{"id":80449,"date":"2025-03-13T08:26:30","date_gmt":"2025-03-13T06:26:30","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/revistaidees.cat\/analisis\/diari-de-les-idees\/idees-dactualitat-canvi-de-paradigma-en-la-seguretat-europea\/"},"modified":"2025-03-13T09:38:08","modified_gmt":"2025-03-13T07:38:08","slug":"idees-dactualitat-canvi-de-paradigma-en-la-seguretat-europea","status":"publish","type":"newspaper","link":"https:\/\/revistaidees.cat\/en\/analisis\/diari-de-les-idees\/idees-dactualitat-canvi-de-paradigma-en-la-seguretat-europea\/","title":{"rendered":"Idees d&#8217;actualitat &#8211; Paradigm shift in European security"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The return of the great imperial power mentality, a disregard for alliances and a bitter culture war characterise the new relationship between Europe and the United States as witnessed at the <a href=\"https:\/\/securityconference.org\/en\/msc-2025\/\">Munich Security Conference<\/a>. Although we are still at the beginning of this period of change, the direction seems clear: the United States is retreating from its role as political and military leader. At the same time, Washington has entered negotiations with Russia, sidelining Ukraine, and the European Union. Putting its former allies before the <em>fait accompli<\/em>, Washington is demanding that Europeans contribute more to defence and announcing a shift of its own foreign policy towards the Asia-Pacific.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Donald Trump&#8217;s foreign policy at the beginning of his second term is driving significant geopolitical changes to which European countries will have to respond by adapting their policies to the new situation. The current geopolitical moment is an important turning point, although rather than designing a clearly defined new order, it ushers in an era full of uncertainties, neither fully multipolar nor fully deregulated. Indeed, the great powers still exert significant influence over global affairs, but at the same time there is no longer a structured equilibrium and new supra- or sub-state alliances have yet to materialise.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">So far, Europe&#8217;s response has been articulated around two key axes: strategic autonomy and commitment to multilateralism. However, both concepts need to be more precisely defined and implemented. Strategic autonomy is still a vague concept, currently constrained by economic, political, and military interdependencies. Meanwhile, traditional multilateralism is increasingly obsolete, and requires structural rethinking rather than mere tinkering. While European leaders continue to advocate liberal internationalism, in practice their vision is increasingly pragmatic and transactional, as reflected in the European Commission president&#8217;s recent emphasis on &#8216;hyper-transactionalism&#8217;.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">A possible compass for navigating this new framework of international relations could be the so-called &#8216;geoliberalism&#8217;, a model that mixes geopolitical realism with liberal democratic values, in which European states would selectively defend key aspects of liberalism, such as climate cooperation and the defence of social welfare, while recognising the defence needs created by the new geopolitical reality. Moreover, rather than being merely reactive and caught up in managing short-term crises &#8211; such as the war in Ukraine or regulations in the field of new technologies &#8211; European countries should take a more proactive role in shaping the international order before it is too late for their interests.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Consequently, Europe must now seek to give shape and content to this transatlantic fracture. Within this framework, many believe that this turning point must be turned into tangible defence capabilities, as a commitment to spending 3% or more of GDP on defence would send a strong signal to Russia, the United States and European public opinion that defence has become a priority issue. However, the challenge of financing European defence highlights political and economic dilemmas in that governments will have to find ways to increase military spending without increasing social inequality or undermining economic stability.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">This situation is creating a rift between southern and western European countries, which remain reluctant to increase defence budgets, while northern and eastern European countries such as Poland, Finland and Latvia have already significantly increased them. In this context, one of the main challenges is to mobilise financial resources for defence without sacrificing social welfare, otherwise governments risk alienating the support of citizens, especially if military investments are made at the expense of healthcare, education, or economic stability.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">While the current EU economic governance framework deepens this dilemma by imposing strict fiscal rules that limit budgetary flexibility, sustainable financing solutions need to be found as standard fiscal solutions such as increasing income taxes or VAT would risk dampening economic growth and fuelling social unrest. One alternative would be to boost public investment in key industries, especially in the defence sector. At a time when the EU&#8217;s traditional growth model is being undermined by global trade tensions and China&#8217;s economic dominance, a shift towards industrial development, including defence, could bring both economic and security benefits.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Although left-wing political forces have historically distrusted military industries, the paradigm shift should push them to take the lead in shaping responsible defence policies. Otherwise, the far right could exploit the issue and lead conservative parties to increase military spending without regard for social equity. To counter the traditional conservative approach &#8211; which conceives of defence as a zero-sum game that sacrifices welfare &#8211; progressives should advocate shared European spending, following the precedent set during the COVID-19 crisis: a common European borrowing mechanism to pool financial resources dedicated to collective security. In short, a Hamiltonian moment for European defence.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Washington&#8217;s new strategic priorities of focusing on its rivalry with China, forcing the EU to take responsibility for its defence, and a vision of a world order in which 19th century-style great power rivalry returns are thus putting an end to the order established after the Second World War. The transatlantic relationship that sustained it no longer exists. If Washington&#8217;s new orientation is confirmed, it will mark the most profound transformation of US foreign policy since the 1940s. Ukraine would be the first casualty, but the effects would go far beyond that: they would entail a redrawing of maps, a greater role for Russia in European affairs, and impacts across the globe as the United States reshuffles its great power relationships and what remains of its old alliances.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Finally, the current improvisation of European governments after decades of warning signs: the shift of US foreign policy focus towards Asia under Obama, Trump&#8217;s election in 2016, the chaotic withdrawal from Afghanistan, tensions over NATO funding, the annexation of Crimea eleven years ago and the Russian invasion in 2022. Despite these warnings, Europe settled for the idea that Washington would always guarantee its security, even if this meant making concessions. The idea that the United States has every interest in maintaining a presence in Europe, especially since NATO allows it to exert strategic influence over its allies, especially in the Indo-Pacific, was also mistaken. However, this reasoning is no longer valid considering a US foreign policy that no longer seems to value a strong engagement with Europe. Ultimately, this process of transformation of the relationship between former allies and the resulting geopolitical reconfiguration means that the EU&#8217;s survival now depends on its ability to adapt with leadership, unity, will and determination.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<hr class=\"wp-block-separator has-alpha-channel-opacity is-style-dots\"\/>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><sub>Photography: NATO Foreign Affairs Ministers meeting in Prague 30-31.05.2024. License Creative Commons Attribution 2.0.<\/sub><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><sub>Alba Giol and Maria Fari\u00f1a, trainees at the CETC, have participated in this issue of <em>Idees d&#8217;actualitat<\/em>.<\/sub><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>The return of the great imperial power mentality, a disregard for alliances and a bitter culture war characterise the new relationship between Europe and the United States as witnessed at the Munich Security Conference. Although we are still at the beginning of this period of change, the direction seems clear: the United States is retreating from its role as political and military leader. At the same time, Washington has entered negotiations with Russia, sidelining Ukraine, and the European Union. Putting its former allies before the fait accompli, Washington is demanding that Europeans contribute more to defence and announcing a shift\u2026<\/p>\n","protected":false},"featured_media":80390,"template":"","category_newspaper":[634],"segment":[],"subject":[],"class_list":["post-80449","newspaper","type-newspaper","status-publish","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category_newspaper-634"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v27.8 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>Idees d&#039;actualitat - Paradigm shift in European security &#8211; IDEES<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/revistaidees.cat\/en\/analisis\/diari-de-les-idees\/idees-dactualitat-canvi-de-paradigma-en-la-seguretat-europea\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Idees d&#039;actualitat - Paradigm shift in European security &#8211; IDEES\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"The return of the great imperial power mentality, a disregard for alliances and a bitter culture war characterise the new relationship between Europe and the United States as witnessed at the Munich Security Conference. 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