{"id":76884,"date":"2024-09-26T07:24:12","date_gmt":"2024-09-26T05:24:12","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/revistaidees.cat\/analisis\/diari-de-les-idees\/idees-dactualitat-escalada-de-tensions-al-proxim-orient-quines-estrategies\/"},"modified":"2024-09-26T08:17:59","modified_gmt":"2024-09-26T06:17:59","slug":"idees-dactualitat-escalada-de-tensions-al-proxim-orient-quines-estrategies","status":"publish","type":"newspaper","link":"https:\/\/revistaidees.cat\/en\/analisis\/diari-de-les-idees\/idees-dactualitat-escalada-de-tensions-al-proxim-orient-quines-estrategies\/","title":{"rendered":"Idees d’actualitat – Escalating tensions in the Middle East: what strategies?"},"content":{"rendered":"\n

The unconventional attacks carried out on 17-18 September in Lebanon with the remotely controlled explosion of the rudimentary electronic devices (pagers and walkie-talkies) that Hezbollah used to protect itself from Israeli penetration of its telephone networks, followed by the subsequent assassination of two leaders of its elite units and the massive bombing of targets in southern Lebanon and Beirut, have humiliated, disorganised and disoriented the Shi’ite militia. These attacks reveal the Netanyahu government’s intention to regain its deterrence capability after the humiliation of the intrusion into its electronic security barrier that led to the Hamas killings almost a year ago.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Both the indiscriminate military operations carried out in Gaza by the Israel Defence Forces and these more targeted attacks raise a number of questions. First, a matter of principle. The bombings that have killed more than 40,000 Palestinian civilians in Gaza, justified solely by the presence of Hamas militiamen among them, and now the explosions in Lebanon that have also wounded many innocent civilians, radically question the framework hitherto applied to the conduct of war by states that define themselves as democratic. This framework is none other than the distinction between civilians and the military. Thus, those responsible for the operation had no guarantee that the explosions of the electronic devices would actually hit their owners, nor that they would not affect people nearby who had no connection to them.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The second aspect refers to the tactical choices of the Israeli prime minister, who days earlier appeared to be orchestrating the dismissal of his defence minister, an avowed supporter of a ceasefire in Gaza that would allow the return of the last Israeli hostages still alive. A ceasefire that the far right, on which Israel’s ruling coalition depends, is viscerally opposed. By rejecting a de-escalation in Gaza that the US is trying in vain to achieve, and which would also entail a reduction of tensions with Hezbollah, Benjamin Netanyahu gives the impression that he is seeking by all means a regionalisation of the conflict. In this context, it is significant that on 16 September, the Israeli government announced that it had approved a new war aim: to enable the return of all Israeli residents displaced by Hezbollah’s rocket fire since October last year. Thus, in recent weeks, key military units have moved from the Southern Command (responsible for Gaza operations) to the Northern Command, in charge of the border area with Lebanon.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Third, given the complexity and risk inherent in such operations, as well as the potential for future intelligence (devices destroyed and agents burned), the obvious question is why now? One reason could be that the operation was about to be exposed. Another is that this attack is the preamble to a more far-reaching military action as the air strikes on southern Lebanon and Beirut seem to indicate. Moreover, while Netanyahu has long been clear about his desire to eradicate the threat from Hezbollah and dismantle the nuclear danger from Iran, he is under increasing pressure from the US to end the Gaza campaign and de-escalate regional tensions.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The increased actions on Lebanese territory thus suggest that Netanyahu is either testing the resolve of a Biden administration in its final months in office to enforce its red lines or trying to provoke Iran or Hezbollah to respond with a far-reaching retaliation that would force the US to support more \u2018defensive\u2019 actions by Israel.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

It should also be noted that changes in polling trends ahead of the US elections in November after Joe Biden’s withdrawal are also influencing Netanyahu. Indeed, there is concern that if Vice President Kamala Harris wins, the Israeli government’s room for manoeuvre and strategic objectives will be more limited. Israel is dependent on the constant flow of US munitions and equipment, as it does not have the capacity to manufacture them in sufficient quantities to fight a protracted conflict or a hypothetical war against Iran and Hezbollah.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Indeed, in the midst of an extremely volatile and dangerous geopolitical situation, the United States has always offered valuable support to the Israeli war effort and has even reinforced its military presence in the region in anticipation of a hypothetical major attack by Iran or its allies. But despite official US statements insisting on Washington’s support for Israel, the question under debate is whether, in the event of a direct confrontation between Tel Aviv and Tehran, the US would commit itself to the side of its historic ally. For US troops to move into action, Iran would need to directly attack US ships or bases in Iraq in order to justify a US military engagement, which would likely automatically curb the risk of escalation towards all-out war.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

It is also striking to note that the US is currently in a purely reactive posture, revealing the absence of a regional strategy. In fact, its strategy, which was based on the Abraham Accords<\/a>, reinforced by the growing prominence of regional actors such as the United Arab Emirates – and its corollary, the growing disinterest in the Palestinian question – has been completely overwhelmed and has proved to be misguided. The new scenario provoked by the attacks of 7 October 2023 has demonstrated that US plans to pacify the region without reaching an effective resolution of the Palestinian question have been in vain and that the reality is that there is no clear and defined US project for the Middle East. Consequently, this lack of a master plan and the conflict in Gaza have also deepened the rift between the US, the West and the rest of the world, eroding confidence in the current rules-based international order, weakening the human rights architecture that should hold leaders accountable for war crimes, and undermining the liberal values that the West promulgates.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Finally, one last point that should be of concern is that an escalation could also not rule out violence spilling over into the eastern Mediterranean, especially in the event of a full-scale conflict with Hezbollah. If that were to happen, shipping, offshore energy platforms and undersea cables in the Mediterranean would be at risk. This means that, beyond each other’s war strategies, the region’s potential as a hub for future energy production, including renewables and new electricity interconnections, and commercial and digital infrastructures linking Europe, Asia and Africa, depends on regional stability and the management of geopolitical risks being kept at a manageable level..<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\n\n\n\n

Photography: Israel air strike in South Lebanon. <\/span>Creative Commons Attribution-Share Alike 2.0 Generic license.<\/sub><\/p>\n\n\n\n

<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

The unconventional attacks carried out on 17-18 September in Lebanon with the remotely controlled explosion of the rudimentary electronic devices (pagers and walkie-talkies) that Hezbollah used to protect itself from Israeli penetration of its telephone networks, followed by the subsequent assassination of two leaders of its elite units and the massive bombing of targets in southern Lebanon and Beirut, have humiliated, disorganised and disoriented the Shi’ite militia. These attacks reveal the Netanyahu government’s intention to regain its deterrence capability after the humiliation of the intrusion into its electronic security barrier that led to the Hamas killings almost a year ago.\u2026<\/p>\n","protected":false},"featured_media":76867,"template":"","category_newspaper":[584],"segment":[],"subject":[],"class_list":["post-76884","newspaper","type-newspaper","status-publish","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category_newspaper-584"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"\nIdees d'actualitat - Escalating tensions in the Middle East: what strategies? – IDEES<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/revistaidees.cat\/en\/analisis\/diari-de-les-idees\/idees-dactualitat-escalada-de-tensions-al-proxim-orient-quines-estrategies\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Idees d'actualitat - Escalating tensions in the Middle East: what strategies? – IDEES\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"The unconventional attacks carried out on 17-18 September in Lebanon with the remotely controlled explosion of the rudimentary electronic devices (pagers and walkie-talkies) that Hezbollah used to protect itself from Israeli penetration of its telephone networks, followed by the subsequent assassination of two leaders of its elite units and the massive bombing of targets in southern Lebanon and Beirut, have humiliated, disorganised and disoriented the Shi’ite militia. 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