{"id":83203,"date":"2026-02-26T08:21:46","date_gmt":"2026-02-26T06:21:46","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/revistaidees.cat\/analisis\/diari-de-les-idees\/idees-dactualitat-ucraina-4-anys-despres-de-lordre-normatiu-a-la-logica-transaccional\/"},"modified":"2026-02-26T10:58:00","modified_gmt":"2026-02-26T08:58:00","slug":"idees-dactualitat-ucraina-4-anys-despres-de-lordre-normatiu-a-la-logica-transaccional","status":"publish","type":"newspaper","link":"https:\/\/revistaidees.cat\/en\/analisis\/diari-de-les-idees\/idees-dactualitat-ucraina-4-anys-despres-de-lordre-normatiu-a-la-logica-transaccional\/","title":{"rendered":"Idees d&#8217;actualitat &#8211; Ukraine, 4 years on: from  normative order to transactional rationale"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">In February 2022 we headlined the<a href=\"https:\/\/revistaidees.cat\/en\/analisis\/diari-de-les-idees\/diari-de-les-idees-56-ucraina-limpossible-sha-fet-possible\/\"> editorial<\/a> of <em>Idees d&#8217;actualitat<\/em>: the impossible became possible. Four years later, the war in Ukraine has become, beyond the human drama, the disturbing laboratory of a new type of international order where the logic of spheres of influence, personalism in decision-making and transactional negotiation between leaders intersect. The risk is not only that the conflict will drag on indefinitely, but that its political and legal significance will be transformed. What began as a blatant aggression against the sovereignty of a state can end up being reconfigured as a negotiable dispute between the powerful, in which territory, security guarantees and even natural resources become mere pieces of exchange.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">This conceptual change is very dangerous because war would no longer be posed in terms of international law, territorial integrity, and normative order, but as a question that could be resolved through an agreement that is the result of an imposition, an agreement between leaders who operate according to criteria of convenience and correlation of forces. International security would cease to have a stable legal architecture, based on multilateral institutions and universal principles, and would instead become an imposed system of conflict management.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Since 1945, Europe and the United States have advocated\u2014with varying coherence, but with explicit will\u2014a rules-based international order: prohibition of the use of force, respect for sovereignty, peaceful resolution of disputes, and the primacy of international law. This imperfect universalism has been the foundation of European stability for decades. The Russian aggression against Ukraine was, from the outset, a direct violation of this framework.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">However, the current evolution of diplomatic action suggests a drift. The conflict risks being redefined not as a violation that demands reparation and restoration of legality, but as a disagreement between powers that can be managed through reciprocal concessions. In this emerging paradigm, the occupied territory is no longer necessarily an object of restitution, but a bargaining chip. Security guarantees are not binding legal commitments, but elements of a transaction. Even natural resources can enter into the negotiation.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">This shift reflects a vision of the international system structured around the discretionary exercise of power. Medium or small states cease to be subjects full of rights to become spaces on which the great powers project their competence. Sovereignty is relativized; Force becomes the determining criterion. If the war in Ukraine ends up being resolved through a pact that de <em>facto<\/em> enshrines&nbsp; a territorial partition or a limitation of its sovereignty in exchange for temporary stabilisation, we would be facing the reactivation of instruments of the past. It would be an agreement that would recall stages prior to post-1945 universalism, when force and the distribution of zones of influence prevailed over law.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The problem, however, is not just moral; it is strategic. A peace based on imposition or asymmetrical negotiation would set a precedent. Other actors might consider that the use of force, combined with diplomatic imposition, may end up generating territorial or political benefits. The deterrent effect of international law would thus be eroded. This drift is reinforced by a growing personalization of foreign policy. Relations between states tend to be channelled through direct interaction between leaders, often outside traditional institutional frameworks. Multilateral diplomacy, with its procedures and balances, is giving way to direct negotiation between leaders seeking quick and visible results.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">In this context, war can be perceived as a problem to be solved through a major political transaction. The language of principles is replaced by that of efficiency; that of legality, for that of opportunity. Bilateral summits take on disproportionate centrality, and commitments may depend more on the will or personal style of leaders than on lasting institutional consensus. This dynamic only generates instability. Agreements based on personal relationships are inherently fragile: they can be reversed with a change of leadership or with an alteration in the correlation of forces.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Faced with these developments, European governments are in an awkward position. If they find that traditional diplomatic channels do not work with certain interlocutors, they may be tempted to adopt an attitude of accommodation. Not necessarily toward Moscow, but toward Washington, if the White House chooses to prioritize a quick fix over a just solution. This accommodation does not imply an explicit renunciation of principles, but it does imply a pragmatic adaptation to a new reality of power. European leaders may feel compelled to modulate their positions in order to maintain transatlantic cohesion, even if this means accepting negotiating frameworks that shift the centre of gravity from law to compromise.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The most worrying outcome of this development would be an agreement that enshrines territorial gains obtained by force or imposes limitations on Ukraine&#8217;s foreign and security policy. Even if it were labelled as commitment, this would reflect a fundamental asymmetry in the ability to pressure. Such a peace could offer immediate, but precarious, stabilization. It would not address the root causes of the conflict or fully restore the violated legality. Rather, it would freeze the dispute on terms favourable to the one who initiated the aggression, with the latent risk of future aggression.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">In the long term, the cost to Europe would be high. The credibility of its adhesion to a rules-based order would be called into question. States located on the eastern borders would perceive a reduction in the implicit guarantees of solidarity. And the message sent to other regions would be unequivocal: force can reconfigure borders if combined with negotiating skill.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Europe is therefore faced with a structural decision: adapt to an era of influence-sharing and personalistic agreements or reaffirm the normative model that has underpinned its stability for almost eight decades. How the war in Ukraine is resolved will not only determine its future but will define the kind of order that will prevail on the continent. If peace is based on principles and institutions, despite all its imperfections, Europe will be able to claim the continuity of the project begun in 1945. If, on the other hand, a logic of transactions between the powerful is consolidated, the continent will enter a more uncertain stage, in which security will depend less on law and more on the will \u2013 always variable \u2013 of those in power.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">In short, the debate on Ukraine is also a debate on the nature of the international order. It is not just a question of putting an end to the fighting, but of deciding what kind of peace is to be built and according to what rules. The shape of European security \u2013 and that of the rest of the world \u2013 in the coming decades will depend on this choice.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<hr class=\"wp-block-separator has-alpha-channel-opacity is-style-dots\"\/>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><sub>Photography: anti-war signs at the Russian embassy in London. 27 February 2022. Creative Commons Attribution-Share Alike 4.0 International license.<\/sub><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>In February 2022 we headlined the editorial of Idees d&#8217;actualitat: the impossible became possible. Four years later, the war in Ukraine has become, beyond the human drama, the disturbing laboratory of a new type of international order where the logic of spheres of influence, personalism in decision-making and transactional negotiation between leaders intersect. The risk is not only that the conflict will drag on indefinitely, but that its political and legal significance will be transformed. What began as a blatant aggression against the sovereignty of a state can end up being reconfigured as a negotiable dispute between the powerful, in\u2026<\/p>\n","protected":false},"featured_media":83182,"template":"","category_newspaper":[679],"segment":[],"subject":[],"class_list":["post-83203","newspaper","type-newspaper","status-publish","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category_newspaper-679"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v28.8 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>Idees d&#039;actualitat - Ukraine, 4 years on: from normative order to transactional rationale &#8211; IDEES<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/revistaidees.cat\/en\/analisis\/diari-de-les-idees\/idees-dactualitat-ucraina-4-anys-despres-de-lordre-normatiu-a-la-logica-transaccional\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Idees d&#039;actualitat - Ukraine, 4 years on: from normative order to transactional rationale &#8211; IDEES\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"In February 2022 we headlined the editorial of Idees d&#8217;actualitat: the impossible became possible. Four years later, the war in Ukraine has become, beyond the human drama, the disturbing laboratory of a new type of international order where the logic of spheres of influence, personalism in decision-making and transactional negotiation between leaders intersect. The risk is not only that the conflict will drag on indefinitely, but that its political and legal significance will be transformed. 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