The war involving the United States, Israel and Iran is not merely another episode of instability in the Middle East; it is a geopolitical earthquake that tests the very nature of the European Union at a moment of accelerated global transformation. Running in parallel with the war in Ukraine, this conflict lays bare the extent to which Europe remains trapped between structural dependencies, internal divisions and a growing loss of influence on the international stage. The question is no longer simply how to respond to crises, but whether the EU is capable of redefining itself as a strategic actor in a world increasingly governed by transactional power politics.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
One of the most immediate consequences of the war is the surge in oil and gas prices, once again exposing Europe\u2019s energy vulnerability. The EU remains heavily reliant on imports of fossil fuels, making it particularly sensitive to any geopolitical disruption. This dependence is not new, yet the recurrence of crises\u2014from Russia\u2019s invasion of Ukraine to the present conflict\u2014demonstrates that the issue is structural rather than cyclical. Even so, last week\u2019s European Council summit failed to provide a meaningful response. The growing likelihood of a protracted war scenario makes it clear that Europe could face a genuine energy crisis within weeks\u2014not only due to rising costs, but also because of dwindling reserves. A telling example: Qatar has already informed Italy and Belgium that it will be unable to honour its liquefied natural gas supply contracts.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Faced with this reality, the summit failed to devise a coherent strategy. European leaders limited themselves to allowing member states to adopt temporary, targeted and limited measures to cushion the impact of rising oil and gas prices on households and businesses. The implications are profound. On the one hand, such measures strain European economies, raise costs for citizens and erode industrial competitiveness. On the other, they constrain the EU\u2019s strategic autonomy, forcing it into a reactive rather than anticipatory posture. In this context, accelerating decarbonisation is not merely a climate imperative but a geopolitical necessity: reducing energy dependence ultimately means reducing political vulnerability.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Beyond its economic impact, the war with Iran raises an equally troubling issue: the erosion of the rules-based international order. While most European leaders have avoided clearly condemning the illegality of the conflict under international law, there is broad legal consensus on the matter. This ambiguity is far from trivial. The European Union has historically defined itself as a champion of multilateralism and a rules-based global order. Yet in a landscape dominated by power politics\u2014where actors such as the United States act unilaterally\u2014Europe appears torn between upholding its principles and adapting to a harsher reality.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
This tension between values and interests constitutes one of today\u2019s central strategic dilemmas and carries a double risk. First, inconsistency undermines European credibility: it is difficult to denounce Russia\u2019s war in Ukraine while downplaying another breach of international law. Second, it may contribute to the normalisation of the use of force, a development that ultimately disadvantages actors like the EU, which lack military capabilities comparable to those of major powers.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
The conflict also highlights the Union\u2019s internal divisions. Divergent responses among member states\u2014from more critical positions to tactical alignments with Washington\u2014reflect the absence of a genuinely common foreign policy. This fragmentation not only weakens Europe\u2019s capacity for action but also condemns it to irrelevance in key diplomatic processes, as evidenced in international negotiations on Ukraine, Gaza, Venezuela, Cuba and Iran.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
In a world evolving towards a system of continental powers, such weakness is deeply problematic. Europe possesses the resources\u2014market size, human capital and technological capacity\u2014to act as a major power, but lacks the political cohesion required to do so. The result is a paradox: the EU has the potential to be a central player yet behaves as a secondary one. The war with Iran is sharpening this reality. While other actors set the agenda, Europe is often left managing the consequences as best it can\u2014energy crises, migration flows and security tensions. This reactive dynamic is incompatible with the EU\u2019s stated ambition of strategic autonomy and underscores the urgent need for a robust and coherent defence policy. The coincidence of two major conflicts\u2014Ukraine and Iran\u2014demonstrates that Europe may increasingly face multiple simultaneous crises. In this context, its long-standing dependence on the United States becomes ever more problematic, particularly if Washington continues to pursue unilateral strategies or shifts its focus to other regions in a climate where mutual trust appears to have been irreparably damaged.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Accordingly, a common European defence and security policy entails strengthening the defence industry and enhancing indigenous capabilities. This reflects a broader paradigm shift in which defence is no longer solely a matter of security, but also of innovation, industrial policy and technological sovereignty. Yet this shift requires political decisions that are often hindered by intergovernmental logic and national reluctance. Without deeper integration, the EU risks remaining a weak link in an increasingly militarised world.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Finally, the war carries domestic implications that cannot be ignored. Rising energy prices, the potential arrival of new migration flows and a growing sense of insecurity may fuel social discontent and the rise of populist forces. In this context of overlapping tensions and a broader surge in populism, any agenda focused on competitiveness or security will be unsustainable without strong social policies\u2014affordable housing, quality employment and social cohesion. This is particularly relevant given that war can act as a catalyst for pre-existing tensions. European history shows that economic and geopolitical crises often have profound political consequences. To ignore this dimension would be a strategic mistake.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
The war with Iran is not only a threat; it is also a mirror reflecting the European Union\u2019s structural weaknesses. Energy dependence, normative ambiguity, political fragmentation and military insufficiency together form a troubling picture. Yet this crisis may also serve as a catalyst for change.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
The pivotal question is whether Europe can move from diagnosis to action. That will require bold decisions: accelerating the energy transition, deepening political integration, building genuine strategic autonomy and renewing its commitment to foundational values. In an increasingly uncertain world, inaction is no longer an option. The European Union\u2019s future will be mostly determined by how it responds to crises such as this. The challenge is not merely to manage the present, but to define the role it seeks to play in the international system of the twenty-first century.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Photography: European Council meeting room. Tauno T\u00f5hk. \u00a0Creative Commons\u00a0Attribution 2.0. International License.<\/sub><\/p>\n\n\n\n <\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":" The war involving the United States, Israel and Iran is not merely another episode of instability in the Middle East; it is a geopolitical earthquake that tests the very nature of the European Union at a moment of accelerated global transformation. Running in parallel with the war in Ukraine, this conflict lays bare the extent to which Europe remains trapped between structural dependencies, internal divisions and a growing loss of influence on the international stage. The question is no longer simply how to respond to crises, but whether the EU is capable of redefining itself as a strategic actor in\u2026<\/p>\n","protected":false},"featured_media":83333,"template":"","category_newspaper":[679],"segment":[],"subject":[],"class_list":["post-83346","newspaper","type-newspaper","status-publish","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category_newspaper-679"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"\n