunged into pessimism after Biden’s performance in the debate against Trump and the subsequent attack on the former president. Given that both Biden and Trump are equally unpopular with the American public, Harris could represent a huge opportunity for the Democrats. Another argument that could favour the current vice-president is the issue of reproductive rights, which could become a mobilising factor as it was in the 2022 mid-term elections.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Joe Biden’s resignation may thus mean the revival of the Democratic Party’s aspirations in a context marked by an unprecedented level of political violence. The attack on the former president on 13 July marked the first time in more than 40 years that someone had shot at a US president and adds to a moment of high political tension in the United States. The photo of Donald Trump with his fist raised and the American flag in the background has not only gone around the world, but is already being used by the Republican election machine. In addition to an iconic photograph that fixes a very special moment forever, it has served to turn the Republican convention into an event marked by religious ideas very well constructed around biblical parallels and the image of Trump as a messiah who has been saved by the will of God, a narrative that is spreading rapidly among evangelical churches in the US.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
The United States faces the electoral process immersed in a major democratic crisis insofar as the four main factors that provoke this type of crisis converge: political polarisation, divergences over who belongs in the political community, economic inequality and excessive influence of the executive branch. Factors that eight years ago helped fuel Trump’s rise and partly explain episodes such as the storming of the Capitol. In this sense, the failed attack seems to have further exacerbated the discourse of the former president, who does not hesitate to use dehumanising language to talk about his political antagonists and to radicalise his followers. We have seen representatives of the Republican Party spread the idea that it was President Biden’s rhetoric that provoked the attack, when he claimed that his victory would be a blow to American democracy. There is concern that if Trump and his team continue to spread this message to a radicalised and armed population, it could increase the risk of serious clashes between supporters of both parties.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
This election will determine which model of society the American people choose. Trump’s programme represents a genuine counter-reform of the policies pursued by Biden during his term in office. Not only does he propose the deportation of tens of thousands of immigrants, but also the introduction of protectionist tariffs for American industry, a review of policies initiated to combat climate change, a reduction in support for Ukraine and a rapprochement with China. Voters will have to decide whether they prefer the US to continue to defend Ukraine as vigorously against Russian aggression, to continue to reduce economic inequality, to continue to invest heavily in improving infrastructure, the federal government to continue to protect women’s reproductive rights and address the climate crisis by stimulating the economic transition to renewable energy, to increase investment in semiconductor manufacturing, to increase improvements in immigration laws, and to rebalance the tax cuts on the wealthiest passed by Trump in 2017. <\/p>\n\n\n\n
In the end, the November elections will be a crucial moment for the survival of the values that have long defined the United States: a commitment to freedom, respect for the rule of law, and a belief that pluralism is a fundamental pillar of the strength of society and the country..<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Photography: CC-BY-SA-2.0\u00a0\u2013 Lorie Shaull, Biden Harris signs<\/sub><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":" After weeks of intense pressure, the President of the United States and candidate for re-election, Joe Biden, announced that he was withdrawing from the electoral race and endorsing his vice-president Kamala Harris as the new candidate. This decision, no less shocking for being expected, was the result of an incessant trickle of opinions from heavyweights in the Democratic Party such as Barack Obama and Nancy Pelosi who advised him to withdraw. The fact that major donors had withdrawn their support also played a decisive role, a clear sign that the business and financial world was no longer betting on his\u2026<\/p>\n","protected":false},"featured_media":76492,"template":"","category_newspaper":[584],"segment":[],"subject":[],"class_list":["post-76516","newspaper","type-newspaper","status-publish","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category_newspaper-584"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"\n