{"id":81199,"date":"2025-07-03T03:47:34","date_gmt":"2025-07-03T01:47:34","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/revistaidees.cat\/analisis\/diari-de-les-idees\/idees-dactualitat-israel-iran-i-el-redisseny-de-lorient-mitja\/"},"modified":"2025-07-03T10:21:57","modified_gmt":"2025-07-03T08:21:57","slug":"idees-dactualitat-israel-iran-i-el-redisseny-de-lorient-mitja","status":"publish","type":"newspaper","link":"https:\/\/revistaidees.cat\/en\/analisis\/diari-de-les-idees\/idees-dactualitat-israel-iran-i-el-redisseny-de-lorient-mitja\/","title":{"rendered":"Idees d’actualitat – Israel, Iran and the reshaping of the Middle East"},"content":{"rendered":"\n

There are many ways to explain the so-called 12-day war unleashed by Israel against Iran. They all seem reasonable and finding the most suitable one is not an easy task. When Donald Trump returned to the White House last January, he accused his predecessor of being responsible for the wars that ravaged the world, especially Ukraine since the Russian invasion and the Middle East since the October 7 massacre in Israel. Five months later, the war in Ukraine is far from over, despite Trump’s announcement that he would end the conflict in the first 24 hours of his second term. Meanwhile, in the Middle East, Israel’s unprecedented attack on Iran threatens to further destabilize the region.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The simplest explanation for the Israeli offensive is that Netanyahu wants to divert attention from the atrocities being committed in Gaza, which can no longer be justified in any way and are denounced with increasing firmness by most of the countries that make up the international community. It is not, however, the most convincing explanation, although it may have this effect in Netanyahu’s favour, in the same way that the attacks on Iran allow him to reunite around him an Israeli public opinion that was turning against him in the face of the brutality of the indiscriminate attacks in Gaza and the lack of results for the liberation of the hostages, still in the hands of Hamas.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

A second reasoning justifies the attack on Iran, unprecedented in its scale and preparation, with the current weakness of the Ayatollahs’ regime, due to the destruction of a large part of its proxies in the region, most notably Hezbollah in Lebanon, and the fall of the regime of Bashar al-Assad, thus cutting off supply routes to Hamas. It should also be borne in mind that in October last year, an Iranian attack allowed Israel to retaliate that destroyed a large part of its anti-aircraft defences.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

But perhaps we must go back a little further in time to have a more careful overview. In early September 2023, during the G20 summit in New Delhi, Joe Biden announced the creation of a corridor that would link the Arabian Peninsula with Israel to the west and India to the east via a rail and sea line. All this with the aim of establishing a direct supply line for hydrocarbons, goods of various kinds and state-of-the-art technology. Israel would thus become the crossroads between Africa, Asia and Europe. At the same time, four Arab countries, Bahrain, Morocco, the United Arab Emirates and Sudan, signed the Abraham Accords<\/a>, joining Egypt and Jordan, which continue to cooperate with Israel on security and containment of anti-Zionist Arab currents. The Israeli press also spoke of an imminent pact with more Gulf states and, above all, of an agreement with Saudi Arabia. Weeks later, the Hamas attacks of October 7 took place, and nothing was the same in the Middle East.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Hamas’s military action put a stop to this ambitious economic plan and led to a new phase of Israeli territorial expansion in Palestine, although its pillars seemed well established: once the military offensive in Gaza began, India’s western ports opened a maritime supply line to Israel, while Arab allies \u2013 led by the Emirates and Jordan \u2013 established a land bridge to bring fruit and vegetables to Israeli. Cooperation with governments such as Morocco has increased in the last two years \u2013 Rabat has allowed the Israeli navy to refuel in its ports \u2013 and petro-monarchies such as Bahrain have multiplied their gestures of support for Israel.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

This spirit of collaboration has been showed again by the Israeli offensive against Iran. Jordan’s King Abdullah II has been congratulated by Tel Aviv for the effectiveness of its air forces in intercepting Iranian-launched ballistic and cruise missiles, and Tehran suspects that some Arab neighbours are doing more than just looking the other way when Israeli fighter jets pass through its airspace or Americans, French and British use their bases in the region to provide sensitive data on Iranian military installations. Indeed, the Arab countries of the region, despite officially condemning the Israeli offensive, do not hide their objective of weakening or even toppling the Shiite regime of the ayatollahs, thus becoming allies of Donald Trump whose priority in terms of economic geopolitics is precisely to maintain close ties with the Gulf monarchies, as he demonstrated on his first trip abroad, which was to Saudi Arabia and Abu Dhabi. Therefore, joining Israel in an attack on Iran should be considered as another chapter in this long-term agenda that aims to strengthen ties with countries that detest the Iranian regime.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Thus, amid the impasse<\/em> in Gaza, Netanyahu has seen the opportunity to neutralize the Iranian threat to his dream of reshaping the Middle East. But Iran’s resilience, which is receiving, according to Western intelligence reports, Chinese military support to strengthen its defensive systems and has the important support of Pakistan, raises new questions about Netanyahu’s warmongering strategy and his rush to resume his commercial, economic and business plans for a new Middle East.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

While the ceasefire remains fragile, the strategic framework is clear: war is the continuation of diplomacy, and diplomacy is now taking over from military operations. This is exactly the model applied in Lebanon last autumn when, after nearly a year of exchanges of attacks with Hezbollah, Israel acted. First, he struck with the pagers operation, disorienting the enemy while staging the illusion of an imminent ceasefire, to end up delivering the final blow that destroyed the headquarters of the Shiite militia and eliminated its leader, Hassan Nasrallah, along with almost the entire high command. A few weeks of ground operations of systematic destruction of Hezbollah’s military infrastructure south of the Litani River followed, and a ceasefire was finally announced.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The strategic logic is clear: use force in a targeted and controlled manner to achieve well-defined and reasonable military objectives and then hand over to U.S. diplomacy. In the current context of the massive attacks on Iran, what took place in Lebanon between mid-September and the end of November seems in retrospect like a dress rehearsal. Spectacular initial attacks followed by a methodical destruction of the targets, while waiting for the right moment to suspend the use of armed force. A couple of weeks after its launch, the Israeli operation entered a phase of diminishing marginal returns: each additional action contributed less and less to the strategic advantage that had been achieved during the first few days.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Beyond the material destruction inflicted on the Islamic Republic’s ballistic and nuclear capabilities, the blows to Iran\u2019s prestige and status on the regional and international stage have been devastating. Indeed, the agreements signed with China and Russia have not met Tehran’s expectations, as its allies have been inhibited over the past two weeks: Russia is too busy with the war in Ukraine and Beijing has deprived Iran of an important strategic asset, opposing the closure of the Strait of Hormuz through which 75% of its oil imports pass. The Global South and the BRICS have not proved to be of much help either, probably too busy trying to supersede the dollar as an international currency.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

In a region where the determination and forcefulness of war exert enormous power of influence over local leaders and narrative strategies, the lack of effectiveness in military adventures is seen as a sign of weakness. The Islamic Republic and Gaza are ultimately an obstacle to the great dream project of a region ruled by Tel Aviv, but the question arises as to whether Netanyahu, with his continuous flight forward, is not also and above all the brake on this reshaping imagined by his government.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\n\n\n\n

Photography: Air defense activity against hostile targets in Tehran. Seyed Mostafa Tehrani. Tasnim News Agency, Creative Commons Attribution 4.0.<\/sub><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Maria Fari\u00f1a, trainee at the CETC, has participated to this issue of Idees d’actualitat<\/em>.<\/sub><\/p>\n\n\n\n

<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

There are many ways to explain the so-called 12-day war unleashed by Israel against Iran. They all seem reasonable and finding the most suitable one is not an easy task. When Donald Trump returned to the White House last January, he accused his predecessor of being responsible for the wars that ravaged the world, especially Ukraine since the Russian invasion and the Middle East since the October 7 massacre in Israel. Five months later, the war in Ukraine is far from over, despite Trump’s announcement that he would end the conflict in the first 24 hours of his second term.\u2026<\/p>\n","protected":false},"featured_media":81141,"template":"","category_newspaper":[634],"segment":[],"subject":[],"class_list":["post-81199","newspaper","type-newspaper","status-publish","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category_newspaper-634"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"\nIdees d'actualitat - Israel, Iran and the reshaping of the Middle East – IDEES<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/revistaidees.cat\/en\/analisis\/diari-de-les-idees\/idees-dactualitat-israel-iran-i-el-redisseny-de-lorient-mitja\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Idees d'actualitat - Israel, Iran and the reshaping of the Middle East – IDEES\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"There are many ways to explain the so-called 12-day war unleashed by Israel against Iran. 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