{"id":78093,"date":"2024-12-19T08:29:34","date_gmt":"2024-12-19T06:29:34","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/revistaidees.cat\/analisis\/diari-de-les-idees\/idees-dactualitat-el-mon-el-2025-perspectives-i-reptes\/"},"modified":"2024-12-20T10:00:24","modified_gmt":"2024-12-20T08:00:24","slug":"idees-dactualitat-el-mon-el-2025-perspectives-i-reptes","status":"publish","type":"newspaper","link":"https:\/\/revistaidees.cat\/en\/analisis\/diari-de-les-idees\/idees-dactualitat-el-mon-el-2025-perspectives-i-reptes\/","title":{"rendered":"Idees d’actualitat – The world in 2025: prospects and challenges"},"content":{"rendered":"\n

In 2025, international politics will focus as much on the continuation of the war in Ukraine and the upheavals in the Middle East as on Donald Trump’s return to the White House and his disruptive agenda, which may complicate the transatlantic relationship and sharpen the confrontation with China. Instability will continue to mark the Middle East in the coming year, and even if the intensity of the various regional conflicts lowers, the destruction and displacement of populations will continue to have a serious impact. In the European Union, a new term of office is beginning that will face the major challenge of adapting to the new technological, energy and geopolitical reality, in a context of erosion of the pro-European coalition and changes of government in Germany and France. The world economy will be affected by the introduction in the USA of tariffs of 10-20% on all imported goods, with taxes of up to 60% on Chinese imports, which will affect growth and cause more inflation. As for climate change, it is possible that global greenhouse gas emissions will peak, a sine qua non condition for keeping the global temperature increase within the limits specified by the Paris Agreement<\/a>. Finally, in the field of Artificial Intelligence development, 2025 is shaping up to be a watershed year as the race to make AI more efficient and useful will come to a head.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

China<\/strong> will face an intricate web of internal and external challenges within the framework of economic and social tensions that threaten the social order, while the party-state will try to maintain control amid complex governance problems and growing public discontent. Still, there are promising signs of fiscal reform, improvements in the social security system and a push for cutting-edge technologies. Internationally, Donald Trump’s return to the White House will exacerbate strategic competition with the United States, with the threat of imposing 60% tariffs on Chinese imports, and phasing out imports of essential goods such as electronics, steel and pharmaceuticals from China. The coming year will test Beijing’s resilience and ability to adapt to a new and increasingly hostile geopolitical environment at a time when it must deal with extremely complex domestic challenges.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

In the Middle East<\/strong>, after a turbulent year marked by the war in Gaza, Israeli attacks against Hezbollah in Lebanon and the fall of Bashar al-Assad’s regime, a partial de-escalation of conflicts is expected as Israel and an Iran weakened by the defeats of its allies in the region lower expectations of direct confrontation. Iran is likely to face increased pressures from several sides: internal tensions caused by public discontent, threats of surgical strikes by Israel against its facilities, and the US’s implementation of a policy of maximum pressure. We will also have to pay attention to the situation in Syria: it is too early to know the impact of the fall of the regime on the ongoing conflicts between Israel and Iran, Turkey and the Syrian Kurds, Iran and the Arab countries. The opposition is not an organised coalition, but a conglomerate of militias and groups with individual agendas. Despite the uncertainty of the moment, it seems that coexistence with the current institutions may avoid a power vacuum like the one that followed the fall of Saddam Hussein in Iraq and Gaddafi in Libya.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

With regard to the war in Ukraine<\/strong>, reduced military and economic assistance, Russia’s resilience and disunity among Western leaders mean that the situation is likely to worsen for Ukraine while the conviction is spreading that Ukraine cannot win this war. That, along with the re-election of Donald Trump, will drive the search for a \u2018peace-for-territory\u2019 compromise deal. However, even if Russia succeeds in partially achieving its goals, it will still be under enormous pressure, especially economic and financial, and economists believe that Vladimir Putin has only 12-18 months to resolve the conflict before he has to make painful economic decisions for Russian citizens.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

At the European level, the new Commission is expected to publish early next year a White Paper on defence<\/a> with the aim of charting a more coordinated and integrated course for European security. While NATO is cautious about EU efforts in this regard, the two institutions should work together to strengthen Europe’s defence industrial base, especially given the new US administration’s uncertain commitment to transatlantic security. The European Commission will also need to develop a range of economic, security and industrial policy tools aimed at protecting EU prosperity, reducing dependencies on third countries and stimulating economic growth. Economic security will thus be one of the priorities of Ursula von der Leyen’s second term, and the EU is likely to strengthen strategies to protect itself from the impacts of the expected rise in trade tensions between the US and China.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Thus, the grand promises of a strong social Europe have been sidelined on the political agenda as the Commission has shifted its focus to security and defence issues. Significantly, when Ursula von der Leyen presented the members of the new Commission, the social agenda and employment were conspicuous by their absence. From von der Leyen’s policy guidelines and her mission letters, we can foresee what the two main trends of her second mandate will be: the subordination of the social to the economic and the management of the status quo. Both of which are evident in two flagship social policy projects: the European<\/a> Skills Agenda which aims to strengthen human capital in the service of economic objectives and the subsequent implementation of the European Pillar of Social Rights<\/a> where economically driven investment in skills will continue to dominate.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Even if the new year brings no major new conflicts, the geopolitical tensions inherited from 2024 will weigh on the global economy<\/strong>: global GDP is projected to grow by only 2.5% as European economies strengthen, while emerging markets stagnate due to trade barriers, climate change and technological hurdles. Inflation and interest rates are expected to fall, but high public debt and defence budgets will limit governments’ spending capacity. Donald Trump’s policy decisions at the start of his second term are also expected to dominate the outlook for the global economy over the next 12 months. If he follows through on his threat to impose tariffs of 10-20 per cent on imports from other countries – and 60 per cent on Chinese imports – the rest of the world will have to decide whether to respond with tariffs of its own, seek to negotiate a deal with the United States or, more likely, adopt a mix of the two strategies.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The year 2025 will be fraught with major challenges for climate action<\/strong>, as the transition to a net-zero global economy cannot be taken for granted and the consensus on a global zero-emissions economy cannot be taken for granted. the Paris<\/a> Agreement and its primary goal of keeping global warming below 2\u00b0C is weakening. Moreover, if the US withdraws from the agreement, this could mean a reduction in renewable energy subsidies and the adoption of a more fossil fuel-friendly policy in the world’s largest economy. The Trump administration’s scepticism towards climate change in particular and multilateralism in general is likely to hinder an effective global response. On the occasion of the COP30<\/a> in November, it is hoped that more pressure can be put on the private sector to accelerate its decarbonisation plans and that, given Brazil’s unique biodiversity, nature will be a central theme and there will be a strong push for a bioeconomy that supports transitions in sectors such as fuel and food.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

On Artificial Intelligence<\/strong>, global governance of the sector will be one of the issues to watch closely, as countries seek to balance the urgent need for increased international cooperation on the subject while dealing with growing geopolitical tensions. In February, on the occasion of the Artificial Intelligence Action Summit<\/a>, governments, tech companies, scientists and experts will gather in Paris to discuss how to build public interest-driven AI. Beyond such events, other efforts to strengthen AI governance are expected to accelerate. Over the course of 2025, the implementation of the Global<\/a> Digital Compact of the UN’s new rules could give emerging powers an opportunity to rewrite the rules and gain more leverage. Moreoever, in August, new rules on general-purpose established by the European Union Artificial Intelligence Act<\/a> will come into force, which could also contribute to advances with a view to establishing a global code of conduct with mandatory compliance by companies.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Finally, an important milestone in the field of global health<\/strong> will be the signing of the Global<\/a> Agreement on Pandemics, which would thus become the first global pact specifically focused on international cooperation to combat episodes of global health crises. The agreement aims to improve prevention, preparedness and response to future pandemics in order to ensure sustained and long-term political commitment, and to promote an approach that incorporates all levels of government and society, and integrates health issues into all relevant policy areas. Another key moment will be the review of the World Trade Organisation’s legal mechanism, which currently allows low-income countries to circumvent intellectual property rights on public health grounds, which could have a negative impact on global equity in access to medicines.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\n\n\n\n

Photography: word cloud by David Serrano.<\/sub><\/p>\n\n\n\n

David Jim\u00e9nez, trainee at the CETC, has participated to this issue of Idees d’actualitat<\/em>.<\/sub><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

In 2025, international politics will focus as much on the continuation of the war in Ukraine and the upheavals in the Middle East as on Donald Trump’s return to the White House and his disruptive agenda, which may complicate the transatlantic relationship and sharpen the confrontation with China. Instability will continue to mark the Middle East in the coming year, and even if the intensity of the various regional conflicts lowers, the destruction and displacement of populations will continue to have a serious impact. 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