Fifty years after the Carnation Revolution and the founding of modern democracy in Portugal, last Sunday’s elections represent a structural change in the political system, and not just an accident. The large majority enjoyed by the two main democratic parties (PSD and PS) since the first free elections has disappeared. The founding party of democracy and the party first responsible for Portugal’s unquestionable European option – M\u00e1rio Soares’ PS – has lost its central place, while the nationalist and populist party that came into being less than six years ago has gained the status of opposition leader in Parliament. Chega has won almost a quarter of the vote, has won in districts that were traditional left-wing fiefdoms and may become the second party in the Assembly of the Republic when the votes of Portuguese abroad are counted.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
For its part, the conservative right, grouped under the acronym AD (Democratic Alliance), won the elections by increasing from 80 to 89 seats and winning more seats than the entire left combined, but it has lost the political battle, as it does not have a sufficient majority to govern. It will have to choose between several scenarios: a minority government, permanent parliamentary instability, or an alliance with Chega. It is worth noting that, with the new composition of Parliament, the right-wing forces (AD, Chega and Iniciativa Liberal) could carry out a constitutional reform without the need for consensus with the left, although Lu\u00eds Montenegro has ruled this out for the time being. In Portugal, unlike in Spain, alterations to the founding text of democracy are commonplace and require a two-thirds majority.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
The left has suffered its biggest defeat since 1974, especially the Socialist Party, which in only three years has gone from winning with an unexpected absolute majority to losing 900,000 votes. Moreover, the PS only won in one district and in many constituencies the first party was AD and the second Chega. Portugal has drastically consolidated the shift to the right initiated in March 2024 and voters have condemned the left, fragmented among six formations, to have little more than 30.4% of the seats. The magnitude of the defeat is not only in numbers – the left has lost half a million votes in a year while the three parties on the right have improved their results – but also in geography. The map of districts shows the hegemony of AD in the centre and north of the country and the consolidation of the far right throughout the south, in a demonstration of how the left is losing ground to populist discourse.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
The centre of the political spectrum has shifted to the right, which means that AD is now in the centre of stage while socialist candidate Pedro Nuno Santos shifted his party further to the left at a time when sociologically the country seems to have shifted to the right. The abandonment of the traditional socialist electorate is because the left has not been able to deal with the problems that have arisen in recent years, such as the significant increase in immigration. In contrast, the outgoing prime minister’s coalition was more adept at reacting to an issue of concern to a large part of the population, but without falling into Chega’s radicalism.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
The left should therefore initiate a profound process of reflection and revision, from its organisation to its working methods, its programme, attitude, philosophy, strategy, and values, if it wants to recover and contribute to the social, economic and cultural progress of the country. Because, with an election campaign built around the favourite themes of the extreme right, the result could only favour their interests: whoever is on the agenda controls the terms of the debate and always obtains political dividends. As a result of its ability to set the agenda, the racist discourse is permeating the electorate. Chega obtains better results in municipalities where the resident foreign population is higher in percentage terms. Another voting pattern is the level of education, as support for the radical right has been inversely proportional in electoral districts with a higher percentage of inhabitants with higher education.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Thus, the two-party system that had marked fifty years of democracy in Portugal is dead, at least for the time being. Coming to terms with the outcome of these elections means realising that those who are committed to the prevalence of liberal democracy should focus more on understanding what unites them than what separates them. It also means understanding – and this applies to Portugal as much as to other European democracies – that there are no taboo issues if they are present in the aspirations and concerns of voters. They must be addressed, reducing the space for the xenophobic, racist, and authoritarian solutions of the radical right. And mainstream parties must also look in the mirror and understand that they have aged so badly that they manage to make it attractive to vote for parties that, despite failing to meet minimum standards of respectability, have become the best embodiment, for many, of the desire for change.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
We will have to wait for the post-election studies to find out the transfers of votes between parties, but the same pattern has been reproduced as in other countries. With the disappearance of the communist parties after 1989, in some European countries (not all), we are witnessing a worrying phenomenon: as we have seen in these elections, votes have been transferred directly from the PS to Chega, after having previously been transferred from the PCP. Just look at the map of the results: areas traditionally PCP and, later, PS, all painted with the deep blue colour of the radical right that manages to penetrate very different strata of the electorate. Probably by capturing large swathes of disaffected or disenfranchised voters who would hardly fit into the category of traditional far-right voters. Or even right-wing voters tout court<\/em>. For the far-right vote is a structural reality in the West, born out of growing economic and social inequalities, and bringing together young people with no future, declining sections of the middle class, disenchanted former communist voters, along with the disquiet generated by accelerating social change and fuelled by nationalist traditionalism.<\/p>\n\n\n\n In short, Chega has become the catch all party of Portuguese politics. Rather than being defined by a coherent ideology or characterised by its ability to bring together voters with ideological affinities, the party seems to have an enormous capacity to rally citizens around different kinds of discontent, alienation, and rootlessness. Andr\u00e9 Ventura’s party is, more than ever, a threat to Portuguese democracy, just as its co-religionists in other countries are a threat to liberal democracy. Not so much because it is an emulation of the fascist parties of the 1930s, but because the exploitation of resentment has been – on both the right and the left – one of the most effective weapons of social mobilisation and political destabilisation. More than heroic anti-fascist crusades rescued from past eras, more than the uncritical adoption of the discourse or methods of illiberal extremists, these times call for understanding, analysing and above all reversing the root causes of the various exclusions and marginalisations that inevitably lead to resentment.<\/p>\n\n\n\n Meanwhile, on the other side of the continent, the presidential elections in Romania have seen the unexpected winner being the mayor of Bucharest, Nicu\u0219or Dan, independent candidate with a liberal profile, even though the radical right-wing populist candidate George Simion obtained 40% of the votes in the first round, with the support of C\u0103lin Georgescu, winner of the December elections invalidated by the Constitutional Court on suspicion of Russian interference. The urban and Hungarian minority vote (around 20 percent of the population in Transylvania) was decisive for Dan’s victory, while Simion gained significant support in the diaspora and rural areas, in line with a pattern of cities vs. countryside that has been repeated in almost every election in recent years.<\/p>\n\n\n\n The new president’s first major challenge will be to form a government, as no party has a majority in parliament, and the Social Democrats (PSD), who won the December 2024 elections with only 22% of the vote, are weakened by their long years in power, the economic situation, and the low popularity of their leader. At the same time, the populist forces have 32% of the seats and George Simion’s five million votes may encourage many local leaders of traditional parties to join him. The new presidency thus begins in a context of disillusionment with the EU and deep social crisis. Romania’s economy is weighed down by persistent inflation, sustained industrial decline and agriculture weakened by Ukrainian competition. Resentment against the EU is fuelled by inequality and social frustrations while five million Romanians have emigrated, leaving an impoverished country with disillusioned youth, ghettoised areas, and a state unable to redistribute wealth. Romania oscillates between neoliberal authoritarianism and nationalist populism, in the context of a capitalism that no longer seems to need democracy to survive.<\/p>\n\n\n\n Photography: \u200bHeadquarters of the association<\/sub> 25 de abril, Lisbon.<\/sub> Marc Lepr\u00eatre.<\/sub><\/p>\n\n\n\n Maria Fari\u00f1a, Marta Dato and Maria Fuxi Cervera, trainees at the CETC, have participated to this issue of Idees d’actualitat<\/em>.<\/sub><\/p>\n\n\n\n <\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":" Fifty years after the Carnation Revolution and the founding of modern democracy in Portugal, last Sunday’s elections represent a structural change in the political system, and not just an accident. The large majority enjoyed by the two main democratic parties (PSD and PS) since the first free elections has disappeared. The founding party of democracy and the party first responsible for Portugal’s unquestionable European option – M\u00e1rio Soares’ PS – has lost its central place, while the nationalist and populist party that came into being less than six years ago has gained the status of opposition leader in Parliament. Chega\u2026<\/p>\n","protected":false},"featured_media":80987,"template":"","category_newspaper":[634],"segment":[],"subject":[],"class_list":["post-81002","newspaper","type-newspaper","status-publish","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category_newspaper-634"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"\n
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